Ricardo-AEA. Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change vulnerability and impact assessment. ClimaEast.

Transcription

1 Ricardo-AEA Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change vulnerability and impact assessment Richard Smithers Workshop - Baku ClimaEast

2 2 Workshop Agenda Day 1 Welcome speech and introductions Introduction to the workshops Expectations Definition of priority areas to be addressed Purpose of the modelling tool Strengths and weaknesses of classes of models used in climate change Review technical characteristics of potential models to facilitate selection Identification of selection criteria Potential issues Initial review of the short-listed models identified

3 3 Welcome and introductions

4 4 Introduction to the workshop

5 5 Richard Smithers, Knowledge Leader: Ecosystems and Principal Consultant More than 30-years experience in the environmental field Background in land management, including forestry Assessing impacts and vulnerabilities and considering adaptation measures since 1998, including involvement in developing and applying models and decision frameworks Lead adviser on ecosystem-based adaptation in supporting EC DG CLIMA with regard to development of EU Adaptation Strategy Providing expert input to: development of a Climate Adaptation Support Package for Turkey, defining a pilot approach on estimating the direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on economic activity for EC DG CLIMA, the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Currently: Preparing Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures Chapter of Palestine s Initial National Communication Report to the UNFCCC Supporting the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution process in Bangladesh Contributing to a meta-review of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) mainstreaming for EC DG CLIMA regarding effective performance of tools for climate action policy.

6 6 Expectations

7 7 Expectations Definition of priority areas

8 8 Definition of priority areas Water authorities Water resources Government Cities and communities Others??? Climate Change Adaptation Agriculture Others??? Farmers and foresters Waterrelated natural events Forestry Industry

9 9 Expectations Purposes of the modelling tool

10 10 Expectations Purposes of the modelling tool Audience Who will use the outputs? Researchers? Policy-makers? Practitioners? What are their aspirations for how they will use them? For example: To assess vulnerabilities, and/or To identify and develop adaptation options, and/or To enable stakeholder engagement. Discuss

11 11 Expectations Purposes of the modelling tool Inter-relations between definitions of terms used in IPCC s 4th Assessment Report (top) and 5th AR (bottom)

12 12 Strengths and weaknesses of modelling approaches

13 13 Conceptual model of the integrated system (Nay et al. 2015, DOI: / )

14 14 Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change Equation-based models Start with a set of equations that describe relationships among variables of a system (top down) Agent-based models Start with behaviours of constituent agents of a system (bottom up) Geographic-based models Geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial information from a variety of sources to be manipulated in a common projection format Participation-based models Involve stakeholders in role-playing games to understand climate vulnerabilities, explore plausible futures, and inform adaptation decisions

15 15 Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change Model type Advantages Disadvantages Equationbased Fewer parameters than ABM Can be viewed as black box less Amenable to making precise transparent models predictions and has less Numeric outputs can be taken as certain parameters to estimate May not account for macro-level impacts of social norms or individual decisions Uncertainty not always explicit in results Agent-based Explore what if scenarios Can be viewed as black box models Evaluate competing models of Data hungry to capture reality human behaviour vs observation Computationally complex Better understand causal links Simulate adaptation Geographicbased Represent detailed spatial patterns and facilitate visualization Not good at representing dynamic diverse processes models Can include location-specific assets (e.g. flood protection) May need to be informed by equation- and agent-based modelling Participationbased Can help stakeholders understand how decisions link to consequences May require simplified input from other models models Can adapt to different priorities Assumptions and process need to be Can inform cost:benefit analyses transparent and recorded

16 16 Managing for uncertainty As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld in a US Department of Defense news briefing in All models are wrong Uncertainties increase with down-scaling Uncertainties are compounded the more complex the model Strategic decisions need to address the full range of likely variation in projected changes and their impacts It is important not to select one preferred future in the hope that it will come true Adaptation measures are required that will be beneficial whatever the extent, rate or even direction of climate change.

17 17 What type of modelling approaches are required in Azerbaijan and Georgia Discuss

18 18 Review technical characteristics of potential models that may facilitate selection

19 19 Characteristics being assessed Coverage of priority areas Where the model has previously been applied Relevance to the region (Azerbaijan and/or Georgia) Whether climate change is implicit within the model Type of adaptation model (equation-based; agent-based; geographic-based; participation-based) Technical parameters and resultant data requirements (inputs) Technical ability, i.e. what does the model do? (outputs) Scale Ability to run on beneficiaries PCs Accessibility (i.e. any associated fees) Discuss

20 20 Identification of selection criteria

21 21 Identification of selection criteria With reference to: Priority areas Purposes Classes of models Technical characteristics Discuss

22 22 Potential issues for models

23 23 Choosing a model potential issues Data availability Data collection Training needs Discuss

