Unit 4 Analyze and Interpret:

Transcription

1 NATIONAL OC E ANIC AND ATMOS P HE R IC ADMINIS TR ATION LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Pilot Curriculum Guide U.S. D E P A R T ME N T O F C O MME R C E Unit 4 Analyze and Interpret: Data Analysis Activities for the Classroom 2nd edition Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association University of California, Santa Barbara

2 LiMPETS Curriculum This new edition of the LiMPETS curriculum was created by the Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association in partnership with many generous individuals and organizations. We would like to thank everyone for their countless and valuable contributions to this project. Funders California Sea Grant College funding supported the establishment of the LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program with Dr. John Pearse and the Seymour Marine Discovery Center of UC Santa Cruz. NOAA B-WET (Bay Watershed Education and Training Program) provided full support for the development and design of this curriculum ( ). Curriculum Development and Editing Gillian Ashenfelter, Lick-Wilmerding High School Cynthia Cudaback, Ocean Consulting Amy Dean (editor), Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association Dr. Jennifer Saltzman, Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association Tammie Visintainer, University of California, Berkeley Alison Young, Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association Maps, Illustrations and Design Illustrations: Jamie Hall, Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association Maps: Tim Reed, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Design: Annabelle Ison, Ison Design ii LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide 2nd Edition Pilot copyright 2011

3 Table of Contents Unit 4 Analyze and Interpret: Data Analysis Activities for the Classroom Using the LiMPETS Curriculum 2 CA State Standards and Ocean Literacy Principles 3 Activity: Using Vertical Transect Data to Visualize Zonation at the Rocky Intertidal 5 Part 1: Summarizing Your Data...8 Part 2: Graphing Your Data...9 Part 3: Compare Your Data to Intertidal Research...10 Activity: Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time 12 Worksheet: Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time...14 Activity: Global Climate Change Exploration: Impact on Intertidal Species 15 Part 1: Climate Change Can Long-term Data Provide Solutions?...17 Part 2: Increasing Ocean Temperatures...18 Part 3: Sea Level Rise...20

4 Using the LiMPETS Curriculum The LiMPETS curriculum was designed for a broad range of participants; middle school and high school students, college undergraduates, environmental education organizations, and community groups. We encourage you to adapt and customize this curriculum to suit the needs of your unique class or group. However, there are some essential elements that are required in order to participate. At minimum, teachers or group leaders should set aside three days to conduct the essential elements of the program: one day for classroom preparation, one day for monitoring, and one day for data entry and assessment. The following outlines both the required and optional elements of this curriculum: Unit 1: Getting Started (required reading for teachers and group leaders) Unit 2: Engage and Prepare: In-class Introductory Activities for Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Activity: The Essentials of LiMPETS In-class Preparation (required) Activity: Monitoring with Life-Sized Photo Quadrats (suggested) Activity: Monitoring Sea Stars Using the Total Count Method (optional) Activity: LiMPETS Claymation Identification Game (optional) Assessment: Student Pre- and Post-Monitoring Reflection (optional) Unit 3: Investigate and Archive: LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring and Data Entry Activity: LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring (required) Activity: Data Entry (required) Unit 4: Analyze and Interpret: Data Analysis Activities for the Classroom (optional) Activity: Using Vertical Transect Data to Visualize Zonation at the Rocky Intertidal Activity: Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time Activity: Global Climate Change Exploration Impact on Intertidal Species Unit 5: Communicate: Effectively communicating science and taking action in your community (optional) Activity: Student Pre- and Post-Monitoring Reflection Activity: Communicating Science Through Posters, Scientific Papers, and Oral Presentations Activity: Taking Personal Action to Protect the Ocean Us Vs Them 2 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

