PLANNING POLICY AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION: DO THE RESULTS MATCH THE HYPE?

Transcription

1 PLANNING POLICY AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION: DO THE RESULTS MATCH THE HYPE? Timothy F. Welch University of Maryland National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education ACSP 53rd Annual Conference November 2, 2012

2 The Imperative Reduce GHG emissions and atmospheric C0 2 Concentrations before 450PPM To hold a +2 o c global tempraturechange Avoid catastrophic anthropomorphic climate destabilization CO2 (PPM) R² = Atmospheric CO2, Mauna Loa Observatory (Scripps / NOAA / ESRL) Year CO2 Concentration 450 (PPM) 350 (PPM) CO2 Trend

3 New Evidence Total amount of CO 2 that can be emitted between 2000 and % chance of maintaining a 2 o C warming (compared to pre-industrial period) 886gigatons From 2000 to 2011: 337gigatons CO 2 emitted 549gigatons of CO 2 left for next 38 years M. Meinshausen et al., Nature 458, 1158 (2009).

4 Research Questions How likely are state climate strategies to meet GHG reduction policy goals? How well do the policies conform to the new evidence on needed GHG reduction needs?

5 Policy Targets International Origin IPCC s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report -Annex I (developed) countries need to reduce GHG emissions25-40% 1990 levels by 2020, and 80-95% 1990 levels by 2050, in order to stabilize 450 ppm CO2-eq concentration, after a temporary overshoot by 50 ppm IPCC AR4 WGIII.Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4(Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007), chapter 13, Box 13.7 on page 776.

6 Policy Targets National Policies ACT Climate Stewardship Act of 2007 (Olver-Gilchrest) H.R.620 & H.R (Died at Introduction and Committee, respectively) Global Warming Reduction Act of 2007 (Kerry-Snowe) S.485 (Failed) Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act (McCain-Lieberman) S.280 (Failed 2003/5/7) Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (Sanders-Boxer) S. 309 (Proposed ) Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008, S.3036 (Died in Senate) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman) H.R (Died in Senate) Executive Branch EPA can regulate CO 2 as a pollutant Pledge to the United Nations Energy Tax Prevention Act of 2011 (Upton) H.R.910 (Passed House April 07, 2011) TARGET 70% 1990 level in % 1990 level in % 1990 level in % 1990 level in % 2005 level in % 2005 level in % 2005 level in 2020 Bars EPA from taking any GHG related action

7 Policy Targets State Policies st Target date % % st Taret Level n= % % % % buiness as usual nd Target date % % % nd Taret Level 75% % % % % % % 2005 n=18 80% 2006 Source: Author s Calculations

8 Policy Targets Maryland Policy GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACT OF 2009 Reduce statewide GHG emissions 25% from 2006 levels by 2020 By 2011 MDE to: develop a 2006 Statewide greenhouse gas emissions inventory; develop a projected business as usual emissions inventory for 2020; and develop/publish for public comment a proposed plan Adopt final plan to achieve reductions, by 2012

9 Policy Targets Maryland Policy GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACT OF 2009 Plan must ensure: no loss of existing jobs in the State s manufacturing sector; net increase in State jobs net economic benefitto the State s economy; opportunities for new green jobs in the energy and low carbon technology fields; and no adverse impact on the reliability and affordability of electricity service and fuel supplies

10 Kaya Identity = XX 1 X Population 2 X Per Capita GDP 3 4 Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity =

11 Current Strategies T-1. Maryland Clean Cars Program T-2. National Medium- & Heavy-Duty Fuel Efficiency Standard T-3. Clean Fuels Standard T-4. Transportation and Climate Initiative T-5. Public Transportation Initiatives* T-6. Double Transit Ridership by 2020* T-7. Intercity Transportation Initiatives* T-8. Bike and Pedestrian Initiatives* T-9. Pricing Initiatives T-10. Transportation Technology Initiatives T-11. Electric Vehicle Initiatives T-12. Low Emitting Vehicle Initiatives T-13. Evaluating GHG Emissions from Major New Projects T-14. Airport Initiatives T-15. Port Initiatives T-16. Freight and Freight Rail Strategies T-17. Renewable Fuels Standard* T-18. CAFE Standards (MY ) T-19. Promote Hybrid & Electric Vehicles T-20. Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance

