Revision of the NH Drought Management Plan

Transcription

1 Revision of the NH Drought Management Plan Matt Davis, UNH Earth Sciences Hannah Elkinton, UNH Earth Sciences Brandon Kernen, NH DES Tad Hatch and Rob Anderson, UNH Research Computing Mary Stampone, UNH Geography

2 NH Drought Management o Are the current triggers appropriate? NO Evaluation of historical meteorological and hydrological conditions o What additional metrics would be useful? PDHI, Standardized Precipitation, Snow Pack, Drought Monitor, Remote sensing of vegetation o Are the 5 management zones necessary? Are the current zones hydrologically distinct? YES o How do we monitor and designate conditions? Need real-time, low-cost, and low-maintenance

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4 US Drought Monitor: Indices Category Palmer Drought Index CPC Soil Moisture Model (Percentiles) USGS Weekly Streamflow (Percentiles) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Objective Short and Long-term Drought Indicator Blends (Percentiles) D0-1.0 to to D1-2.0 to to D2-3.0 to to D3-4.0 to to D4-5.0 or less or less 0-2

5 US Drought Monitor: Impacts Category Description Possible Impacts D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 Abnormally Dry Moderate Drought Severe Drought Extreme Drought Exceptional Drought Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered Some damage to crops, pastures; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent; voluntary water-use restrictions requested Crop or pasture losses likely; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed Major crop/pasture losses; widespread water shortages or restrictions Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies

6 US Drought Monitor: Process FINAL Draft released on Monday (9/10) Local input Tuesday-Wednesday Final release on Thursday (9/13) Need tool for monitoring conditions in real time over entire state and 5 drought management zones

7 US Drought Monitor: Local Input How well do default inputs perform in describing historical drought conditions in NH? If they are adequate, no local input would be necessary.

8 Historic Drought Conditions ( ) Objectives: Identify meteorological conditions for which NH is most susceptible. Evaluate differences between geographic regions (zones). Identify blended drought indices that are consistent with observed variations in climatic and drought conditions. Definitions: Drought Event: 28-day average streamflow less than 65% of normal Duration: Number of consecutive days of drought Significant Magnitude: 28-day average streamflow below 5 th percentile

9 Historic Conditions: Streamflow (28-day averages)

10 Min(Average) Drought Index Values Droughts of Different Duration ( ) River Basin Drought Index < 1 mo. 1-3 mo. 3-6 mo. 6-9 mo mo. Lamprey Original Blend (SE NH) Short-term Long-term Diamond Original Blend NA (North) Short-term NA Long-term NA Ashuelot Original Blend (SW NH) Short-term Long-term Original Blend 42% Palmer Drought Index 42% CPC Soil Moisture 16% 1-mo Precipitation Short-term 35% Palmer- Z 25% 3-mo Precipitation 20% 1-mo Precipitation 13% CPC Soil Moisture 7% Palmer Drought Index Long-term 25% Palmer Hydrologic 20% 24-month Precipitation 20% 12-month Precipitation 15% 6-month Precipitation 10% 60-month Precipitation 10% CPC Soil Moisture

11 Historic Drought Conditions ( ) 28-day average flow < 65% of Normal Durations: 1-3, 3-6, 6-9, 9-12 months 28-day average flow < 5 th percentile

12 SP01, SPI03, SPI06, SPI09, SPI12, SPI24, SPI60, WPI, PDSI, PHDI, Z-index, CPC-SM

13 Historic Drought Conditions ( ) 28-day average flow < 65% of Normal Durations: 1-3, 3-6, 6-9, 9-12 months 28-day average flow < 5 th percentile

14 SP01, SPI03, SPI06, SPI09, SPI12, SPI24, SPI60, WPI, PDSI, PHDI, Z-index, CPC-SM

15 Indices: SPI01, SPI03, SPI06, SPI09, SPI12, SPI24, SPI60, WPI, PDSI, PHDI, Z-index, CPC-SM Drought Score = w i Indexi Using Parameter Estimation, determine the optimal weights for the indices for each Drought Management Zone.

16 US Drought Monitor: Process FINAL Draft released on Monday (9/10) Local input Tuesday-Wednesday Final release on Thursday (9/13) Need tool for monitoring conditions in real time over entire state and 5 drought management zones

17 Real Time Monitoring Streamflow: 7-day and 28-day averages Groundwater Levels Precipitation: Cumulative relative to Normal Soil Moisture: Climate Prediction Center In situ measurements (Hubbard Brook & Mascoma) In situ measurements (other locations) Blended Drought Indices: Palmer indices Standardized Precipitation Indices Short term and Long-term Indices Data available online Derived from available online data

18 Enhanced Soil Moisture Monitoring Soil Moisture Monitoring Constraints: Volunteer network Easy to install Real time data Ethernet Satellite Cellular No Monthly Fees

19 Real Time Monitoring Objectives: Automate Data Collection and Analysis Provide Tool for Observers to Submit Reports Make available in real-time to Drought Management Team and Public Maintain Archive NH Drought Monitor Web site hosted (webfaction) using the Wordpress CMS and Python scripts for data mining and analysis. [Orphan, up for adoption. Low cost, relatively low maintenance]

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24 Climate Variability Drought Occurrence Meteorological Drought Agricultural Drought Hydrological Drought

25 NH Drought Triggers Goal: Develop set of metrics that: 1. Represents actual conditions 2. Provides ability to assess beginning and end of drought 3. Informative to public 4. Consistent with the US Drought Monitor

26 NH Drought Management o Previous Plan classified four drought levels o Triggered by both quantitative and qualitative conditions o State is splits into 5 Drought Management Zones.