24 24 Initial review of short-listed models

25 25 Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs

26 26 Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs

27 27 Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs

28 Ricardo-AEA Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change vulnerability and impact assessment Richard Smithers Workshop - Baku ClimaEast

29 29 Workshop Agenda Day 2 Initial review of the short-listed models identified (continued) Case studies Discussion on short-listed models Working in groups on identified issues, criteria for model selection, possible setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the short-listed models Presentation of the preliminary conclusions of the groups regarding preferences of the short-listed models Discussion on further steps and follow-up of the workshop Closure of workshop

30 30 Initial review of short-listed models

31 31 Summary of discussion from day 1 Richard Smithers to complete bullet point based on Day 1 discussion Replace slide with a photo and summary

32 32 Case Study 1 CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool

33 33 Case Study 1 CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool Objectives To obtain short- and long-term projections (for 2035 and 2060) of future climate change for the Las Vegas Valley To identify South Nevada Water Authority s (SNWA) assets most vulnerable to weather and climate-related threats, based on climate projections To use the risk reduction unit (RRU) metric provided by CREAT to develop costeffective adaptation strategies to minimize threats and demonstrate resilience (or lack of resilience) to future climate threats both with and without adaptation. To familiarize staff with the climate change risk assessment process and develop a database, including vulnerability of SNWA s assets, threats and potential adaptation measures for iterative use in future assessments.

34 34 Case Study 1 CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool Input data required Digitised boundaries of the utility operating area Historical temperature and precipitation data for developing projections Regional projected climate information (within model) Identity of threats (based on SNWA staff s consideration of CREAT outputs ) Catalogue of assets (provided by SNWA)

35 35 Case Study 1 CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool Types of outputs Future climate projections Priority threats and assets Preliminary risk assessment Increased understanding and consensus built around key risk assessment parameters (e.g. climate data, likelihood, consequences).

36 36 Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia Although standard data is US-specific, there is an option to import historical climate data (and climate projections) from Azerbaijan. Modelling approach combines elements of quantitative assessment with stakeholder participation. CREAT provides a single platform to apply climate change data and take stakeholders through an assessment and decision-making process. However, the focus is on water utilities rather than wider cities and catchments.

37 37 Case Study 2 EU Climate Adapt

38 38 Case Study 2 EU Climate Adapt Objectives To assist users in developing climate change adaptation strategies and plans by providing guidance, links to relevant sources and dedicated tools. Applied at a city scale in Turkey by Ricardo-AEA A UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office-funded project following on from application of this approach to 21 cities in the EU. The city of Bursa has a population of over 2 million and climate change and economic growth require adaptation strategies, especially regarding flooding and drought. A capacity-building approach was taken to lead municipal government officers through a stepwise process and develop an adaptation strategy. This included three workshops in Turkey, one of which focused specifically on water management.

39 39 Case Study 2 EU Climate Adapt Input data Identifying current and future climate change impacts Information about ongoing adaptation activities Good practice examples. Types of outputs Identification of adaptation options Selection of adaptation options based on costbenefit analysis Adaptation strategy for implementation Monitoring and evaluation plans.

40 40 Case Study 2 EU Climate Adapt Applicability for Azerbaijan and Georgia The Climate Adapt model and adaptation support tool are participation based and more flexible than taking a quantitative approach and using a one-size fits all model. The approach can: Enable dialogue around the most important aspects of adaptation Support information on vulnerability from a range of sources Lead to cost-benefit analysis of options Provide a robust adaptation strategy at a city, regional or national scale.

41 41 Case Study 3 FAO: MOSAICC MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

42 42 Case Study 3 FAO- MOSAICC MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Objectives To use an integrated package of models to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture, including the variations in crop yields and their effect on national economies. Input data required The models are robust and can work with minimal data, but it is essential to have good quality time series of weather observations, over a at least years at least for a significant number of stations. Types of outputs (see figure)

43 Case Study 3 FAO- MOSAICC MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change The models: 43 STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PORTAL (SD PORTAL) Used for downscaling climate data. This tool is an adaptation of the portal developed within the EU ENSEMBLES project. AQUACROP Based on the FAO crop model for estimating crop productivity in relation to water supply and agronomic management. The overall framework is based on plant physiological and soil water budgeting concepts. WABAL A crop specific water balance model derived from AgroMetShell, the FAO crop yield forecasting software. STREAM A grid-based precipitation-runoff model which simulates the discharge rate in large catchment areas. DYNAMIC CGE MODEL Designed to model the future evolution of the national economies and how they are affected by variations of crop yields under different climate change projections. Policy response options can also be tested. OTHER UTILITIES These include: data interpolation tools (kriging, AURELHY), reference evapotranspiration, and planting date and growing season length calculation tools.

