The Green Transition of the Danish energy system

Transcription

1 The Green Transition of the Danish energy system Brazilian Delegation - Smart Grid Tour Visit to Energinet.dk 24 November 2014 Peter Jørgensen, Vice President The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 1

2 Agenda Introduction to Energinet.dk The electricity system today passing 33% wind power in 2013 Development of the electricity markets System operation with large shares of variable RES Planning for 50% wind power in 2020 and a fossil-free energy system by The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 2

3 Location of Energinet.dk Energinet.dk Practitioner's guide to grid integration of variable RES-E 3

4 Facts about Energinet.dk TSO for electricity and gas in Denmark Independent public enterprise under the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building Owns and operates the electricity and gas transmission systems Co-owns electricity and gas spot exchanges Approx. 680 employees Annual revenue: approx. DKK 10 billion US$ 1.7 billion The consumers contribute to our activities through tariffs Our finances are based on a break-even principle non-profit! Investment decisions are based on socio-economic welfare criteria Practitioner's guide to grid integration of variable RES-E

5 Core tasks for Energinet.dk Ensure short- and long-term security of supply for electricity and gas Ensure well-functioning markets for electricity and gas Own, operate, develop and maintain the gas and electricity transmission grids Practitioner's guide to grid integration of variable RES-E 5

6 Agenda Introduction to Energinet.dk The electricity system today passing 33% wind power in 2013 Development of the electricity markets System operation with large shares of variable RES Planning for 50% wind power in 2020 and a fossil-free energy system by The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 6

7 Parallel developments - towards renewable energy and open markets From primary coal fired to local CHP and wind power 2000 From vertically integrated monopoly to competitive electricity market Generation Generation Trade Transmission Distribution Transmission System Operator Distribution The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 7

8 Development of Wind Power and PV in Denmark Drivers: Attractive feed in tariffs/ guaranteed prices Favorable grid connection conditions The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 8

9 MW The Danish electricity system Capacity Demand Primary power station Local CHP plant Wind turbines import/export [MW] 950/1000 MW 680/740 MW Energy /1700 MW Demand Wind power generation Import Exports ~ 33.5 TWh ~ 11.1 TWh ~ 11.3 TWh ~ 10.2 TWh 600 MW Wind power/demand ~ 33% Jan-June 2014: ~ 42% January 2014: ~ 62% 1500/1500 MW 600 MW The Danish Energy System 9

10 Wind Power Share in Denmark 2013 January % 62% January 2014 Sunday 19 Jan 105% Operating grids with levels of VRE: Can you do it? 10

11 One week in January dispatch with 57% wind power Operating grids with levels of VRE: Can you do it? 11

12 Flexibility in the electricity system - hourly dispatch January Operating grids with levels of VRE: Can you do it? 12

13 Spot price, wind power and market dynamics /Mwh Operating grids with levels of VRE: Can you do it? 13

14 Agenda Introduction to Energinet.dk The electricity system today passing 33% wind power in 2013 Development of the electricity markets System operation with large shares of variable RES Planning for 50% wind power in 2020 and a fossil-free energy system by The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 14

15 Nordic electricity system - economic gains through cooperation Diversified generation system High share of non-fossils Large storage capacity Strong interconnections AC and DC Integrated markets Day-ahead, intraday and regulating Coordinated operation Sharing of reserves Coordinated planning Nordic and regional grid planning The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 15

16 50 Years of common grid planning Nordic and European Nordel was founded in 1963 by Nordic transmission system operators: Create preconditions for an effective and harmonized Nordic electricity market ENTSO-E was established as a result of the EU 3 rd Energy Package 2011: Promote the completion and functioning of the internal market in electricity and cross-border trade The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 16

17 Nord Pool Spot common Nordic spot exchange Before market opening: Many years of bilateral trade on DC and AC interconnectors between the Nordic countries Market opening: 1993 Statnett Marked AS established in Norway 1996 Joint Norwegian-Swedish Nord Pool 1998 Finland joins 2000 Denmark joins Market share in Nordic Market: 84% The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 17

18 Phases of the power market Finansiel markets Spot market Intraday market Regulating market 12:00 Day ahead Operating day Scheduling Measuring Settlement Imbalances = Schedules Measurements Balance responsible parties pay costs for imbalances The Danish Energy System 18

19 Price setting technologies in the Nordic market Kr/MWh Oil Capacity a normal day Coal Wind Hydro Nuclear Extra wind Demand MWh The Danish Energy System 19

20 Nord Pool price formation - optimal merit order dispatch Price Buyers All sellers Price Sellers P All buyers Quantity MWh/h MWh/h The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 20

21 Spot trade of energy and implicit auctioning of grid capacity - lowest possible costs through optimal system utilisation Capacity allocation handled by spot exchange via implicit auctioning Grid congestions leads to price differences between bidding areas Implicit auctioning ensures optimal utilisation of grid and generation system The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 21

22 Market Coupling in Europe (2015?) Stepwise Nordic development Trade on interconnectors Wholesale market Detail market Stepwise development from regional to European market coupling The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 22

23 Conclusions from the Nordic countries Economic gains from market based efficient international merit order dispatch in diversified generation system Improved security of supply from international cooperation The path is a stepwise development of: Coherent grid planning Transmission grids and interconnectors Coordinated system operation Electricity markets Trade on interconnectors Whole sale markets & retail markets Regional market coupling ENTSO-E is now following the same route on a European level! The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 23

