Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations

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1 Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations Dave Turk, Acting Director, Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, IEA IEA Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF) - Side Event October 2017, Tokyo, Japan

2 Introduction Accelerating technological progress strengthens economies, energy security and sustainability Policies and RD&D drive down costs and improve performance Clean energy technologies are progressing, but few on track Need to focus on all technologies; lack of progress on some puts even more pressure on others IEA s new work on digitalization and energy brings new insights in understanding the role of technologies and innovation

3 Key points of orientation Global energy markets are changing rapidly Renewables supplied half of global electricity demand growth in 2016, and increase in nuclear capacity reached highest level since 1993 Global energy intensity improved by 2.1% in 2016 Electric car sales were up 40% in 2016, a new record year The energy sector remains key to sustainable economic growth 1.2B people lack access to electricity; 2.7B people lack access to clean cooking Largest source of GHG emissions today, around two-thirds of global total Largest source of air pollution, linked to 6.5 million premature deaths per year There is no single story about the future of global energy Fast-paced technological progress and changing energy business models

4 Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years an emerging trend? Gt Global energy-related CO 2 emissions IEA analysis shows that global CO 2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China.

5 How far can technology take us? GtCO 2 40 Reference Technology Scenario RTS Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO 2 reductions Global CO 2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario 2DS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario B2DS Efficiency 40% 34% Efficiency 40% Renewables Renewables 35% 15% 35% Fuel switching Fuel 5% switching 5% 18% Nuclear 6% Nuclear CCS 14% 6% 1% Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in CCS 14% 32% Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.

6 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage On track Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Accelerated improvement needed Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building construction Not on track Transport biofuels Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.

7 Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future Centralised fuel production, power and storage We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy

8 Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources Surplus heat EV H vehicle 2 We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy to a digitally-enhanced, multidirectional and integrated system that requires long-term planning for services delivery.

9 GW GW The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW) Globally installed electricity storage (GW) non-phs Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.

10 Can we change the landscape of transport? Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios Light-duty Vehicles (millions) Heavy-Duty Vehicles (millions) RTS B2DS RTS B2DS The transportation sector already experiences technological change, but won t shed its oil dependency without assertive policies.

11 Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility 2014 (123 EJ) Energy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios RTS 2060 (157 EJ) 3% B2DS 2060 (112 EJ) 24% 5% 123 EJ Electricity 31% 37% 157 EJ Electricity Electricity Electricity 54% 112 EJ 61% 31% Fossil fuels Traditional biomass Renewables Other Electricity Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite doubling floor area.

12 We need to produce materials more sustainably EJ Energy use and direct CO 2 emissions in various industrial sectors under different scenarios Other industries Pulp and paper Gt CO 2 Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals 50 2 Cement RTS B2DS 0 Iron and steel Direct CO2 emissions Effective policies and public-private collaboration are needed to enable an extensive roll-out of energy and material efficiency strategies as well as a suite of innovative technologies.

13 Mt CO₂ Mt CO₂ A challenging task ahead for CCS Amount of CO 2 captured under various scenarios Rest of world EU IND CHN Today Today 2DS B2DS MEA USA CCS is happening today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goals. The role for CCS varies based on local circumstances.

14 USD (2016) billion Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global clean energy RD&D spending Top 3 IT company R&D spenders Mission Innovation Private Public Top 3 firms Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Global RD&D spending in efficiency, coming renewables, mostly from nuclear governments. and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Mission Innovation coming could mostly provide from a much governments. needed boost.

15 Conclusions of the ETP 2017 Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented now to accelerate progress Each country should define its own transition path and scaleup its RD&D and deployment support accordingly Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require unprecedented technology policies and investments Innovation can deliver, but policies must consider the full technology cycle, and collaborative approaches can help

16 IEA Efforts on Digitalization and Energy Digitalization is the increasing application of information and communications technology (ICT) to the physical world i.e., blurring/convergence of the digital and physical worlds. Digital world = data + connectivity + analytics IEA digitalization work for many years - Efficiency (More Data, Less Energy, 2014), system integration, outlooks, sustainability, transport, industry, buildings, investment, data & statistics, electricity, oil & gas, renewables, technology (Smart Grids Technology Roadmap, 2011) Growing interest for IEA Secretariat to focus more on digitalization by IEA Members, companies, etc. While interest on digitalization is wide, current understanding of the scale and scope of potential impacts is limited, particularly quantitative and analytically-rigorous assessments Cross-IEA Digitalization & Energy Working Group consisting of multiple IEA divisions; several new and enhanced streams of work

17 Digitalization trends: Exponential growth in data Annual Internet traffic data Sources: Cisco (2015). Historical Global Internet Traffic Data 1984 through 2014; Cisco (2017). The Zettabyte Era Trends and Analysis 90% of data in the world today were created over past two years (IBM)

18 Digitalization trends: Growing connectivity Per 100 inhabitants or % households Mobile-cellular subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants) Household electricity access (%) Household internet access (%) Mobile-broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants) Sources: ITU (2017) ICT Indicators database; IEA (2016) WEO Energy Access database. Note: Developed/developing country classifications are based on the UN M49 47% of global population (3.5 b) are now using the Internet, up from only 8% (500 m) in 2001 (ITU, 2017)

19 IEA Digitalization and Energy Report (November 2017) An assessment of the implications of digitalization on the energy sector, bringing together new quantitative assessments, qualitative insights, and analysis of policy implications Current intersection of digital and energy Sector-by-sector trends and impacts - Demand (industry, transport, and buildings) - Supply (e.g., oil & gas); electricity generation performance impacts (avoided investments) - Digital technologies Longer-term, systemic impacts - Smart energy systems: connectivity in the power sector as an enabler for flexibility, demand side management, integration of variable renewables, peer-to-peer energy transactions, new business models Challenges and opportunities for policy-makers - Digital resilience, privacy, economic disruption - No-regrets policy recommendations With real-world examples highlighting policy goals that digitalization can help achieve

20 Digitalization of the power sector Current structure of electricity sector digitalization of silos Electricity system integration through digitallyenabled connectivity Digitalization especially connectivity can fundamentally re-shape the electricity sector

21 IEA