Solar market and compliance update

Transcription

1 Solar market and compliance update Ric Brazzale, February 2016 SEIA Victorian meeting - Albury

2 Contents Solars role in the electricity market Solar PV market assessment STC target, market and pricing Solar power stations LGCs GET services update Compliance two fraud cases 2

3 Who is Green Energy Trading? Independent REC Agent and accredited for commercial lighting and other activities in NSW & VIC Provide competitive pricing and payment terms Our difference have best and fastest online system finance broking for business systems Renewables activism Research, consultancy and advisory associate (Green Energy Markets) Check out website for prices, research notes and other market information

4 Solar s role in the electricity market 4

5 NEM consumption increased 1.1% in 2015 (emissions increased by 2%) 5

6 Solar and energy efficiency making material contribution Average of 660 MW of solar PV installed in NEM each year over 2014 and 2015 Solar and energy efficiency accounted for 1% reduction in power demand 6

7 Coal and renewables increasing market share 7

8 Solar PV Market Assessment

9 Certificates (STC s) have a material impact on PV system affordability Based on estimate of average 3.75 kw system cost across Australia STC s provide one-third of up-front cost 9

10 No. of solar installations falling (2015 PV installs half of 2011 level) PV installs less than half the level of 2011 SWH installs one-third the level of

11 Capacity installed in 2015 is down 10% Commercial sized systems 23% of market and growing Change (2015 cf: 2014) Residential -17.2% Commercial (>10kW) 24.9% Total -10.3% 11

12 Residential systems saturation high levels of saturation in Qld/SA Greater than 35% saturation VIC at 16% Proportion of owner occupied, detached and semi-detached homes Source: Green Energy Markets: STC Modelling Report, Dec 2014 Number of residential installations expected to decline 12

13 Commercial sized systems increasing (23% of capacity in 2015 cf: <17% in 2014) Commercial size systems are those greater than >10kW 13

14 STC Target, market and prices 14

15 STC Creation 10 % behind target Clearing House used extensively Spot price just under $40 Deficit of 1.5 million STCs at end

16 Clearing House in deficit all Q4 16

17 Large-scale solar market PV system >100kW register as a power station Create certificates (LGCs) as the power is generated AGLs Nyngan Solar Farm (WA) 102 MW 17

18 Combined PV market of nearly 920 MW (Australia might make top 10) 18

19 Large scale solar is negligible in Australia at present (though growing) Approx. 61,000 RECs in 2014 and 159,000 in 2015 (1%) 145 projects MW operating at end Jan more than 1000 MW under development or construction (incl Solar flagships and ACT tender) As at 31 Jan 2016 ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA Total Total Vic 22 solar power stations with 13.5 MW capacity 19

