Towards a sustainable Romanian energy sector: Roadmap to RES in 2030 Deloitte Romania, June 2018

Transcription

1 Towards a sustainable Romanian energy sector: Roadmap to RES in 2030 Deloitte Romania, June 2018

2 Content Background Development scenarios Impact & benefits 09 Key messages 12 2

3 Background Romania has the opportunity to step up and support the EU in achieving more ambitious RES targets, with tangible nation-wide benefits 1 Fast changing global and EU trends 2 Rise of new opportunities resulting from major technological, regulatory and economic changes: Rapid development of new technologies and the decrease of costs for such new technologies New regulatory trends driven by efforts to limit climate change Fast pace and sustained efforts to set more ambitious targets for RES at EU level High potential of RES in Romania, with significant benefits at national level High need to properly identify Romanian s real technical, geographical & meteorological RES potential Necessity to properly assess and calculate the economic, social and environmental impact of the development of such RES potential 3 Stakeholders engagement Provide all relevant stakeholders with a set of arguments to properly analyze and decide on the future path of RES in Romania Assess feasibility of setting a more ambitious RES target for Romania: Identify RES share growth opportunities by assessing the RES potential with 2030 perspective Calculate the impact of such opportunities Design associated key regulatory and market measures Support EU policies and targets Raise awareness on the benefits of renewable energy Assess if a more ambitious national RES target for 2030 is feasible and sustainable, while presenting its potential impact and benefits 3

4 1 Development scenarios 4

5 Natural potential The natural potential for capitalizing renewable energy sources in Romania exceeds 3 times the necessary capacity to achieve a 35% target Renewable energy natural potential in Romania, by source [GW] 19 Solar - PV large scale 35 Solar - PV rooftops 12 Wind - onshore 4 Wind - offshore 11 Hydro 82 TOTAL Approximately 32.5% of the natural potential would be sufficient to cover the maximum (of the scenarios under consideration) of the required renewable energy capacity (26.6 GW) The proposed scenarios are mainly based on the increased use of wind energy onshore and solar power rooftops The biomass potential is not included because there is no nation-wide acceptance of its size and sources Geothermal potential is not included because its amount is <1 GW Source: Deloitte 5

6 Main common assumptions of the analyzed scenarios Most assumptions are based on official primary databases and have been validated by various players in the Romanian energy sector Market forecast Cost of technology will gradually decrease, making RES (especially wind turbines and solar panels) cost competitive For the period, the average investment in wind capacities will be ~ EUR / kw The coal/ lignite plants have to be refurbished in order to be environmental compliant The evolution of the consumption up to 2030 will be influenced by: electrification of transport, reaching ~ 500,000 electric cars in 2030, and the increase in electricity consumption in the residential sector (increasing the number of households connected to the grid, increasing the number of households with electric heating and cooling) Infrastructure Transition to smart grids by introducing smart metering and grid digitalization Distribution and transmission systems modernization losses reduction Develop energy storage capacity in order to ensure a proper balancing of RES Interconnection of the national electricity transmission network - 15% (2030) Developing transport capacities for taking over natural gas from the Black Sea Expansion and modernization of natural gas storage capacities Macroeconomics In 2030 the electricity/ capita in Romania will reach 54% of the 2015 EU average In 2020 the electricity/ capita in Romania will reach 45% of the 2015 EU average Romania s population at the end of the analyzed period ~ 18 million people 6

7 Differentiated assumptions for each scenario Scenarios assumptions have been designed to reflect environmental compliance costs or the feasibility of developing other non-res projects Development potential scenario A (35% RES) Expanding the lifespan of existing nuclear facilities The two additional nuclear reactors (U3 and U4) will not be built The natural phase-out of all coal groups by ~ 2035 Net installed capacity (MW) 2030 Development potential scenario B (35.5% RES) Expanding the lifespan of existing nuclear facilities 2 additional nuclear reactors (U3 and U4) will be commissioned in 2030 and 2031 respectively Environmental costs will lead to the elimination of 3 coal groups Net installed capacity (MW) 2030 Source: Deloitte 1,305 3,500 6, , ,253 7,002 Σ 26,3 GW Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Solids Gas Oil 1,975 3,500 6, , ,691 7,002 Σ 26,6 GW 7

8 The price of electricity in the analyzed scenarios Technology advancement in RES and storage could trigger the decrease of wind energy LCOE below projected wholesale market price by 2030 Average electricity price (2030), [ '13 / MWh] Development potential scenario A - U3 AND U4 (nuclear) + RES Development potential scenario B +U3 AND U4 (nuclear) - 3 COAL GROUPS + RES Source: Deloitte Average price of electricity (pre-tax) Average cost of electricity generation Average wholesale price of electricity Wind energy LCOE 8

9 2 Impact & benefits 9

10 Spillover effects of RES potential developments Domestic investment in relevant economic sectors will generate an impact of 350 billion EUR in the Romanian Gross Domestic Product BILLION EUR 350 BILLION EUR DOMESTIC INVESTMENTS IMPACT OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENTS IN GDP TOTAL INVESTMENTS IN RELEVANT ECONOMIC SECTORS Automotive 41.9 BILLION Manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries and other components Development of recharging infrastructures New business models such as shared mobility Source: Deloitte Construction 19.2 BILLION Energy rehabilitation of residential and service sector buildings 10

11 Electrification of the transport sector vehicles stock The share of electric vehicles private cars will increase over 500 thousand fully electric cars by 2030 Private cars [ 000 vehicles] Conventional Gas Biofuels Hybrid Electric Fuel cell , ,157 EV chargers , , , thou. Source: Deloitte 11

12 Key messages 12

13 Key messages Technical and economical potential that allows a RES integration of 35.5% of final energy consumption RES and storage technological development to ensure faster RES deployment and grid integration Nation-wide benefits in the form of substantial GDP growth and improved quality of life Implement a proper market design; ensure a stable and predictable fiscal & legislative framework to sustain RES development Positioning in the forefront of EU climate change performers, enabling a faster transition towards a sustainable energy sector 13

14 Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not provide services to clients. Please see to learn more about our global network of member firms For information, contact Deloitte Romania