THE STATE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN JAPAN

Transcription

1 2010 4th International Solar Cities Initiative World Congress Japan-India Climate Policy Research Workshop 2018 Date: 26th 27th July, 2018 Venue: TERI Seminar Hall, New Delhi, , India THE STATE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN JAPAN Hironao MATSUBARA Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Tokyo, Japan

2 Introduction of Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies An independent nonprofit policy think-tank (Environmental NGO) aiming at the realization of sustainable energy policy mainly engaged in the rationalization of natural energy, energy saving, and energy market. Founded in

3 Trends of Power Generation in Japan Ratio of renewable energy is 10% which remained unchanged for the past two decades Ratio of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY2016. Fukushima.3.11 Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Source data: METI, etc. Graph: ISEP 2

4 Trends of Renewable Power Generation in Japan Share of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY % 10.5%10.1% 11.0% 12.5% 14.5% 14.8% 5.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.6% 4.8% 1.7% Source: METI, ISEP(Renewables Japan Status Report) 3

5 Share of Power Generation in Japan (2017) Share of Renewable Energy reaches almost 15.6% of power generation in Japan VRE share is 6.2%(Solar PV 5.7%) of annual power generation in 2017 Source: Estimated by ISEP using METI data 4

6 Trends of Renewable Energy Capacity in Japan Trends of Renewable Energy Capacity in Japan(excluding large hydro): 50GW(FY2016) *Small Hydro: under 10MW *Biomass: excluding black liquor and co-firing with coal Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Source: Renewables Japan Status Report (ISEP) 5

7 Trends of Solar PV capacity in TOP7 countries In China, Total capacity of PV reached 130GW by end of Japan exceeded Germany in total capacity of PV by end of Annual installation of PV was 53GW in China, more than 9GW in India GW 48.6GW 42.4GW 41.1GW 19.7GW 19.0GW 12.8GW Source: IRENA data 6

8 Movie Renewable Japan The Search for New Energy Paradigm February 2017 Movie Director: Hiroyuki KAWAI Superviser: Tetsunari IIDA Music: Takashi NIIGAKI Ending Music: Ryuichi SAKAMOTO 中国 中国 Source: 7

9 Trends of Solar PV in Japan and Germany Expanded introduction of Solar PV in Japan and Germany Since 2013, trend of additional capacity is dramatically changed in Japan and Germany. Certified PV Over 75GW (March 2017) GW GW GW GW JPEA PV OUTLOOK 2050 Source data: IRENA data Graph: ISEP Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies 8

10 Topics: Solar Sharing Solar PV for Agriculture in Japan In 2013, MAFF approved the installation of solar PV system on agricultural land About thousand installation site of solar sharing in Japan Promoting agriculture balancing solar power generation business Fukushima Aizu Kitakata(Aizu Power) Rice farm with 50kW PV Chiba (Sousa Mega Solar Sharing) Soya farm with 1MW PV Reference URL: 9

11 Economical effects of FIT scheme in Japan Renewable Share:9%(excluding large hydro) Renewables Tariffs for electricity (PV,Wind,Geothermal, Hydro,Biomass) 発電事業者 employment:310,000 発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者 (IRENA) 発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者 Power Producers Investment, Loan Capacity Investment 2300B JPY Financial Power Facility Institution Investment(2016):16Billion USD (Total investment for clean energy in Japan) estimated by UNEP Priority Access Electricity 57TWh Electric Utilities Avoidable Cost: 500B JPY 2.25 JPY/kWh Electricity Price (Surcharge) 1800B JPY Electricity 800TWh April,2016 March,2017 Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Estimation for FY2016 Home (Regulated) Company (Office, Industries, Etc.) Electric Consumer Source Data: METI, Estimation by ISEP 10

12 Trend of wind capacity in the world Source: GWEC(Global Wind Energy Council) 11

13 Trends of Wind power capacity in Japan After FY2011, annual installed capacity keeps very low level because of several regulation. Pipeline of environmental assessment is over 15GW including certified wind capacity is over 6GW 2050 Onshore:38GW Offshore:37GW 2030 Onshore:27GW Offshore:10GW 2020 Onshore:10GW Offshore:0.7GW JWPA Wind Roadmap Source: JWPA(Japan Wind Power Association) and ISEP 12

14 Energy Transition after Fukushima Nuclear Accident in Japan Decoupling started? FY Source: ISEP Renewables 2016 Japan Status Report 13

15 Comparative Studies on Socially Equitable Energy Transition in Asia* Status of Renewable Energy in Asian Countries Country RE Target (Electricity) Japan 22-24%(2030) RE Share (Electricity) PV [GW] Wind [GW] Biomass [GW] Geo [GW] Hydro[GW] (Pumped) Total [GW] 15%(2016) (27) 146 China 27%(2020) 26%(2016) (27) 1372 Korea 6%(2020) 10%(2024) 20%(2030) 5%(2016) (5) 16 Phillippines 40%(2020) 29% (1) 7 Thailand 20%(2036) 13% (1) 9 Indonesia 26%(2025) Vietnam 5%(2020) India 40%(2030) 16%(2016) (5) 210 Total(Asia) (66) World 25%(2015) (160) 2008 * This study is supported by Friedrich Ebert Foundation(2017) Source:Miranda Schreurs and IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics

16 Share trends and Policy target of renewable energy EU directive causes renewable energy target of 2020 based on NREAP for each country in EU 2030 energy mix of renewable energy in Japan is 22 24%, which corresponds to recent RE share of EU countries. Source:NREAP, EurObserv ER, ISEP 15

17 Share comparison of renewable energy power generation Share of renewable energy power generation in European countries are greater than Japan. * VRE(Variable Renewable Energy) Source: EurObserv ER, etc. 16

18 Electrical System Reform in Japan: Inter-regional grid connection between region of large utilities in Japan Electrical System Reform: -OCCTO and EGC start in FY2015 -Full Electricity Liberalization since FY2016 -Unbundling until 2020 Source data: ESCJ Okinawa (Isolated) 1.5GW 5.6GW Kyusyu 16.5GW Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Chugoku 11.3GW 2.4GW Shikoku 5.5GW Region (Utility) Peak Demand(GW) GW 16.7GW 1.4GW Inter-regional grid Capacity (Physical) Hokuriku 5.3GW Kansai 29.2GW 5.6GW 5.6GW As of FY GW Chubu 26.7GW 60Hz (West) 1.2GW 50 Hz (East) Hokkaido 4.5GW Tohoku 13.3GW 0.6GW Tokyo(Kanto) 54.4GW 12.6GW 17

19 Results of FIT scheme (As of March 2017) Operating Renewable power capacity in each utility In kyusyu, operating renewable power capacity reaches 47 % of peak demand. Source data: METI Graph: ISEP As of March 2017 Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies 18

20 Energy transition by Variable Renewable Energy Denmark 45% Share of VRE(Variable RE) 2016 India 3% Japan 5% Kyushu 9% Source:REN21,IRENA,IEA Renewable Energy Policies in a Time of Transition 19

21 Large Share of variable renewable energy in Japan Single-day Supply and Demand in Kyushu area (May 14 th, 2017) Kyushu Area May 14 th, 2017 RE peak: 86.9% VRE peak: 71.9% Solar peak: 71.5% Total 10 utilities: April 30 th, 2017 RE52%(Solar 38%,Hydro 12%, Geo 0.3%, Wind1%, Biomass 0.4%) Sunday, May 14 th, 2017 Daily Share of RE:39% Holiday, April 30 th, 2017 Daily Share of RE:28% Source: ISEP using Kyushu Electric Company 20

22 Sustainable Zone: Indicator for Sustainability of region in Japan Energy Sustainable Zone (ESZ) is an indicator to identify areas where local production of renewable energy exceeds local consumption of energy by residential and service sector. Ranking of Electricity RE Share(FY2016) RE Share = Estimated by ISEP and Kurasaka Lab. Chiba Univ. Renewable Power Supply(excluding Large Hydro) Electricity Demand(excluding industries) 135 towns and villages over 100% Renewable Energy in Electricity 83 towns and villages over 100% Sustainable Zone (100% renewables region) Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Prefectures Source: Sustainable Zone Study Group 21

23 Renewable Energy 100% Vision of Fukushima Pref. Comarison of Regional economy effects Cumulative regional economy until FY2040 after FIT started 3.3 trillion JPY 1.6 trillion JPY Source:Matsubara, et.al., SEEPS

24 Network of Community Power in Japan Activities of Community Power in Japan Three Principles of Community Power Ownership Governance Benefit sharing Japan Community Power Association (JCPA) Established in 2014 The 1 st World Community Power Conference, 2016 Fukushima Community Power Declaration As of Oct Source:data of ISEP, People s Power Network, Kiko Network The 2nd World Community Power Conference will be held in Mali, Africa,

25 Japan Communitypower Association(JCPA) Activities: Information sharing: shared knowledge base Networking: symposiums, lectures in each region Collaborative business development, business support Policy research and recommendations Network of organizations and key persons working on community-led renewable energy projects. Established in May 2014, in an effort to reorganize the "Community Power Initiative" (established in June 2013). Under the mission of promoting community-led renewable energy development in collaboration to realize a sustainable local community, the organization is sharing information and experience, policy research and recommendations, capacity building, business support, and so on. JCPA Home Page: Symposium in Aizu, Fukushima(Aug. 2014) 24

26 Community power: Aizu Electric Power Company Source: 25 CEO: Yauemon Sato Solar PV: 5MW(70 sites)

27 Conclusions towards 100% renewable energy in Japan Community-power based (Locally-owned) development of sustainable renewable energy Policy to develop power system infrastructure and renewable energy heating and transport Learning advanced region and case of renewable energy 100% regions and companies Making Vision and Target towards 100% renewable energy Global 100% Renewable Energy Platform Renewable Energy 100% Region Source:deENet(IdE, Germany) Sustainable Zone Domestic Campaign in Japan 26