An integrated Assessment Model and a Land Use Model

Transcription

1 The Development of BET GLUE model An integrated Assessment Model and a Land Use Model Hiromi Yamamoto and Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo December 14, 2016, Tokyo 1

2 Outline of the BET model The BET model: MERGE RICE type global model hardlinked with enduse technologies like MARKAL. The production function is one sector and nested 1 CES. YN t,r a t,r KN LN 1 b i,t,r DN i,t,r b DN i KN: capital, LN: population, DN: 20 kinds of energy services. Advanced end use technologies such as heat pump water heater. 13 regions in the world. Calculation period is to Yamamoto, Sugiyama, and Tsutsui. Climatic Change (2014). 2

3 Outline of the model Ener gy Supply Resource Data Mining Resource Trade Non-Fossils Power Generation Fossils Refined Fuel Energy- Origin GHGs Other GHGs Other GHGs Climate Electricity Non-Electricity GHGs End-use Ele.End-use End Tech. Economy Capital and Investment 外生 Labor, L Capital, K Service Demand. 2 SD 2 Nested CES Production Function Production, Y Non-Ele.End-use End Tech.... SD m Radiative Forcing Temperature Damage Damage Adjusted Production Investment, I Consumption, C Utility, U Sum of U Maximization Energy Cost, EC Utility Following the structure of MERGE RICE type model; adding an end use part incl. techs and service demands. 3

4 Energy services and end use technologies : Advanced end use technologies Sector Sub-sector Electricity Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gaseous fuel High-temp. heating Electric heating / Inductive heating Solid boiler Liquid boiler Gas boiler Industry Commercial Household Transportation Low-temp. heating Electric heating Solid boiler Liquid boiler Gas boiler / Heat pump Other electricity Electricity N/A N/A N/A Other solid fuel N/A Solid fuel N/A N/A Other liquid fuel N/A N/A Liquid fuel N/A Other gaseous fuel N/A N/A N/A Gaseous fuel Lighting Electricity N/A Oil lamp N/A Space cooling Ele. air con. N/A N/A N/A Cooking Ele. cooker Solid cooker Liquid cooker Gas cooker Hot water Electric heating N/A / Heat pump Liquid Gas Space heating Ele. Heat pump Solid stove Liquid stove Gas stove Other Electricity N/A N/A N/A Lighting Electricity N/A Oil lamp N/A Space cooling Ele. air con. N/A N/A N/A Hot water Electric heating Solid Liquid Gas / Heat pump Cooking Ele. cooker Solid cooker Liquid cooker Gas cooker Space heating Ele. Heat pump Solid stove Liquid stove Gas stove Other Electricity N/A N/A N/A Road freight N/A N/A Conv. vehicle / Hybrid N/A vehicle Road passenger Electric vehicle Conv. vehicle N/A N/A Railroad Electricity N/A Liquid N/A Aviation and shipping N/A N/A Liquid N/A 4

5 Scenarios Greenhouse gas constraints: Base(without GHG constraints), 650 ppm eq, 550 ppm eq, and 450 ppm eq (CO2 equivalent). Advanced end use technologies such electric heat pump water heater, industrial inductive heater, electric passenger vehicles, and hybrid freight vehicles: Turning on or off. To analyze the role of the advance end use technologies under the greenhouse gas constraints. 5

6 CO2 emissi mission ions (Gt CO2) CO2 em 120 nbase Year 650ppm Base Base off off off ppm 450 off Results of the BET model dl Upper Fig.:GHG constraints and CO2 emission pathways El lectrific cation ra atio 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 450ppm Base G9 450 G G Off G 650 G 650 Off G1 Base G1 Base Off Lower Fig.: GHG constraints and electrification ratios > Importance of advance electric appliance technology 6

7 Energy services in the world in 2050 b Electricity Adv. Electricity Solid Liquid Adv. Liquid Gaseous Energy services (EJ/year) Base Base off off off off The energy service using electricity is stable or increases under stringent GHG constraints. Electrification increases, too. Advanced electric end use technologies such as heat pump water heaters play increasingly important roles. 7

8 Flexibility of Emission pathways (Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal technology, BECCS) Examples of CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) options : BECCS (BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) Large scale reforestation DAC (Direct Air Capture). We evaluate BECCS and emission pathways using the BET model. (Sugiyama, gy M. et al., CRIEPI report Y13015 (2014)). 8

9 CO2) CO2 emissio ons (Gt Biomass resources and emission pathways Under 450ppm 1990 level constraints, the shape of the pathways depends on Half of 1990 level the quantity of bioenergy resource. If the biomass resource is limited, it the CO2 emission i in 2050 is smaller and that in 2100 is larger. Assumed biomass resources, g, FullTech: 500EJ/year, 50%: 250EJ/year, LimBio: 100EJ/year. If the biomass resource is large, the CO2 emission in 2050 is larger and that in 2100 is smaller. However, the steep reduction pathway is dd 9

10 Carbon price (450ppm eq) Technology options EleOff: without advance enduse technolgies Bioenergy resources: 500EJ (default),75%, 50%, and 100EJ. The lowest carbon price in the cases in 2100 is USD 4000 per t CO2 (in the case with 100 EJ of bioenergy resources. The highest carbon price in the cases in 2100 is USD 1000 per t CO2 (in the case with maximum bioenergy resources, nuclear and advanced end use technologies. 10

11 Outline of the GLUE model A Biomass flow model (Yamamoto et al. 2001, Biomass & Bioenergy.) Feature of the GLUE: calculating bioenergy supply potentials of biomass residues in the biomass flows in detail. After determining biomass flows in detail, it calculates bioenergy potentials. The biomass supply potentials are used in the BET model. Biomass demands are set by the relation between BD per cap and GDP/cap calculated by the BET model 11

12 Wood biomass flow in the GLUE

13 Food biomass flow in the GLUE

14 Figure Regional ultimate supply potential of Regional supply potential of biomass residues [PJ/year] biomass residues (unit: PJ/yr) South Asia 350,000 Southeast Asia 300,000 Russia and Eastern Europe 250,000 Latin America Sub-Sahara Africa 200,000 Middle East and North Africa 150,000 China etc. 100,000 ANZ 50, Japan Western Europe North America The ultimate means all discharged biomass residues minus material-recycled recycled biomass residues. The ultimate supply potential of biomass residues will increase from 110 EJ/yr in 2000 to 208 EJ/yr in 2050 and 305 EJ/yr in

15 BET (IAM) Linkage of the BET GLUE model (Soft link of the two models) dl) GLUE (Land use model) Energy supply Bioenergy supply curve potential Bioenergy supply Energy supply potential and demand CO2 emissions from land use Land use changes CO2 emissions Economic module (GDP per capita) Fuelwood consumption Biomass demandd CO2 emissions from energy sector Biomass flows Biomass supply and demand Crop productivity

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