Weighing Costs and Benefits of a meshed grid in the Baltic Sea.

Transcription

1 50Her t z En BW Weighing Costs and Benefits of a meshed grid in the Baltic Sea. Anna- Kathrin Wallasch (Deutsche WindGuard) Richard Weinhold (IKEM)

2 Agenda 2 1. M et hodology and Case St udies 2. Benef its: Design and Result of t he Regional M ar ket M odel 3. Cost s: Design and Result of t he Linear Cost M odel 4. Balance and Conclusion 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

3 CBA Methodology 3 ENTSO-E methodology 2.0 Benefits Costs System Cost Ad equ a cy rate Cables (AC&DC) Onshore Nodes Electricity Prices Market Model Offshore Nodes Linear Cost Model

4 Cases St udi ed 4 Two Pre- Feasibility An a lys es Pr e- Feasibility Analysis 1: Sw eden Poland Lithuania Pr e- Feasibility Analysis 2: Ger m an y Sw eden Denm ar k M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

5 CS1 (SE/PO/LT) with High Offshore Wind Power 5 Cost and Benef it Differ ences Baseline Scenario 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

6 CS2 (DE/ SE/ DK) with High Offshore Wind Power 6 Cost and Benef it Differ ences Baseline Scenario 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

7 Benefits: Design and Result of the Regional Market Model 7 50Hertz

8 CBA Application Model Overview 8 Model dynelmod: Linear pr ogr am t o det er m ine cost - ef f ect ive developm ent pat hways in t he Eur opean elect r icity sect or Calculat ion St eps 1. I nvest m ent Investment into Conventional and renewable generation, cross- border capacities Reduced time series used 2. Dispat ch Investment result from step 1 fixed Tim e series with 8760 hours M odel: 33 European countries 31 conventional or renewable generation and storage technologies 9 investm ent periods, five- year steps Assumptions PTDF calculation Boundary conditions Investment Time series calculation Outputs Investment into generation capacities, storage, transm ission capacities Generation and storage dispatch Emissions by fuel Flows, imports, exports Full Dispatch

9 CBA Application Model Overview 9 Application i n BI G M odel Cont ex t Cost benefit analysis: Focus on Baltic countries (but calculate full dispatch for all countries) Relevant I nput s Inst alled Capacit ies, Fuel Cost s, Em ission lim it s/ prices Scen ar i o- specific dat a: Connect ions bet ween count ries Wind farm integrations Outputs relevant for CBA Security of supply hourly adequacy margin Electricity generation costs and prices. Relevant stakeholders for welfare implications: Consumers, Producers (conventional and renewable), TSOs Hourly generation & storage dispatch Cross- border flows RES Integration factor (rate of curtailment) Generation and storage dispatch Emissions by country and fuel

10 Cost- Benefit analysis Modeling Assumptions 10 Electricity gen er at i on capacities Ent soe TYNDP 2016 M arket M odeling Data for 2020 and 2030 Scenario Vision 3 Offshore wind capacities for the baltic sea r egion are set within consortium and differ by scenario CO2 decarbonization t ar get : Mt CO2 1,500 1, , % CO2 em ission r educt ion until Ot h er assum ptions Prices for f uels et c. are based on the Eur opean Commission s Ref er ence Scenar io 2016 Tim e ser ies: structure based on year 20 13, full load hours are scaled to m eet projections

11 GoA 3.6, Case Study SE PL LT System Cost differences (without scenario specific costs) 11 Overall system cost differ ences in 2017 bn Scenario sum CS1: High wind, no integration --> high integration CS1: High wind, no integration --> partial integration CS1: Low wind, no integration --> high integration CS1: Low wind, no integration --> partial integration In the high wind scenarios, the difference is relatively small Cost changes occur due to reduced grid expansion need in case of higher offshore interconnection Mainly in Sweden, Poland, and Lithuania. Other Countries less affected

12 GoA 3.6, Case Study SE PL LT Price development 12 Aver age electricity price difference for scenario variations High wind PL Low wind Low wind SE High wind LT High wind

13 System Ad equ a cy / Security of Supply 13 Syst em Adequacy depends on: Unused gener at ion and available capacity in each country State of net w or k: flows and flow directions, w hich det er m ines the available im port capacity Derive System Ad equ a cy Margin for each hour in each country Syst em Adequacy In all scenarios t he syst em configurat ion is adequat e Adequacy is similar in all scenarios For Lithuania the system adequacy is lower in the High Integration scenarios 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

14 Ad equ a cy in case of line outages 14 No Integration Question: Do scenarios with higher connectivity provide higher adequacy in case of a line outage? Comparison: Hourly Adequacy with and Partial Integration without lines. Lines excluded f or syst em adequacy com par ison: No Integration: Main Interconnectors Partial Integration: Lines to Central Point Max Integration: Lines between Wind farms M ax Integration

15 Ad equ a cy in case of line outages Sweden 15 Before After line outage Adequacy af t er line out age Adequacy is reduced as expected, but no threat to system adequacy overall No Integration scenario mostly affected Sim ilar adequacy reduction in partial and high integration scenarios.