5 The California State Standards and Ocean Literacy Principles The LiMPETS curriculum is aligned with the following: the California Education Standards in science and math for grades the Ocean Literacy Principles and Concepts, which identifies the content knowledge that an ocean literate person should know by the end of 12th grade, Each Ocean Literacy Principle is supported by Fundamental Concepts comparable to those underlying the National Science Education Standards. The table below outlines the core standards addressed by each activity in Unit Four for grades Activity CA State Science and Math Standards Ocean Literacy Principles Using Vertical Transect Data to Visualize Zonation at the Rocky Shore Grade 6: Ecology 5.e. Students know the number and types of organisms an ecosystem can support depends on the resources available and on abiotic factors. Grade 6: Investigation & Experimentation 7.b.c.e. b. Use tools and technology to perform tests, collect data, and display data. c. Construct appropriate graphs from data and develop qualitative statements about the relationships between variables. e. Recognize whether evidence is consistent with a proposed explanation. Grade 7: Investigation & Experimentation 7.a. Select and use appropriate tools and technology to perform tests, collect data, and display data. Grade 8: Investigation & Experimentation 9.e. Construct appropriate graphs from data and develop quantitative statements about the relationships between variables. Grades 9 12: Investigation & Experimentation 1.a.d.k.n. a. Use appropriate tools and technology to analyze relationships, and display data. d. Formulate explanations by using logic and evidence. k. Recognize the cumulative nature of scientific evidence. n. Know that when an observation does not agree with an accepted scientific theory, the observation is sometimes mistaken or the theory is sometimes wrong. Grades 9 12: Ecology 6.b.c. b. Students know how to analyze changes in an ecosystem resulting from changes in climate, human activity, or changes in population size. c. Students know how fluctuations in population size in an ecosystem are determined by the relative rates of birth, immigration, emigration, and death. Math Grade 6: Number Sense 2.3. Solve addition, subtraction, multiplication and division problems, including those arising in concrete situations. Math Grade 7: Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability 1.1. Know various forms of display for data sets Represent two numerical variables on a scatterplot and describe how the data points are distributed and any apparent relationship that exists between variables. Math Grades 8 12: Probability and Statistics 8.0. Students organize and describe distributions of data. 5.d. Ocean biology provides unique examples of adaptations and relationships among organisms. 5.f. Ocean habitats are defined by environmental factors. Due to interactions of abiotic factors such as salinity, temperature, oxygen, ph, light, nutrients, pressure, substrate and circulation, ocean life is not evenly distributed temporally or spatially, i.e., it is patchy. 5.h. Tides, waves and predation cause vertical zonation patterns along the shore, influencing the distribution and diversity of organisms.

6 Activity CA State Science and Math Standards Ocean Literacy Principles Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time Global Climate Change Exploration Grade 6: Ecology 5.d.e. d. Students know different kinds of organisms may play similar ecological roles in similar biomes. e. Students know the number and types of organisms an ecosystem can support depends on the resources available and on abiotic factors. Grades 9 12: Ecology 6.a.b. a. Students know biodiversity is the sum total of different kinds of organisms and is affected by alterations of habitats. b. Students know how to analyze changes in an ecosystem resulting from changes in population size. Grades 9 12: Investigation & Experimentation 1.d.k. d. Formulate explanations by using logic and evidence. k. Recognize the cumulative nature of scientific evidence. Grade 8: Investigation & Experimentation 9.e. Construct appropriate graphs from data and develop quantitative statements about the relationships between variables. Grades 9 12: Ecology 6.b. b. Students know how to analyze changes in an ecosystem resulting from changes in climate, human activity, or changes in population size. Grades 9 12: Earth Sciences 6. Climate is the long-term average of a region s weather and depends on many factors. Grades 9 12: Investigation & Experimentation 1.a.d.k.n. a. Use appropriate tools and technology to analyze relationships, and display data. d. Formulate explanations by using logic and evidence. k. Recognize the cumulative nature of scientific evidence. n. Know that when an observation does not agree with an accepted scientific theory, the observation is sometimes mistaken or the theory is sometimes wrong. Math Grade 7: Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability 1.1. Know various forms of display for data sets Represent two numerical variables on a scatterplot and informally describe how the data points are distributed and any apparent relationship that exists between the two variables. Math Grades 8 12: Probability and Statistics 8.0. Students organize and describe distributions of data by using a number of different methods, including frequency tables, histograms and bar graphs. 5.d. Ocean biology provides unique examples of adaptations and relationships among organisms. 5.h. Tides, waves and predation cause vertical zonation patterns along the shore, influencing the distribution and diversity of organisms. 5.h. Tides, waves and predation cause vertical zonation patterns along the shore, influencing the distribution and diversity of organisms. 6.f. Coastal regions are susceptible to natural hazards (tsunamis, hurricanes, cyclones, sea level change, and storm surges). 4 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