44 44 Case Study 3 FAO- MOSAICC MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change The green Moroccan Plan, a large scale agricultural development strategy in Morocco, is expected to boost the agricultural sector and promote rural development The strategy will be challenged by climate change, as crop yields and water resources are expected to decline A total of 11 institutions are participating in the use of MOSAICC in Morocco at national and regional levels.

45 45 Case Study 3 FAO- MOSAICC MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Deployment of MOSAICC for green Morroco was achieved in three steps: (1) installation of the server and the software, (2) training of the system administrators and (3) training of the national experts on the system, the models and the data.

46 Case Study 3 FAO: MOSAICC Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia 46 Designed to be distributed to national institutions Different models should be run by researchers with relevant expertise in climate and/or agriculture sciences as well as good computer skills Promotes synergy between stakeholders (climate, water, soil, agriculture, economy) FAO provides training and support Web portal-based, though investment and hosting of server system required Remote access through web interfaces opens opportunities for participatory approach. Users do not need to install any software on PC as the system is accessed through usual web browsers. Easy data exchange, low computing time and automatic data formatting and unit conversion Data can be tracked down the flow Replication and comparison is easy. Once installed, the system requires maintenance but no licensing cost.

47 47 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model

48 48 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model Objectives To investigate climate and land use change impacts at the regional scale. The model SWIM is an ecohydrological integrated river basin model Processes are interrelated at a daily time step using regionally available data and considering feedbacks The model set-up and post-processing are supported by a GIS interface.

49 49 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model Input data required Topography Land use Soil distribution and soil parameters Surface waters and river network Climatic and precipitation stations Water and land use management data Measured discharge data Measured values of nutrient concentrations (for calibration and validation). Types of output It simulates: Runoff generation Nutrient and carbon cycling Plant growth and crop yield River discharge and erosion.

50 50 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model

51 51 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia High level of data requirements and effort to set-up this modelling approach. Benefits over traditional hydrological models in terms of understanding the interactions with vegetation and water quality.

52 52 Case Study 5 WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System

53 53 Case Study 5 WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System Integrated Approach Stakeholder Process Water Balance Simulation Based Policy Scenarios User-friendly Interface Model Integration Unique approach for conducting integrated water resources planning assessments Transparent structure facilitates engagement of diverse stakeholders in an open process A database maintains water demand and supply information to drive mass balance model on a link-node architecture Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, infiltration, crop requirements, flows, and storage, and pollution generation, treatment, discharge and instream water quality under varying hydrologic and policy scenarios Evaluates a full range of water development and management options, and takes account of multiple and competing uses of water systems Graphical drag-and-drop GIS-based interface with flexible model output as maps, charts and tables Dynamic links to other models and software, such as QUAL2K, MODFLOW, MODPATH, PEST, Excel and GAMS

54 54 Case Study 5 WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System Input data required Water supply and demand Scenarios Types of outputs Current and future water availability Can link with: Energy modelling LEAP

55 55 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia Can help address issues around agricultural water allocation and future supply/demand issues

56 56 Case Study 6 FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment

57 57 Case Study 6 FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment Objectives To describe long-term forest behaviour under changing environmental conditions To analyse: Forest productivity (11 European tree species) The carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets of forests including soil To derive reduced models for application in information systems To analyse adaption of forestry to climate change by management To estimate the bioenergy potential from short rotation coppice.

58 58 Case Study 6 FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment The model Describes processes at tree and stand level based on eco-physiological experiments, long-term observations and physiological modelling at an intermediate level of complexity. Resolution: Time step: 1 day 1 year Simulation period: years Spatial: Cohorts of trees in a forest stand Operating system: Linux, Unix, Windows Programming language: Fortran90 Model run time: Dependent on the number of sites, scenarios and simulation time

59 59 Case Study 6 FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment Input data required Daily meteorology, soil description (physical and chemical), forest stand description Types of outputs Water, carbon and nitrogen dynamics (pools and fluxes) of forest stands including: Soil Growth behaviour of forest stands (diameter, height, volume)

60 60 Case Study 6 FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment

61 61 Case Study 4 SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia Can help address issues around forestry, energy and climate change mitigation as well as adaptation.

62 62 Working in groups on identified issues, criteria for model selection, possible setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the short-listed models

63 63 Breakout groups From day 1 choose one of the key issues you have identified Water resources Agriculture Forestry Water related disaster Choose a model from the short-list and/or case studies What are the data requirements What are the outputs that you d like to see and can the mode produce these What are the training and capacity requirements of that model Feedback to main group at the end This will help us understand if the short-listed models are suitable and help you identify some of the key inputs and data requirements

64 64 Presentation of the preliminary conclusions of the groups regarding preferences of the shortlisted models

65 65 Discussion on further steps and follow-up of the workshop

66 Richard Smithers Ricardo-AEA Ltd The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR T: E: W: