The Role of Coal in the West

Transcription

1 The Role of Coal in the West Western Interstate Energy Board Benjamin Lim and Max Vilgalys 1

2 EIA Baseload Definitions Base load: The minimum amount of electric power delivered or required over a given period of time at a steady rate. Base load capacity: The generating equipment normally operated to serve loads on an around-the-clock basis. Base load plant: A plant [ ] which is normally operated to take all or part of the minimum load of a system, and which consequently produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously. 2

3 For the Purposes of the Presentation Base load plant: A plant [ ] which is normally operated to take all or part of the minimum load of a system, and which consequently produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously. 3

4 Baseload Generation is not a requirement A portion of a resource fleet that provides reliability services is necessary Having more baseload generation makes system planning easier, but does not Coal and nuclear resources are designed for low cost O&M and continuous operation Baseload resources have low forced and maintenance outage hours Low exposure to fuel supply chain issues necessarily result in a more reliable or lowercost portfolio 4

5 What is the CEM Database? Continuous Emissions Monitoring Data EPA collects data from generators Includes hourly data for Heat Input, Generated Load, Emissions, etc. 96 Coal Units, 544 NG Units 13,315,2 rows of data for Coal 96 units x 365 days x 24 hours a day x 16 years Compiled using Python and parsed with SQL 5

6 Emissions in CO2 equivalents 6.E+7 GHG Emission (CO2e) by Fuel Type in States of West E+7 4.E+7 Tons of CO2e 3.E+7 2.E+7 1.E+7.E+ Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG AZ AZ CA CA CO CO ID ID MT MT NM NM NV NV OR OR TX TX UT UT WA WA WY WY Fuel Type for Each State in Western Interconnection 6

7 How It Breaks Up in the West COAL HEAT INPUT DISTRIBUTION IN THE WEST NATURAL GAS HEAT INPUT DISTRIBUTION IN THE WEST WY 24% AZ 19% % % TX OR 2% 8% AZ 19% % NV 14% WA 3% CO 18% NM 6% OR 1% NV 1% UT 14% NM 11% MT 9% MT % ID 2% CO 7% CA 42% 7

8 Heat Input and Generation at Bridger Coal Plant in 216 Total Heat Input (mmbtu) at Bridger Coal Plant Total Generation (MWh) at Bridger Coal Plant Heat Input (mmbtu) 15 1 Generation (MWh) Month Month Heat Input BW71 (mmbtu) Heat Input BW72 (mmbtu) Generated Load BW71 (MWh) Generated Load BW72 (MWh) Heat Input BW73 (mmbtu) Heat Input BW74 (mmbtu) Generated Load BW73 (MWh) Generated Load BW74 (MWh) 8

9 Estimated Capacity Factors for EGU s at Bridger in 216 Based on Generation Capacity Factor of Unit BW71 Capacity Factor of Unit BW Capacity Factor Capacity Factor Month Month Capacity Factor of Unit BW73 Capacity Factor of Unit BW Capacity Factor Capacity Factor Month Month 9

10 Estimation of Data Driven Capacity Factor Underlying Assumptions: Plant Name ORISPL CODE Unit # Max Generation (MW) Max Heat Input (mmbtu) Fuel Type Nameplate Capacity (MW)!" $%&'() $*+, -./&, +123&3 $*+, -./&, 4'% Jim Bridger 866 BW Coal 535 Jim Bridger 866 BW Coal 527 Jim Bridger 866 BW Coal 527 Likewise for generated load Maximum heat input or generated load over the 16 year period can exceed the nameplate capacity Capacity factor values and trends derived from heat input or generated load are relatable Capacity Factor Jim Bridger 866 BW Coal 53 Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Heat Input Capacity Factor Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Generation Month Month 1

11 All coal fired power is solely used for baseload power and is consistently running at max capacity. 11

12 All coal fired power is solely sometimes used for baseload power and is consistently running at max a variable capacity factor. 12

13 The Changing Grid 21 vs 216 Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - November 21 Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - November Generation (MWh) Generation (MWh) Operating Hour Operating Hour Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 1 Unit 2 13

14 Duck Curve Development 16 Centralia, WA Coal Plant, Novembers Generation Generation Generation (MWh) Generation 214 Generation 215 Generation Generation Operating Hour 14

15 Other Major Coal Plants Generation (MWh) Average Hourly Generation at Colstrip Coal Plant - March 216 Generation (MWh) Average Hourly Generation at Intermountain Coal Plant - December Operating Hour Operating Hour Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 1 Unit 2 15