7 activity Using Vertical Transect Data to Visualize Zonation at the Rocky Intertidal Author: Tammie Visintainer Objectives: Students will be able to construct appropriate graphs from their data. Students will understand classic vertical zonation patterns in the rocky intertidal. Students will use critical thinking skills to determine whether their data are consistent with published scientific findings. Students will determine if their data support or refute the claims of the studies. Activity Time: minutes amy dean Grade Level: 6 12 LiMPETS Web Resources: Rocky Intertidal Results Pages, Materials: Worksheet Part 1 Summarizing Your Data Worksheet Part 2 Graphing Your Data Worksheet Part 3 Compare Your Data to Scientific Evidence Access to the LiMPETS website (optional). Photocopies of vertical transect datasheets (one copy for each student group) if completing Part 2. Background: By conducting some or all of the parts of this activity, students can learn to understand and manipulate data, create and interpret graphs, and can begin to understand the larger meaning of their monitoring efforts. the so what?, who cares?, and what does it all mean? in a broader context. You may choose to adapt or customize this activity to suit the needs of your class. This activity can also help you, as a teacher, familiarize yourself with the online data and graphing tools on the LiMPETS website. It can provide you with ideas and options for what kinds of questions can be asked of the data. Note: You must have completed a vertical transect on your monitoring day in order to complete this activity. If students did not find many of the species listed in Table 1 (along the vertical transect), you may want to skip this activity. When a species is rare, it will be difficult for students to identify zonation patterns and draw conclusions. Procedure teacher prep for parts 1 and 2: Option #1 Summarizing student data: If you have internet access and have already entered your data into the LiMPETS database, you can access a data table online that summarizes your data. Go to the Data Entry and Results page of the LiMPETS website > click on Rocky Intertidal Results and follow instructions to generate a data table for your vertical transect on the date you monitored. Option #2 Summarizing student data: If you do not have internet access, you may simply photocopy all of the vertical transect data sheets. Each student group should have a full set. Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 5

8 procedure: If necessary, review basic graph types with your students: bar graphs (histograms), line graphs, scatter plots, etc. If necessary, review basic intertidal ecology and zonation. Use Rocky Intertidal Fact Sheet from Unit 2. If you choose to conduct Parts 1 and 2 of the activity with your students, review with students how to calculate abundance of species as instructed on the worksheets. Explain that organizing and standardizing data enables you (and others) to make sense of your data. By reporting data in a standard format, like #/m 2, you ll be able to compare data with the work of other scientists. NOTE: You may optionally skip Parts 1 and 2 of this activity and print the graphs needed for Part 3 from the LiMPETS website. Go to the Data Entry and Results page of the LiMPETS website > click on Rocky Intertidal Results > click on Graph > select your monitoring site and Vertical Transect > select View monthly zonation pattern from high to low intertidal > select the four species from Table 1, Part 1 and the month that you conducted your monitoring. Have students complete all (or part) of the student worksheets during class or for homework. extension: Students can generate various different types of graphs from the LiMPETS website. You may choose to have students interpret their data using one or all of these graphs Assessment: After students complete their worksheets and data analyses, discuss as a whole class. If students will be required to write up a lab report for their LiMPETS investigations, you may ask students to complete the Results and Discussion portion of the report after completing this activity. Looking for ways for your students to communicate their findings? Options for poster and oral presentations are described in Unit 5. Answer Key Part 3: 1a. The answer depends on the class data. Half-tide should be located at approximately the middle of your transect. Some conditions of the extreme low tide zone may include heavy wave action, competition for space and food, and almost constant submersion by water. 1b. The answer will depend on your class data. Some of the transects at LiMPETS monitoring sites cross over a mussel bed while others do not. While your site may not have a distinct mussel bed in the mid tide zone, your data may still show that mussel cover is higher in the mid and low tide zones. 1c. Mussels can only eat when submerged in water. They open their shells only slightly and use ciliary currents to move water through their gills. Detritus and plankton are filtered out and transported to their mouth. Mussels that live lower in the intertidal zone are submerged for longer periods of time and can therefore eat more. 2a. Depends on your class data. The sharpness of zonation patterns may depend on species abundance; therefore you may be unable to determine a pattern if you did not find very many limpets. Also, there are many different species of limpets. Many inhabit the high intertidal, while others inhabit the mid and low intertidal. 2b. Depends on your site and your class data. Your site may have an abundance of limpet species that inhabit the high zone, the mid or low intertidal zone. 2c. Two general predications exist regarding climate change impacts to intertidal zonation. First, sea level is rising by approximately 3 mm per year. Intertidal zones, as well as the animals and algae within these zones, are predicted to shift shoreward in response to this rising sea level. Second, rising temperatures could compress the entire intertidal zone, making it more narrow. As temperatures rise, heat-sensitive intertidal organisms will not be able to spend as much time out of water: it ll be too hot for them to survive. Therefore, they will be forced to live lower on the shore and deeper in the water. 3a. Dessication stress is the stress an intertidal organism experiences by drying out from exposure to air and 6 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