24 Agenda Introduction to Energinet.dk The electricity system today passing 33% wind power in 2013 Development of the electricity markets System operation with large shares of variable RES Planning for 50% wind power in 2020 and a fossil-free energy system by The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 24

25 Challenge of the transition Electricity generation and electricity consumption do not go together October Energinet.dk 13

26 Flexibility in the power system Flexibility on both side generation and consumption Flexibility by the second and by annual energy balance Flexibility governed by market prices Flexibility incorporated in all new consumption Storage of electricity is optional Power-to-gas for bulk storage Power-to-gas for renewable gas October Energinet.dk 26

27 This is how we deal with the challenges What do we do, when the wind is not blowing and the sun does not shine? October Energinet.dk 14

28 What is needed for efficient operational planning Prediction of RES with a resolution of 5 minutes continuously updated with meteorological forecasts and online generation measurements Prediction of Demand with a resolution of 5 minutes updated with online calculation of demand Schedules for Exchange with neighboring areas with a resolution of 5 minutes updated with new trades Schedules for all Generation with a resolution of 5 minutes updated with knowledge of schedules Information about all remaining available resources Including new knowledge about renewables Integration of renewable energy through flexibility measures 29

29 Challenges Having 4,5GW wind power installed in the system, a change of 1 m/s in wind speed can result in a change of > 600 MW generation The meteorological forecasts rarely agree on the same wind speed. Thus we constantly look for the best combination The Danish Energy System 30

30 Wind power forecasting Two forecasting tools are used one external and one internal: External forecast: Combined forecast based on 4 meteorological prognoses hour forecast Hourly update Internal forecast: Combined forecast based on 3 meteorological prognoses. Day ahead (12-36 hour) and short term (0-6 hour) forecast Several updates pr. hour We are constantly improving and looking for new competitive forecast providers! The Danish Energy System 31

31 Wind prediction October Energinet.dk 32

32 Operational system balancing and grid security Energinet.dk has developed two essential IT systems to manage the large amount of sustainable generation: Operational Planning System: providing information on imbalances in the coming hours on the basis of forecasts, up-dated generation plans, on-line measurements and DGM input Distributed Generation Management System (DGM): providing the basis for forecasting renewable generation and grid security calculations (load flow) The Danish Energy System 33

33 Operational Planning Tool - predicted imbalance October Energinet.dk 34

34 Distributed Generation Management System 6300 generators on 4600 plants 18 Balance Responsible Parties for Production (PBR) 75 plants with individual schedules and 4525 plants without! Area 1 Area 2 Data management for Generation forecast Load flow analysis Substation 1 Substation 2 Substation The Danish Energy System 35

35 Agenda Introduction to Energinet.dk The electricity system today passing 33% wind power in 2013 Development of the electricity markets System operation with large shares of variable RES Planning for 50% wind power in 2020 and a fossil-free energy system by The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 36

36 Green transition The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 7

37 The energy system is changing Denmark is in the middle of a historic transition of the energy system By 2020, wind power will constitute 50% of the electricity consumption (Energy Agreement) By 2035 fossil fuel independent electricity and heating (Government goal) By 2050, Denmark must be 100% fossil fuel independent (Broad political vision) The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 8

38 Energy consumption in Denmark towards 2050 The Green Energy Transition in Denmark is primarily based on: 1. Highly increased energy efficiency specially through electrification 2. Much more fluctuating power production from specially wind and sun/waves Based on figure from the Danish Government s plan: Our Future Energy The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 39

39 PJ per year Domestic renewable resources to reach 100 pct. renewable energy by 2050 Based on the Wind Scenario from The Energy Agreement Analysis, 2014 Danish Energy Agreement March Futher biomass potential by using energy crops Domestic potential for RE-production towards (production og gross energy consumption) 2012 (net import of biomass) 2012 (production og gross energy consumption) Gross Energy Consumption 2012 Gross Energy Consumption Wind Sun (PV) Wave Heat (sun and geothermal) Fluctuating power production Biomass and waste (incl. Biogas) The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 40

40 The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 41

41 Coherent and flexible energy systems 50% of electricity demand energy emission electricity The Danish Energy System 42

42 Integration of energy systems synergy between electricity, gas, heating and transportation Power to heat H e a t i n g The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 43

43 Bornholm a Unique Test Site for 50% RES and Smart Grid - not just another Smart Grid project Large scale demonstration in real grid with 2,000 consumers Testing new market design 5 min. market! Primary focus on distribution grid and distributed energy resources Focus on local balance with high penetration of RES Economical benefits Socio-economic welfare from optimal utilization of RES Reduced grid investments The Danish Energy System 44

44 45 45

45 Overall Impact of EcoGrid EU Small costumers get access to balancing market Open Standardisation process Targeted roll-out of Smart Grids solutions Contribute to the overall goal of large scale and efficient integration of DER in the European power market Reduce/ Postpone grid investments Minimise balancing costs Improve production forecasts 46

46 Central mechanisms for increased demand side participation Combo of three means: Market design Consumer empowerment ICT Intelligence 47

47 Conclusions Efficient integration of large-scale wind power through: A strong interconnected transmission system Efficient international electricity markets Coherent energy systems A revised control system architecture - SmartGrids An economic regulation to incentivise investments and operation supporting the overall socio-economic efficiency The Danish Energy System 48

48 Thank you for your attention! The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 49

49 Energinet.dk Energy Consultancy Part of the Energinet.dk group with access to core TSO competences International advising, training and knowledge sharing without costs for the Danish electricity and gas consumers The Green Transition of the Danish Energy System 50