16 Systematic Analysis Clustering Unsupervised Learning Algorithm Over 5, unit-days in the database 95 units x 365 days x 16 years Logic/algorithm is a filter for bias and is the basis of fairness 16

17 Sorting Unit-Days Into Generation Profiles Actual Generation Profile of Generation How many flexible generation days? How many baseload days? 17

18 How It Works: Clustering 18

19 2 Distinct Generation Profiles 19

20 Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants % of the Unit-Days were baseload generation 21 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 4% 9% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 52% 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% % % 2

21 Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 26 Over 5 years, coal continued to operated largely as baseload 26 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 4% 11% 3% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 52% 7% 3% 2% 1% % % 1% 21

22 Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants In the next 5 years, baseload generation nearly halved for coal 211 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 5% 14% 8% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 27% 11% 7% 4% 2% 1% % % 22

23 Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants In the last 15 years, coal unit operation has shifted dramatically 216 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 22% 21% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 23

24 Recap of Aggregate Results Baseload operation days for coal decreased from 52% in 21 to 22% in 216 Offline days for units increased from 9% in 21 to 21% in

25 How Have Individual Units Changed? We have a measure of aggregate changes in the fleet We want to examine information about individual units Are all units changing, or just a few? When did most units shift from baseload operation? What factors could have influenced this shift? 25

26 How many units spend less than 1% of their days in baseload operation? 1 Number of Units Spending %-1% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units % - 1% Year 26

27 How many units spend less than 2% of their days in baseload operation? 1 Number of Units Spending %-2% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units %-2% % - 1% Year 27

28 Since 211, the majority of coal units spent less than 3% of their days in baseload operation. 1 Number of Units Spending %-3% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units %-3% 1%-2% % - 1% Year 28

29 In 216, 73 out of 84 coal units spent less than 5% of days in baseload operation 1 Number of Units Spending %-5% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units %-5% 3%-4% 2%-3% 1%-2% % - 1% Years 29

30 In 21, 53 units spent more than 5% of the time in baseload operation. In 216, 11 units did. 1 Number of Units Spending %-1% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units %-1% 8%-9% 7%-8% 6%-7% 5%-6% 4%-5% 3%-4% 2%-3% 1%-2% % - 1% Year 3

31 Jumping to the whole picture: 1 Number of Units Spending %-1% of their days in Baseload Operation, Number of Units %-1% 8%-9% 7%-8% 6%-7% 5%-6% 4%-5% 3%-4% 2%-3% 1%-2% % - 1% Year 31

32 Generation and Percent Baseload Days = 3 million MWh = 1% of the time like this: = 1% of the time like this: Size is Total Generation (MWh) Saturation is Percent Baseload Days 32

33 A possible explanation: Natural Gas Prices Source: eia.gov Comparing Natural Gas Price and Baseload Operation Trends Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet # of Units Year U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price Units spending < 3% of days in baseload generation 33

34 Changing Resources: NG Over Coal Consumption of Coal decreased by 72% and NG increased by 145% Fuel Burn Trends for Baseload Operation of Coal and Natural Gas Total Fuel Burnt in Baseload Operation from Coal and Natural Gas Fuel Burnt (quads) Fuel Burnt (quads) Coal Natural Gas Coal Combustion turbin e Dry bottom Tangentially-fired Combined cycle 34

35 Other Drivers for Operational Shift Increase in variable generation (wind and solar) Aging, less efficient power plants Flat electrical demand Regional economic dispatch Wear and tear cycling costs 35

36 In Summary Baseload operation has decreased from 52% of coal unit operating days in 21 to 22% in 216 in the Western U.S. Individual coal units in the Western U.S. with baseload operation greater than or equal to 5% of days in the year decreased from 53 units in 21 to 11 in 216. Since 211, the majority of coal units have spent less than 3% of their days in baseload operation. Offline operation increased from 9% of coal unit operating days in 21 to 21% in 216 Baseload operation resource consumption of Coal decreased by 72% and NG increased by 145% from 21 to

37 All coal fired power is solely sometimes used for baseload power and is consistently running at max a variable capacity factor. 37

38 Next Steps Highlight trends in coal alongside hourly wind and solar generation Compare spot prices for electricity to coal unit output Focus on plants slated for retirement Look at trends leading up to retirement for decommissioned plants/units 38