9 wind. Adaptations to prevent dessication include hard skeletons or shells, mucus covering, and the ability to seal tightly to rocks or move underneath a rock or other moist area. Coralline algae is very susceptible to drying out. Some species are highly branched and resist dessication by retaining water between their fronds at low tide, like paint between the bristles of a paintbrush. 3b. Coralline algae are common in the mid and low intertidal zones. Therefore, if your data show this type of zonation, your graph should show more algae cover in the middle and lower portions of your transect. could be a few explanations. Because urchins are most common in the low intertidal, many transects at our various sites do not reach low enough in the intertidal to reach suitable urchin habitat. 4b. Urchin survive so well in wave swept low intertidal areas because they commonly inhabit rounded burrows or depressions in rocks that protect them from the pounding surf. Urchins create these burrows themselves using their spines and grinding teeth. 3c. A crust-like calcium carbonate shell covers the bodies of coralline algae and makes them largely inedible to most herbivores. Though it seems plausible that calcified algae may be less susceptible to dessication because of their hard exterior, some upright corallines hold little water inside their bodies compared to fleshy seaweeds and can therefore dry out quickly when exposed to air. 4a. If you found sea urchins along your transect, the urchins were most likely located in the low intertidal zone. If your class did not find many urchins along the transect, there References Denny, M.W., and Gaines, S.D. eds. Encyclopedia of tidepools and rocky shores. Berkeley, California: University of California Press, Rickets, E.F Between Pacific Tides. Standford, CA: Stanford University Press. Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 7

10 student worksheet Part 1: Summarizing Your Data Name Have you ever heard the phrase, A picture is worth a thousand words? In science, the same is true of graphs. Complex ideas in science can be described with just one graph. Creating a graph of your class data is the best and easiest way to see (and show others) what you found at the rocky intertidal. Before you can create a graph however, you must organize your data and represent all data in a standard, consistent way. Instructions: Use your class data to complete Table 1 below. Fill in the location of each quadrat along your transect in the top row titled METER LOCATION. Example: 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, etc. For mussels, limpets and upright coralline algae, record the number of squares where these species were counted within each quadrat along the transect. Data will be represented as: squares/0.25m 2. Note: the quadrat size is 0.25 m 2. Scientists typically report abundance as #/m 2. Record abundance of purple sea urchins below in this way by making a simple calculation. Our quadrats are 0.25 m 2, therefore you multiply by 4 to get #/m 2. For example, if 4 urchins were found in a quadrat, you would report the number in the table below as 16 urchins/m 2. Table 1. Abundance of Species Along Vertical Transect METER LOCATION (M) 0 Sea mussels (squares/0.25m 2 ) Limpets (squares/0.25m 2 ) Upright coralline algae (squares/0.25m 2 ) Purple sea urchin (#/m 2 ) 8 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

