Future Dr. Ulrich Eberl. the most important technologies in the decades to come. Innovation Communications Siemens AG and author Life in 2050

Transcription

1 Future 2050 the most important technologies in the decades to come Dr. Ulrich Eberl Innovation Communications Siemens AG and author Life in 2050 Ulrich Eberl, 2015

2 Which factors will determine our world until 2050? Megatrends global and irreversible Demographic change Urbanization Resource scarcity and climate change Globalization of the economy Ubiquity of information and communication technology in all areas of life (Digitization) Measures being taken today The children who are born today The houses that are built today The power plants that are constructed today The greenhouse gases that are emitted today. will determine how the world will look in 2050 Kondratiev cycles Page 2

3 Approx. 9.7 billion people in 2050 What do the megatrends tell us about the future? 1. Demographic Change Three times as many people over 65 one billion more retirees than today Page 3

4 In 2050, there will be almost as many people living in cities as live on the whole earth today 2. Urbanization By 2050, cities in the developing countries and in the emerging markets will have three billion more inhabitants Page 4

5 3. Digitization 4. Globalization The computing power, storage capacity, and data transmission rate of microchips will be 1,000 times higher than today China will surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy 5. Resource Scarcity and Climate Change Resource and energy consumption could double if business continues as usual Page 5

6 We re already using nature 50 percent Was sind wesentliche Trends faster than bis it 2050 can regenerate.? Global denken We would need three Earths in 2050 if business continues as usual! Forest land Urban land Grazing land Carbon footprint Crop land Fishing Source: Ministry of Environment, New Zealand Ökologischer Fußabdruck Ecological nach Footprint Mathis according Wackernagel, to Mathis Wackernagel, Global Footprint Global Footprint Network Network Page 6

7 The world hungers for raw materials What will be the key trends until 2050? Thinking globally UNEP forecast: 140 billion tons of raw materials will be consumed in 2050 if business continues as usual more than twice as much as today! Resource scarcity will urge a strong demand for Design2Recycle and Cradle-to-Cradle concepts in future recycling economies Page 7

8 An important part of the solution is the transformation of our energy systems: Renewables: sun, wind, water, biomass, geothermal energy Smart grids, Internet of Energy, energy management High-voltage direct-current transmission at 800 kv Energy efficiency, insulation, heat management Page 8

9 What energy efficiency can achieve two examples Buildings Modern passive houses use 90% less energy for heating than 30 years ago Smart technology (home automation, sensors) cuts energy consumption by 30 50% Electric motors in industry 20 million large electric motors worldwide. Equal 65% of power consumption in industry More efficient motors and controls can cut power consumption by up to 60%. Amortization < 2 years Page 9

10 The energy revolution is an intricate puzzle The energy revolution involves more than "just" Germany's discontinuation of nuclear energy by The expansion of renewable sources of energy (80% by 2050) and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (80% by 2050) require many measures that interact perfectly: 1. Efficient energy consumption: Buildings, industry, mobility, household appliances (Energy management, heat recovery, control of motors, drives etc.) 2. Renewable sources of energy at competitive costs 3. Electricity highways, expansion of long-distance networks 4. Highly-efficient power plants that can be started quickly 5. CO 2 separation and CO 2 usage 6. New energy storage systems: Hydrogen from electrolysis, batteries in buildings and e-cars 7. Smart grids, Internet of Energy, distributed energy generation 8. Demand management 9. Smart financing Page 10

11 Which energy carrier can replace oil by 2050? We are entering a new electricity age Electricity is becoming a universal energy carrier, because it can be produced in a very environmentally friendly manner, transmitted efficiently, and consumed with few losses in all areas of life. First 2-seat purely electric airplane Page 11

12 Page 12 Electric cars will dominate city traffic by 2050 as robots on wheels

13 Autonomous driving will be ubiquitous in 2050 due to a variety of sensors and the Internet of Smart Cars Digitally connected cars Intelligent cars communicate with each other and the infrastructure They know where to find free parking spaces and charging stations They know all the favorite spots, are constantly connected to the Internet and to the smart home and smart phone of their users They are part of the energy markets, take advantage of best prices and exchange energy with the grid Page 13

14 Digitization changes the world in every aspect of life Up to the year 2000, the world in total generated 2 exabytes of information. It now generates that much data in one day! 40,000 30,000 20,000 Comparison with books Per day the world creates 10x more data than are written in all books together 200 billion operations/sec Premium smartphones of today are as fast as the best supercomputer of ,000 Exabytes In 2020: > 37% of all data in the cloud Source: IDC's Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, December PB = 1 million GB, 1 EB = 1 billion GB Page 14

15 200 billion objects collecting data today 15 billion of them communicate via the Internet Some examples from different industries: Power generation 9 petabytes of sensor data per 1,000 turbines per year. To optimize power output and to minimize emissions Smart grids 1 million smart meters generate 1 petabyte per year. In 2020: 800 mio. smart meters worldwide Medical imaging 500 petabytes of data in healthcare today. Predicted to grow to 25,000 petabytes by 2020 = 50-fold! Medical systems IBM Watson Oncology Advisor scans millions of medical texts in order to offer diagnosis and therapy advice Traffic management 2 petabytes of data per year for an average traffic management system (e.g. in the city of Potsdam) Product development Product data of one camera has grown from 1.8 terabytes to 296 terabytes = 160-fold! 1 petabyte = 1 million gigabytes = 1,000 terabytes Page 15

16 Smartphones were only the beginning: All things are going to be smart in the Internet of Everything Page 16

17 Why do systems need to be smart? Smart phone smart car smart home smart grid Advantages? Smart car: Comfort and safety accident-free driving Smart home: Comfort, safety, and saving energy sensors, connection to the Internet and maintenance services Smart grid: Reliability and saving energy balances supply and demand and their linking? Page 17 Smart cars and smart homes as parts of the smart grid

18 And the smart, digital factory: Industry 4.0 a highly automated, yet flexible and energy efficient production Page 18

19 Smart sensors and actuators Intelligent labels with product history. Self organization and partly autonomous processes Page 19

20 Condition monitoring, remote services a smart data application Networked intelligence enables predictive maintenance and energy optimization Page 20

21 Able to learn, ready to use also in dangerous environments Our colleague - the robot Robots are productive, humans are flexible Therefore: Let s work together! Page 21

22 Also at home: the (organic) LED revolution, light walls / ceilings and electronic newspapers personal robots tiny sensors everywhere Page 22

23 3D Internet (without glasses) and high-tech in the kitchen Page 23

24 even some cities are going to be smart Smart Cities Sensors measure energy and water usage as well as traffic and emission Intelligent data analysis enables useful forecasts and shows optimization potential Dynamic energy prices are a lever for demand management Buildings with solar cells and batteries are energy traders connected via swarm intelligence Page 24

25 Smart energy, smart mobility, smart homes We ll see multi-trillion euro/dollar markets emerging! Page 25

26 My best wishes for your future! Be it in smart cities Page 26

27 or in a more natural environment! Page 27

28 A few facts about the books Life in 2050 (English) and Zukunft 2050 (German) Target groups Students, young adults about to make a career choice Researchers, professors, managers, enterpreneurs, politicians Plus anyone else interested in the future The book's aims Create knowledge: What are the key trends, how do innovations arise, which professions are in demand? No fear of the future: Get people excited about solutions Encourage people to contribute: Help shape tomorrow s world Pleasant reading! 240 pages, illustrated throughout, Available since February 2011 German edition Zukunft 2050 now in its fifth edition Also see (English) and (blog in German) Page 28