ACS Briefing on Climate Change. Policy, Science and Business Perspectives

Transcription

1 ACS Briefing on Climate Change Keith Cole Policy, Science and Business Perspectives June 1

2 Autos are 20% of U.S. Emissions of CO2 According to EPA*, autos account for 20% of all man-made carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. TRANSPORTATION SECTOR The Transportation Sector, which includes trucking, airlines, ships and boats, railroads and autos, produces about 32% of U.S. CO 2 emissions. 2% Agriculture 19% Residential 16% Commercial 12% Other Transportation 20% Passenger Cars & Light Trucks 31% Industry * 2 2

3 Technology Strategy on Energy Security and Climate Change Displacing Oil and Reducing GHGs with Biofuels and Electricity 3

4 More MPG = Less CO 2 EISA CAR + LDT FUEL ECONOMY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS FUEL ECONOMY (MPG) CO 2 EMISSIONS (G/MI) Sources: Fuel Economy: Air Improvement Resource Draft Combined Car+LDT Estimate for 2007 Energy Bill CO 2 Conversion: ibs CO2/gallon, from EIA, Air Improvement Resource, Inc. 4

5 Reductions in the Transportation Sector Must look to all three legs of the stool in the transport sector Vehicle efficiency Fuel carbon content Customer behavior/vmt/built Environment/System Efficiency Efficiency gains can help offset projected VMT, but will not achieve the goal of 60-80% reductions in Greenhouse Gases CAFE gains largely offset by growth in population/vmt Can we envision technologies that could reach these goals? Second Generation Biofuels in a FFV Plug in hybrids/e-revs charged by a clean electric grid Fuel Cell vehicles running on hydrogen from low carbon sources Today, these vehicle technologies don t generally achieve this goal because the fuel is not sufficiently low carbon Each is directionally correct and getting cleaner If they constitute most vehicle sales by 2030, we have 20 years to clean up the fuel Third leg must also be addressed potentially more complex and more diffuse 5

6 The Third Leg Reducing Traffic Congestion: According to the Texas Transportation Institute, Americans annually waste 2.9 billion gallons of fuel (32 million metric tons of CO 2 ) because of traffic congestion. Policymakers can help us save fuel and cut CO 2 emissions by reducing traffic congestion. Driving More Efficiently: The U.S. Department of Energy & U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have identified specific actions drivers can take to improve their fuel economy 6 6

7 USCAP principles and recommendations set out in A Call for Action Economy-wide, market-based cap and trade with complementary measures Emissions reduction targets in yrs Long-term goal of 60% to 80% from current levels by 2050 How do we get there? 7

8 General Structure of Cap and Trade Total emissions capped at declining levels Price of allowances generally passed on to consumers In the Transport sector primary impact will be on the price of gas (~10 cents per $10/ton CO2) Lieberman-Warner also includes a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) Refiners Manufacturers Utilities Refiners and importers of fossil fuel remit allowances equal to the tons of CO2 emitted when their product is burned Utilities and large manufacturers must remit allowances equal to the tons of CO2 equivalents they emit some allowances allocated for free to mitigate program impacts, others acquired by auction 8

9 Cap and Trade Timelines for Reductions Pew Center for Climate: Boxer-Lieberman-Warner includes an overall goal of 87% reduction in GHG emissions, however, emissions from uncovered sectors may continue to grow 9

10 Cap and Trade Timelines for Reductions Pew Center for Climate: Boxer-Lieberman-Warner includes an overall goal of 87% reduction in GHG emissions, however, emissions from uncovered sectors may continue to grow 10

11 EPA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner: autos (under EISA) will reduce a greater percentage of CO2 by 2020 than any other sector under 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Other Sectors Under S.2191 Autos under EISA CAFE Sources: S2191 percent benefit estimated from EPA's Reference and S2191 ADAGE model cases in "EPA Analysis of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008, March 14, 2008, Table: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2020, page 125. HR6-CAFÉ standard percent benefit estimated from EISA 2020 target of 35 mpg car+ldt converted to CO 2, and 2006 estimated car +LDT 25 mpg converted to CO 2 (CO2 = lbs/gallon from EIA,

12 Role of Technology Mandates under an Economy-wide Cap Total emissions from under the cap are fixed Mandates that force reductions from one sector simply allows other sectors to abate less/emit more GHGs Net effects are to: shift costs from utilities/ratepayers to OEMs/car buyers reduce market price of CO2 raise net social cost NO add l reductions Capped GHG emissions decline at scheduled rates Refiners Manufacturers Utilities Example : CAFE Emissions Increases vs. no CAFE 12

13 Vehicle Parc versus GDP 900 Vehicles per 1,000 citizens South Korea Italy Australia France Germany Canada UK Switzerland USA Japan 200 Economic Growth 100 India 0 China 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita / 13

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