11 student worksheet Part 2: Graphing Your Data Name Instructions: Using Table 1, make a line graph that shows the vertical zonation patterns of four intertidal species. Make one graph for mussels, limpets and/or coralline algae using a separate line for each species. Include a legend. Make a second graph for purple sea urchins. The x-axis = quadrat location along transect (m). The y-axis = abundance of species (#/m 2 ) for urchins or (squares/0.25m 2 ) for all other species. Create a title for your graphs and label your axes. graph Title: graph Title: Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 9

12 student handout student worksheet Part 3: Compare Your Data To Scientific Evidence Name Instructions: You will be presented with a piece of evidence taken from scientific books or journals. This evidence appears in quotations. Compare the line graphs you made from Part 2 to the evidence from the scientific literature that applies to the appropriate species. Answer the questions that follow each piece of scientific evidence below. 1. sea mussels: 2. Limpets: Scientific evidence: The mussel (Mytilus californianus) forms great beds that extend, in favorable localities, from above the half-tide line to well below extreme low water. Here is another animal that is distinctly at home in crashing waves. (Ricketts, 1985) Questions: a. Assuming that the transect at your monitoring site stretches from the high to low intertidal, at what quadrat location (m) is the location of half-tide (mid tide zone)? At what location is extreme low water? What are the conditions like at extreme low water? Scientific evidence: Herbivorous snails and limpets are often extremely abundant in the high intertidal zone. (Denny, 2007) Questions: a. At what zone or location do limpets cover the most area along your transect? Describe the zonation pattern. Is there a clear, distinct pattern, a subtle pattern, or are limpets located in patchy distributions throughout the intertidal? b. Do your data agree with the scientific evidence above? Why or why not? b. At what location do mussels cover the most area along your transect? At what location do they cover the least area? Do your data agree with the statement above? Why or why not? c. How do mussels feed? Explain how the way they feed might influence where they live. c. Consider the effects that climate change might have on animals in the intertidal. How might zonation patterns of limpets and other species change at your site in 50 years, if impacted by climate change and rising sea levels? 10 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

13 4. purple sea urchin: Florida Center for Instructional Technology Scientific evidence: Here (in the low intertidal) the purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) is distinctly at home, having made one of the most interesting adaptations of all to the pounding surf. (Ricketts, 1985) Questions: a. Did your class find any urchins within your transect? If so, where along the transect were they located? 3. upright coralline ALGAE: Scientific evidence: c. What is the interesting adaptation that the author is referring to above? Why is this an important adaptation for where this animals lives? Coralline algae which are prone to desiccation stress and thus less common at higher shore levels, often form extensive stands (in the low intertidal zone) (Denny, 2007) Questions: a. What is desiccation stress? What types of adaptations would an organism need to survive desiccation stress? b. Assuming that the transect at your monitoring site stretches from the high to the low intertidal, in which zone did you find the most upright coralline algae? Does your data agree with the scientific evidence above? c. What types of adaptations do coralline algae need in order to survive in the rocky intertidal? Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 11

14 activity Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time Author: Tammie Visintainer Objectives: Students will be able to read and interpret graphs. Students will understand the role that keystone species play in an ecological community, specifically how ochre sea stars impact other organisms in the rocky intertidal. Students will be able to describe why long-term data are important. Activity Time: minutes LiMPETS Web Resources: Rocky Intertidal Results Pages, Materials: Student Worksheet: Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time Access to the LiMPETS website (optional) Background: In the intertidal, not all species are created equally. Keystone species play a major role in maintaining the structure and function of an ecological community, and they have a disproportionately large effect on the system in which they live (relative to their abundance). Their presence impacts many other members of the ecosystem and the decline of a keystone species can lead to declines in biodiversity in the entire area. Ochre sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus) are considered keystone species in the rocky intertidal ecosystem because they control the trophic interactions in their habitat. Trophic interactions involve predation between species and different trophic levels, or levels in a food web. For example, the ochre sea star controls populations of mussels one of their favorite prey. If the sea stars are removed from a rocky intertidal environment, mussels take over and populate any 12 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide alison young Grade Level: 6 12 free space they can find on rocks and in crevices. Without the sea star to keep their populations in check, the mussels will eventually outcompete most other species for space. This type of trophic interaction drastically decreases the diversity of the rocky intertidal in this region. There are other organisms that have gained keystone species status in their marine habitats such as sea otters and sharks. However, the term keystone species was introduced by Robert Paine, a professor at the University of Washington in 1969, who used it to explain the relationship between ochre sea stars and mussels. Dr. Paine found that this sea star played a key role in its habitat by maintaining the balance of all other species in the rocky intertidal region. Marine ecologists that study intertidal organisms take repeated samples in the same locations over time in order to establish baseline data about the life history patterns (e.g. reproduction, growth) and population dynamics of the organisms. If scientists understand the life history patterns and population dynamics of intertidal organisms under natural conditions they have developed a baseline.

