CO 2 Reduction and Neutrality

Transcription

1 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 1 CO 2 Reduction and Neutrality Presentation by Prof. Dr. H.C. Moll Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences I University of Groningen Wadden Sea Forum 22 nd meeting May , Eemshaven CO 2 Reduction and Neutrality Content of the presentation 1. The CO 2 emission problem en climate change 2. Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations A regional approach: EU and NW Europe 5. Climate Neutrality in Municipalities

2 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 2 The CO 2 emission problem en climate change Status carbon cycle With the use of: Accurate measurements in the atmosphere On many places on earth On long term Theoretical modeling Disturbance by humans: Total 30 bill. ton CO 2 /year 45% fossil fuels 75% remains in atmosphere deforestation, erosion 25% atmosphere 30% uptake in the ocean 25% uptake by plants and trees The CO 2 emission problem en climate change

3 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 3 The CO 2 emission problem en climate change The CO 2 emission problem en climate change

4 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 4 Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations

5 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 5 Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations

6 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 6 Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations

7 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 7 Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations Long term Energy use and CO 2 Emission Expectations

8 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 8 Fossil Climate change (coal most, natural gas least) Availability and geopolitical dependency (coal least, oil most) Efficiency and pollution (coal most, natural gas least) Transportation effects (coal substantial) Renewables Climate change (not direct, but consider the whole chain) Availability and geopolitical dependency (everywhere supply, but varying in time) Efficiency and pollution (low energy density, effects on nature and landscape) Transportation and storage effects

9 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 9 Energy conservation. Prevention and behavioral change Using natural cycles and chains in the economy: re-use products and materials, storage and use of waste heat and cold Efficiency in production systems, energy and electricity generation and use, appliances and behavior

10 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 10 The seven wedges of Socolow Efficiency and conservation transport Efficiency and conservation houses and buildings Efficiency in the electricity generation Substitution of coal by natural gas Capture and underground storage of CO 2

11 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 11 The seven wedges of Socolow Nuclear energy (fission) Wind energy substituting coal and producing hydrogen (transport) Solar cells (PV) substituting coal in the electricity generation sector Transport fuel from biomass

12 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 12

13 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 13 A regional approach: EU and NW Europe A regional approach: EU and NW Europe

14 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 14 Climate Neutrality in Municipalities Energy and CO 2 neutrality as a innovation process Principles Processes Practices Climate Neutrality in Municipalities

15 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 15 Climate Neutrality in Municipalities Principles and Motivation for climate policy may be related to local positive externalities, Or to global positive externalities When local positive externalities are the only motivating driver, the goal to become climate neutral will not be feasible. Only a limited amount of CO 2 reduction can be attained because the local benefits will not compensate the costs of ambitious reductions. Climate Neutrality in Municipalities

16 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 16 Climate Neutrality in Municipalities Ranking of Global benefits Percentage Percentage of global benefit options chosen in different ranks Rank Group A Group B Trendline no preference Trendline B Trendline A Climate Neutrality in Municipalities Optimal municipal transition model to become climate neutral

17 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 17 Climate Neutrality in Municipalities Climate Neutrality in Municipalities

18 WSF-22, Presentation CO2 page 18 Climate Neutrality in Municipalities