Zagreb, April 2015

Transcription

1 25 th CCE Workshop ICP Modelling and Mapping, 31 st Task Force Prepared by Rob Maas Presented by AC Le Gall Zagreb, April 2015

2 CLRTAP-Scientific Assessment Report 2016 Key questions 1. What has been achieved in terms of reduction in health and ecosystem effects? 2. What are remaining problems? 3. What is the scope for further improvements 4. What is the scope for further co-benefits with climate change mitigation?

3 Expectations Policy oriented results beyond EB-delegates Focus on remaining policy challenges Encourage progress in all CLRTAP countries Answers based on reviewed scientific papers and reports Short policy document (10p text) + factsheets + links + specific reports

4 Timeline Today: All contributions received (thanks) 30 June: preliminary version for WGE/EMEP-SB (Sept 2015) Possibility for comments up to WGE/EMEP meetings 31 Oct: First draft for EB/WGSR (Dec 2015) and ministries 28 Feb 2016: Final draft for translation and approval by EB/WGSR May 2016 June 2016, Batumi, Georgia: Presentation at the Eighth Environment for Europe Ministerial Conference (UN-ECE environment for Europe,

5 Kick off meeting January 2015 Oslo Elaboration on 16 key messages Input uploaded on EMEP-wiki

6 What measures contributed to avoid a polluted world? How would air quality, health and ecosystems have looked like without these measures? Rafaj et al, Climatic Change, 2013

7 1. Waldsterben avoided Teq S Teq N0-ox Teq N-red Tera = 10 12

8 2. Biodiversity still at risk

9 Change of pollution 5. Stagnating decline in HM & POP concentrations 20% 0% -20% HCB Pb Cd PCDD/Fs Hg BaP Relative reduction of HM and POP pollution levels over the period in the EMEP region -40% -60% -80% -100% Long-term time trends in concentrations of selected POPs in air from selected EMEP sites

10 7. Mercury and some POPs are global problems 100% 80% EMEP Central America North America South America 60% c Africa East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia 40% Other Natural / legacy 20% 0% Hg PCDD/Fs HCB PCB153 Source attribution of average mercury deposition to the EMEP countries EMEP anthropogenic EMEP secondary Global sources Relative contribution of different source types to contamination of the EMEP countries with Hg and some POPs.

11 4. Less ozone peaks, further reduction of ozone damage requires hemispheric action Methane reduction indispensable

12 3.Health risks reduced, but more to gain

13 14. Coherent health policy: more efficient and good for the environment Challenge: Include air pollution in healthy (urban) living policies Source: Global Burden of Disease Database contribution in %

14 Million tons PM2.5 Million tons NH3 Million tons VOC Million tons SO2 Million tons NOx 9. Climate policy and healthy diets would have large cobenefits for air quality SO 2 Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE NO x Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE MCE Further ~ 50% emission reductions from: Decarbonisation (only SO 2 and NO x ) Healthy diets (NH 3 ) Further air pollution controls Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE PM NH VOC Blue: BAU baseline, Red: climate policy + healthy diet scenario

15 10. Air pollution measures could reduce the rate of temperature increase

16 8. There are many remaining technological options to improve environmental quality) Low emission set Transboundary and local measures Co-benefits from climate policy Technology (and financial?) transfers HM/POP co-benefits from primary PM-reduction 5 0 Ambient PM2.5 (μg, pop-w.) Loss in life expectancy PM2.5 (months) Premature deaths O3 (1000)

17 16. Keeping the infrastructure is vital

18 13. Cost-effective options are available and will not harm the economy Benefits for crops, materials and ecosystem services not included How to create win-win solutions to stimulate ratification?

19 μg/m 3 PM Transboundary co-operation remains important Further European actions remain necessary to reduce background levels Ammonia emission reduction will contribute to reduced urban PM-exposure Combined with cost-effective local actions on traffic & wood burning WHO guideline values for PM would become feasible in most parts in Europe Households Primary PM: Traffic Sec. PM: Traffic + agri. Sec. PM: Industry + agri Primary PM: Industry Natural

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21 Eighth Environment for Europe Ministerial Conference at Batumi