15 In the LiMPETS program, by counting ochre sea stars in a large, permanent area, we can detect long-term changes in their abundance that may result in changes throughout the entire rocky intertidal community. Procedure: If necessary, review basic graph types with your students: bar graphs, line graphs, pie charts, etc. Introduce the term keystone species and discuss how ochre sea stars illustrate this concept in the rocky intertidal. References: Harley, C.D.G, Pankey, M.S., Wares, J.P., Grosberg, R.K., Wonham, M.J Color polymorphism and genetic structure in the sea star, Pisaster ochraceous. Biological Bulletin 211: Paine, R.T Intertidal community structure: experimental studies on the relationship between a dominant competitor and its principal predator. Oecologia 15: Introduce the term trophic interactions and discuss the interactions between mussels and sea stars. Have students complete all (or part) of the student worksheet during class or for homework. Assessment: After students complete their worksheets and data analyses, discuss as a whole class. Looking for ways for your students to communicate their findings? Options for poster and oral presentations are described in Unit 5. Answer Key: = 3.7 /10 m 2 ; 2010 = 4.4/10 m 2 2. Lowest = 2006, 2.3/10 m 2 ; Highest = 2009, 4.5/10 m 2 3. Generally, sea stars are increasing. With data from only, a decrease in abundance would be reported. Long-term data is important in order to understand the natural variability and long-term trends in a natural population. 4. Because the population of sea stars has increased slightly at Pt. Bonita, their prey (mussels) may decrease slightly in abundance. Changes in the size of a mussel bed may impact many other members of the community. Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 13

16 student worksheet Tracking a Keystone Species Over Time Name In the intertidal, not all species are created equally. Keystone species are species that play a major role in maintaining the structure and function of an ecological community, and they have disproportionately large effects on the systems in which they live (relative to their abundance). Their presence impacts many other members of the ecosystem and the decline of a keystone species can lead to declines in biodiversity in the entire area. Ochre sea stars, beavers, and sea otters are all examples of keystone species. Instructions: Examine the trends in sea star abundance at Point Bonita, California. Answer the questions below. 1. What was the abundance of ochre sea stars at Point Bonita in 2007? In 2010? 2. Between 2005 and 2010, when was the abundance of ochre sea stars the lowest at Point Bonita? The highest? Record abundance for each along with the year. 3. Did the number of sea stars increase, decrease, or remain stable over time (from ) at Point Bonita? How might the picture change if you had data for 2005 and 2006 only? Why is long-term data important? 4. How would mussels and other members of the ecosystem be impacted by the changes in sea star abundance (from )? Explain your answer. 5 Ochre sea star abundance at pt. bonita, marin county: Average # per 10 m LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