16 Ad equ a cy in case of line outages Poland 16 Before Af t er Line outage Adequacy af t er line out age Differences between scenarios are smaller In case of lowest adequacy the decrease due to line outage is sm allest Partial Integration is most resilient against the modeled line outage

17 Ad equ a cy in case of line outages Lithuania 17 Before Af t er Line outage Adequacy af t er line out age Differences relative to total generation capacity largest in Lithuania High integration scenario is most robust against line outage Especially in case of already low adequacy

18 GoA 3.6, Case St u d y 2 DE SE DK System Cost differences (without scenario specific costs) 18 Overall system cost differ ences Scenario sum CS2: High wind, no integration --> high integration CS2: High wind, no integration --> partial integration CS2: Low wind, no integration --> high integration CS2: Low wind, no integration --> partial integration Cost decreases also here mostly in grid expansion. Mainly in the scenario- relevant countries Germany, Sweden, and Denmark

19 Conclusions 19 Conclusions Benef its Par t - Expectation pr evious to m odel runs: Small over all system cost differ ences bet w een levels of integration in the baltic sea r egion - Result s: Depending on Wind installation, the need for grid expansion can be r educed by incr eased offshore integration across countries - I ncr eased integration also helps to im prove system reliability Next : Combination of Benefits results with the Costs part in the following presentation

20 Costs: Design and Result of the Linear Cost Model 20 50Hertz

21 Approach 21 Linear Cost Model (incl. expect ed future t r ends) Sensitivity Analysis All r esult s dicsount ed to with an int er est r at e of 4% Evaluat ed as m ost suit able cost dat a set s 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

22 Linear Cost M odel 22 Cable Cost (Cable + I n stallation ) lengt h- and pow er dependent cost lengt h- dependent cost On sh or e Node Cost (Converter/Transformer + Installation) pow er - dependent cost f ixed cost Offshore Node Cost (Converter/Transformer + Plat f or m + Installation) pow er - dependent cost f ixed cost [Lin ear Cost Model, cf. Härtel et. al ] M M M /km M yy = 1.14 GW km x M km M yy = 0.32 GW km yy = M xx M GW GW GW x M km yy = 6.67 M xx 0.23M GW yy = M xx M 5500 GW yy = M xx M 2100 GW GW HVDC HVAC

23 Cost Results 23 CS1 (SE/PO/LT) High Offshore Wind power 6 HVDC Breakers included! bn CS1_1a Zero Integration CS1_2a Partial Integration CS1_3a Max Integration HVAC Offshore Nodes HVAC Onshore Nodes HVAC Cables HVDC Offshore Nodes HVDC Onshore Nodes HVDC Cables bn 0.24 bn

24 Cost Results 25 CS2 (DE/SE/DK) High Offshore Wind Power 2.5 bn CS2_1a Zero Integration CS2_2a Partial Integration CS2_3a Max Integration 0.46 bn 0.04 bn HVAC Offshore Nodes HVAC Onshore Nodes HVAC Cables HVDC Offshore Nodes HVDC Onshore Nodes HVDC Cables

25 Sensitivity Analysis % Relative Output Change 110% 100% 90% HVDC length- and power-dependent cable costs HVDC length-dependent cable costs HVDC power-dependent node costs HVDC power-dependent offhore node costs HVAC length- and power-dependent cable costs HVAC length-dependent cable costs HVAC power-dependent node costs HVAC power-dependent offhore node costs 80% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% Variation of Input Parameter Exem plary Analysis for CS1_ 2a (Part. In t eg., High OWP)

26 Balance 28 En BW

27 Approach 29 Net Present Value Difference compared to Base Case

28 Net Present Benefit 32 CS1 (SE/PO/LT) High Offshore Wind Power Net Present Value Difference compared to base case (bn ) Partial Integration Max Integration High Offshore Wind Power

29 Net Present Benefit 34 CS2 (DE/SE/DK) High Offshore Wind Power Net Present Value Difference compared to base case (bn ) Partial Integration Max Integration High Offshore Wind Power

30 Conclusions 36 The m ain benef it br ings t he inter connect ion, w hich is alr eady par t of t he base case (zer o integr at ion) No gener al t r end r elat ed t o t he evaluat ion of par t ial and maximum integration scenarios could be identified The cost structure is case specific Cost r educt ion potential is higher w hen hub connections are also part of the zer o integration case Reduct ion of AC com ponents could be positive but is of t en com pensat ed by additional DC offshore node cost Benefits are alm ost equal for partial and m ax integration scenarios, costs can vary significantly 23 M ay 2018, DTU Copenhagen

31 Con t act & Disclaim er 37 For further inform ation: Sign up for Newsletter» Mail: info@baltic- integrid.eu Web: integrid.eu Baltic In tegrid represented by the Lead Partner: Institute for Clim a t e Protection,Energy and Mobility (IKEM) Magazinstraße 15-16, Be r lin, Ger m a n y Phone: +49 (0) Mail: info@ikem.de Web: online.de Author contact Anna- Kathrin Wallasch a.wallasch@windguard.de Richard Weinhold riw@wip.tu- berlin.de The content of the presentation reflects the author s/ partner s views and the EU Com m ission and the MA/ JS are not liable for any use that may be made of the inform ation contained therein. All im ages are copyrighted and property of their respective owners.