12 Target in Context In 2010 Total GHG reduction less than 9% in midst of greatest recession since 1930s 26% industrial reduction, due to lower activity 15% power plant reduction, due to natural gas prices 6.5% transport, less commuting less activity Increases in commercial and residential All likely temporary reductions, expect increases Recommended reductions greater than entire GHG output of: Commercial, Residential, Industrial, sectors combined

13 Baseline/Current/Target GHG MMT CO Target 0 Maryland Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation Electric Power

14 Energy Consumption by Source

15 Historical CAFE Standards and Average US Fleet Economy Average MPG LDV MPG New Method CAFE Year

16 Price Assumption CPI Gas Price (per gallon) Year CPI (projected) Annual (Ave.) CPI Gas Price (nominal)

17 55 Historical & Projected CAFE Standards and Average US Fleet Economy CAFE LDV MPG Poly. (LDV MPG) R² = Average MPG Year

18 Inventory and Goals 18,000 CO2 By County 16,000 14,000 CO2 (tons/day) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Target (SHARE)

19 $0.16 Scenario Auto Operating Cost ($/mi, 2000 Constant Dollars) $0.15 $0.14 AOC ($/mile) $0.13 $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 Year BAU Gas Tax ($0.50) Gas Tax ($2.00) VMT Tax ($0.50) VMT Tax ($2.00) CO2 Tax ($25/ton) CO2 Tax ($50/ton) CO2 Tax ($75/ton)

20 Yearly CO2e (MMT) /2020/Target (Statewide Implementation) Transportation GHG Emissions R² = Historic Baseline 2020 Proportional Target Gas Tax ($0.50) Gas Tax ($2.00) VMT Tax ($0.50) VMT Tax ($2.00) CO2 Tax ($25/ton) CO2 Tax ($50/ton) CO2 Tax ($75/ton) Power (Historic) Year

21 2006/2020/Target (Statewide Implementation) Transportation GHG Emissions Yearly CO2e (MMT) Historic Baseline 2020 Proportional Target Gas Tax ($0.50) Gas Tax ($2.00) VMT Tax ($0.50) VMT Tax ($2.00) CO2 Tax ($25/ton) CO2 Tax ($50/ton) CO2 Tax ($75/ton) Efficiency (65mpg) Hybrid Max Year

22 2006/2020/Target (Statewide Implementation) Transportation GHG Emissions Yearly CO2e (MMT) Historic Baseline 2020 Proportional Target Gas Tax ($0.50) Gas Tax ($2.00) VMT Tax ($0.50) VMT Tax ($2.00) CO2 Tax ($25/ton) CO2 Tax ($50/ton) CO2 Tax ($75/ton) Efficiency (65mpg) Required Target Hybrid Max Year

23 Conclusions/Recommendations Establishing fantastical and magical strategies and targets only distracts from important policy goals Provides a way out for policy makers By looking tough, but doing little Likely a set-up in many states for a cap and trade program to generate revenue Need to formulate a multitude of realistic strategies, test and incrementally ramp-up or replace Policy formulation through jurisdictional convergence As opposed to set it and forget it mentality

24 Conclusions/Recommendations Jurisdiction Planned Target Year Year CO2 Budget Exceeded (w/o CAP) Year CO2 Budget Exceeded (w/ CAP) Maryland United States World

25 Conclusions/Recommendations For Maryland to do its part in keeping 2 0 C within 20% probability Can only emit 1,113 Mt CO 2 from Compared to current trend: 2,754 Mt CO 2 And current CAP: 2,318 Mt CO 2 Need to aggressively change target From: 25% 2006 by 2020 To: 70% 2006 by 2020 Or: 68% 1990 from AND HOLD CONSTANT

26 Conclusions To keep 80% chance of 2 o C pre-industrial: Jurisdiction Target Year Reduction Year PercentBelow Avg. Annual Reduction (from 2012) Maryland % 8% (65%) United States % 3.73% (82%) World % 3.23% (87%) Not only do the likely policy results not match the hype The hype does not match the need