17 activity Global Climate Change Exploration: Impact on Intertidal Species Author: Tammie Visintainer Objectives: Students will be able to read and interpret graphs. Students will be able to predict and explain how changes in climate may impact intertidal species. Students will be able to describe why long-term data are important. Grade Level: 9 12 LiMPETS Web Resources: Rocky Intertidal Results Pages, anthony fisher Activity Time: minutes Materials: Handout Part 1 Climate Change: Can Long-Term Data Provide Solutions? Worksheet Part 2 Increasing Ocean Temperatures Worksheet Part 3 Rising Sea Levels Internet access (optional) Background: It is clear that climate has had, and will continue to have, large impacts on the rocky intertidal. In response to rising air and sea temperatures, the distribution and abundance of species along our coast is changing. Indeed, that was what was seen when species abundance was compared between the early 1930s and the mid 1990s at one site in Monterey Bay: several common southern California species that were rare or absent in the 1930s are now abundant in the Monterey Bay area. Species range is the furthest north and south a species has been recorded. For example, the range of the giant green anemone currently extends from Alaska to northern Baja, Mexico. It is considered a cold-water species. As a result of global warming, this species (and other cold-water species) may disappear or decrease in abundance at sites within its range. The sunburst anemone extends from north-central California to central Baja, California. It is considered a warmwater species. In California, it has both extended its range northward and is increasing in abundance at sites within its range. Long-term monitoring shows that some rocky intertidal invertebrates have shifted poleward by as much as 50 km per decade. In California, examples of species that are shifting northward include snails, anemones, and barnacles. Range shifts can not only be caused by global warming, but by changes in oceanographic patterns, El Niño, and climate variations that occur on a scale of decades (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). Moreover, climate change will likely cause a rise in sea level. As sea levels rise along the rocky intertidal, the different zones may begin to shift higher onto the shore. It is important to understand how climate change impacts the rocky intertidal. Our understanding is limited and we need Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 15

18 to know more in order to accurately predict what species and which areas will be most affected by climate change. Without this knowledge, we cannot protect these valued and important resources. Procedure: You may opt to complete part or all of this activity with your students, as best suits your needs and the needs of your students. If necessary, review how to read and interpret graphs with students. If desired, assign reading in Part 1 of this activity in-class or for homework. As a class, discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on rocky intertidal organisms. Have students complete all (or part) of the student worksheet(s) during class or for homework. Assessment: After students complete their worksheets and interpret data, discuss as a whole class. Answer Key Part 2: 1. Southern species m 2 3. Northern central California to central Baja California. There may be differences in reported range limits for a variety of reasons. Primarily, either a reported range limit is questionable/unreliable in nature OR there are real changes in the range of the species over time caused by climate change, El Niño, etc. 4. Northern. 5. Predictions (and evidence) show the sunburst anemone is both expanding its range northward and, as water temperatures increase, is increasing in abundance in the northern part of its range. At Fitzgerald Marine Reserve, data suggest an increase in abundance; however, longterm data over many more years is needed to in order to show trends that may result from climate change. 6. Answers will vary for each site. Answer Key Part 3: 1a. 39% 1b. 0 and Barnacles have shifted higher in the intertidal between 2007 and Changes in climate occur over a large temporal scale (30 years or more). Given that these data span only 4 years, we cannot say that global climate change is the cause of this trend. El Niño and climate variations that occur on a scale of decades (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) could play a role. References CeNCOOS - Sea Level Changes. Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System. Web. July Helmuth, B, Mieszkowska, N, Moore, P and Hawkins, S.J Changing Worlds: Forecasting the Responses of Rocky Intertidal Ecosystems to Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37: LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

19 student handout Part 1: Climate Change Can Long-Term Data Provide Solutions? Global mean sea level rise: present How do we know if and how intertidal organisms are affected by climate change? How can we predict the impacts of climate change in the future? These can be difficult, complex questions to answer. Scientists have already discovered changes in the distribution, abundance,and range limits of some intertidal species due to climate change. In fact, as sea surface temperatures rise, some species have shifted their range limits poleward by as much as 50 km per decade. Climate change may also impact intertidal zonation. Would the location of a large mussel bed change as sea levels rise? Barnalces? Sea urchins? Currently, the long-term datasets needed to demonstrate climate impacts on zonation are rare or absent. However, two general predications exist. First, sea level is rising by approximately 3 mm per year. Intertidal zones, as well as the animals and algae within these zones, are predicted to shift shoreward in response to this rising sea level. Second, rising temperatures could compress the entire intertidal zone, making it more narrow. As temperatures rise, heat-sensitive intertidal organisms will not be able to spend as much time out of water. It ll be too hot for them to survive. Therefore, they will be forced to live lower on the shore and deeper in the water. It is important to understand how climate change impacts the rocky intertidal. Our understanding is limited and we need to know more in order to accurately predict what species and which areas will be most affected by climate change. Without this knowledge, we cannot protect these valued and important resources. Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 17

20 student worksheet Part 2: Increasing Ocean Temperatures Name Ocean temperatures are increasing as a result of global climate change. How will species respond? Rocky intertidal organisms could respond in a variety of ways, Duxbury including by shifting their range northward to where better environmental conditions exist. In this activity, you will examine real student-collected data from the LiMPETS program to determine if one species, the sunburst anemone, is responding to climate change. Deer Creek Instructions: Examine the graph below and answer the questions that follow. 1. Using data from the graph below, would you describe the sunburst anemone as a northern or a southern species? Use the data to support your answer. 2. What is the abundance of sunburst anemones at the location that is farthest north? 3. What is the range of the sunburst anemone? Use the data below and at least 2 online sources to find out. If sources report different ranges, predict why you think answers may vary. 10 average abundance of sunburst anemones at california locations, # per m Duxbury Fitzgerald MR Pigeon Point Davenport Natural Bridges Almar Deer Creek North > South 18 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide

21 questions continued: Use the graph below to answer the following questions. 4. The graph at the bottom of this page shows data from Fitzgerald Marine Reserve, located just south of the San Francisco Bay. Currently, is this site located near the northern, central or southern limit of the sunburst anemone s range? 5. Would you predict a southern species, like the sunburst anemone, to increase or decrease in abundance as a result of climate change (at this location)? Why? Does the data below support your prediction? 6. OPTIONAL If you have internet access (and if you conduct total counts of sunburst anemones at your site), go to the LiMPETS website and create a graph, like the one below, of sunburst anemones at your site. Go to the Data Entry and Results page of the LiMPETS website > click on Rocky Intertidal Results > click on Graph > select your monitoring site and Total Organism Count > select All Schools and Sunburst anemone > create graph. Notice the 95% confidence intervals on the graph. These show that we are 95% confident that the mean lies within the interval. Generally, it tells us how much variability is present in the data. Big, long bars mean that the data collected, in a given year, were highly variable. Shorter bars mean that the anemone counts in a given year were not as highly variable. Print your graph and answer the questions that follow. How would you predict that sunburst anemones respond to increasing ocean temperatures at your site? Does the data support your prediction? If not, propose explanations for why yor data shows something different. 40 average sunburst anemones counts at fitzgerald marine reserve, : includes 95% confidence intervals Average Count Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association 19

22 student worksheet Part 3: Sea Level Rise Name Currently, global sea level is rising at a rate of 3 mm per year. We don t know exactly how fast and how high sea level will continue to rise in the future, however the State of California estimates that sea level will rise 1.4 meters by How will intertidal species respond to the rising seas? In this activity, you will examine real student-collected data from the LiMPETS program to determine if one species, the acorn barnacle, is responding to sea level rise. Instructions: Examine the graph below and answer the following questions. Questions: 1. Reading a graph like this can be tricky at first. Each line along the graph shows WHERE most acorn barnacles are found along the vertical transect at Pigeon Point, in a relative sense. If the line goes up steeply from one location to the next, this means that a large percentage of barnacles were found at that location. If the line is flat, no barnacles were found at that location. acorn barnacles along a vertical transect a. In 2010, of all the barnacles found along the transect, what percentage was found at meter 0? at pigeon point: b. Fill in the blanks. Along the transect at Pigeon Point, almost all barnacles are found between meter and meter Between 2007 and 2010, describe how barnacles have changed (or shifted) their location at Pigeon Point. Cumulative Percentage Could sea level rise be causing this shift? Consider the time range presented in the graph and the current rate of sea level rise Location (m) Along Vertical Transect High intertidal Low intertidal 20 LiMPETS Rocky Intertidal Monitoring Program: Curriculum Guide