Partnership for the and Drexel. Delaware Estuary University

Transcription

1 NaturalResources andclimate Change in the Delaware Estuary: Assessing Vulnerability and Fostering Adaptation Danielle Kreeger Partnership for the and Drexel Delaware Estuary University June 7, 2012

2 Recognize Problem 2012 Assess Vulnerability & Prioritize Solutions Translate &E Engage Track Change

3 3 case studies science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp

4 Questions How will climate change here? How will changes impact resources? What are our options for making these reso ources more resilient? How do we prioritize tactics? What if we don t take action? (i (since every dollar is precious)

5 How Will Climate Change? as per Dr. Ray Najjar Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years

6 Climate Momentum Mitigation critically important for the long term (grandkids) Difference between a rise of 2 versus 4 degrees centigrade translates into a dff difference between local lversus mass extinction Adaptation critically important for the short term (Kids) No amount of mitigation will stem the 1 degree centigrade rise in temperatures expected over the next 25 years we must adapt

7 How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010

8 How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level m by 2100 (or more) local lrates >> global l Salinity

9 How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Salinity Storms? Growing Season

10 Drinking Water >16 million people Philadelphia 1.4 million New York City Anticipated population growth of 83% by % used for power generation and industry Increasing deman nds for industry, e.g. shale drilling

11 Drinking Water Vulner rability Sea Level Rise Saltwater Intrusion Flooding / Storm Surge Precipitation Changes Storms and Flooding Salinity Rise Drought Infrastructure Erosion Degraded dsourcewater Sea Level Rise Drinking Water Vulnerabilities Wild Fires / Lightening i

12 Drinking Water Adaptaation Options Infrastructure p protection and u upgrades pg New treatment & distribution system Storm water control Source water protection Wastewater disinfection Protect river flow to offset salttwater

13 Drinking Water Tough Questions How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? Will more reservoirs be needed and where? Where should ldinfrastructur e be protected?

14 Coastal Wetlands Abundant Diverse Benefits: Flood Protection o Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Capture

15 2012 State of th he Estuary Report Rapid loss of acreage an nd degraded wetland health

16 Coastal Wetland Vulnerability Freshwater Tidal Marshes Salinity Rise Barriers to Landward Migration Tidal Range Salt Marshess Sea Level Rise Storms and Wind Wave Erosion Barriers to Landward Migration

17 Coastal Wetlan nds Future >25% Loss of tid dal wetlands Conversion of >40,000 acres Uplands to Wetlands Conversion of >100,000 ac cres Wetlands to Water Loss of Benefits >> Acreage Losses

18 Coastal Wetlands Adaptation Options Living shorelines Buffers Sediment management Structure Setbacks Wetland Tough Choices Where will they be converted to open water? Where can we save them? Where is strategic retreat the best option? Strategic Retreat Protect river flow to offset saltwater

19 Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Example: Delaware Estuary Living Shoreli ne Initiative Kreeger 19

20 Bivalve Shellfish (oyste ers, mussels, clams) 60 Species Diverse Benefits: Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Stabilize Erosion Commercial Fishery No mussels 8 adult mussels Slides from Dick Neves, VA Tech

21 Nature s s Benefits Bivalve Sh hellfish are Ecosystem Ecosystem m Engineers Engineers M l Beds B d Mussel DK 6/23/10 CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Oyster Reefs Kreeger

22 Shellfish Vulnerability Freshwater Mussels Imperiled Marine Mussels Losing Habitat Oysters DRBC Salt water

23 Shellfish Adaptation Options Shellplanting for Oysters Propagate Mussels Monitoring & Research Living Shorelines Water Quality & Flow Management Fish Passage Restoration Riparian Restoration

24 Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Headwaters to Sea 1. Non-tidal 2. Intertidal 3. Subtidal Kreeger 24

25 Climate Change + Other Changes Marcellus Shale Dredging g Ecological Flows Spills Withdrawals Added Complexity Land Use Change Development Emerging Pollutan nts

26 Take Home Messages Not all changes will be bad, but many more losers than winners Need a Paradigm Shift: restore for the future rather than the past, and expect dynamic rather than static conditions Adaptation requires investment to protect lives andlivelihoods Proactive investment today will save money in the long term due to compoundingof of ecosystem services Adaptation is underway but hampered by funding, especially here

27 Delaware Estuary Pilot wareestuary.org