20 43 Solar Power stations accredited in 2015 (end Dec 2015) Power stations accredited (as at 15 January 2016) Nominated person Power station name Accreditation Accreditation Capacity Fuel Source State code date (MW) AAD Nominees Pty Ltd Australian Antarctic Division HQ Solar SRPVTA02 Solar TAS 7/10/ ACT Education and Training Directorate Hedley Beare Centre for Teaching and Learning SRPVAC09 Solar ACT 17/12/ AGL Broken Hill Solar Plant - NSW SRPVNS36 Solar NSW 22/07/ AGL Nyngan Solar Plant - NSW SRPVNS31 Solar NSW 21/03/ Amaroo Solar Pty Ltd Amaroo Solar - ACT SRPVAC08 Solar ACT 23/12/ Autonomous Energy Pty Ltd Toyota Motor Corporation Australia Altona SRPVVC22 Solar VIC 2/09/ Bossong Engineering Pty Ltd Bossong Welshpool - Solar - WA SRPVWA18 Solar WA 13/10/ COzero Pty Ltd Sydney Theatre Company Solar - NSW SRPVNS34 Solar NSW 23/03/ Demand Manager Pty Ltd Casuarina Square Solar PV System - NT SRPVNT16 Solar NT 19/10/ Demand Manager Pty Ltd Murray Rose No5 - Solar - NSW SRPVNS43 Solar NSW 4/11/ Demand Manager Pty Ltd Rouse Hill Town Centre -Solar -NSW SRPVNS33 Solar NSW 26/03/ Ekistica Pty Ltd trading as CAT Projects Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre - NT SRPVNT15 Solar NT 12/08/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Ballarat Holden Solar - VIC SRPVVC26 Solar VIC 23/12/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd CKB Oasis Recreation Centre Solar - WA SRPVWA15 Solar WA 16/01/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd CKB Wastewater Treatment Plant Solar - WA SRPVWA16 Solar WA 16/01/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Cootamundra Oil Seed Solar - NSW SRPVNS42 Solar NSW 10/11/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Emmanuel College Administration - Solar - QLD SRPVQL19 Solar QLD 21/07/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd IKEA Logan - Solar - QLD SRPVQL18 Solar QLD 14/05/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd IKEA Marsden Park - Solar - NSW SRPVNS37 Solar NSW 16/07/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd IKEA Richmond - Solar - VIC SRPVVC21 Solar VIC 17/04/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd IKEA Springvale Solar - VIC SRPVVC20 Solar VIC 17/04/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Leeuwin Estate Solar - WA SRPVWA19 Solar WA 27/10/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Masalki Cool Stores Solar - VIC SRPVVC25 Solar VIC 16/12/ Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Sunny Crumpton Solar - QLD SRPVQL21 Solar QLD 2/11/ Lake Macquarie City Council LMCC Administrative Centre Solar NSW SRPVNS41 Solar NSW 12/11/ Mater Dei Mater Dei School Solar - NSW SRPVNS45 Solar NSW 8/12/ Peter Lehmann Wines Limited Peter Lehmann Wines - Solar - SA SRPVSA09 Solar SA 18/02/ Regional Power Corporation Yungngora Solar - WA SRPVWA20 Solar WA 17/12/ Sunlease Unit Trust No.1 Tyrrell's Ground Mount Solar - Pokolbin - NSW SRPVNS40 Solar NSW 24/11/ The Environment Shop Complete Food Services Preston - Solar - VIC SRPVVC23 Solar VIC 31/08/ The University of Queensland Gatton Solar Research Facility SRPVQL22 Solar QLD 20/11/ Todae Solar Pty Ltd Brisbane Markets - Todae Solar PV - QLD SRPVQL20 Solar QLD 3/09/ Todae Solar Pty Ltd Bupa Tamworth - Todae Solar PV - NSW SRPVNS39 Solar NSW 23/10/ Todae Solar Pty Ltd Stockland Shellharbour - Todae Solar PV - NSW SRPVNS38 Solar NSW 3/09/ University of New South Wales UNSW Library - Solar - NSW SRPVNS35 Solar NSW 7/05/ UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG University of Wollongong - SBRC - Solar - NSW SRPVNS32 Solar NSW 2/03/ Weipa Solar Farm Pty Ltd Weipa Solar Farm - QLD SRPVQL17 Solar QLD 29/05/ Wesco Electrics (1966) Pty Ltd Amcap Distribution Welshpool - Solar - WA SRPVWA17 Solar WA 18/08/ Woolworths Ltd Woolworths Coolalinga Solar NT SRPVNT17 Solar NT 10/11/ Power station applications pending registration Nominated person 39 Power Stations Capacity (MW) Origin Energy Electricity Limited Royal Australian Mint Solar ACT Solar ACT Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd Mazenod College Solar - VIC Solar VIC Green Energy Trading Pty Ltd IKEA Tempe - Solar - NSW Solar NSW Freecor International Pty Limited Freecor Stanfast - Solar QLD Solar QLD Power Stations

21 Considerable interest in large scale PV ARENA large-scale program ($100m) 22 Projects shortlisted with combined capacity of 766 MW LCOE less than $135/MWh (2 projects in Vic) Qld Govt 60 MW large scale program We are not going to meet the 2018 LGC target and LGC price has increased dramatically 21

22 Spot LGC price over $80 Contracting for LGC sales remains a problem 22

23 GET Services 23

24 Easy Sign Fastest Paperless system Several years to develop Electronic signatures (using secure certificate) Compatible with any Web enabled device More efficient and timely processing passing benefit to customers through higher price for on-line processing Nick Butler: Save money and time by not having to chase up signatures 24

25 Finance for commercial size systems 25

26 Power stations Have registered 19 power stations We will fix LGC prices for up to 4 years 26

27 Energy Efficiency Certificates 27

28 How will we go in 2016? 28

29 Compliance issues Counterfeit panels Fraudulent STC creation (NSW) 29

30 Counterfeit Panels 30

31 Fraudulent STC Creation 31

32 Conclusion Commercial market continues to grow Residential PV market expected to continue contracting Deeming starts to fall next year (only 14 years) Higher LGC prices supporting increased roll-out of solar power stations Political climate better for renewables and climate policy to be reviewed in

33 Thank you Presented by: Ric Brazzale BComm, MBA Managing Director T or ric.brazzale@greenenergytrading.com.au greenenergytrading.com.au