Prepare(d) for impact Global trends in solar energy

Transcription

1 Prepare(d) for impact Global trends in solar energy Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform Tekes Solar Energy Seminar Helsinki, Finland 11 February

2 Solar energy resource

3 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 3

4 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 4

5 Selected solar energy conversion options light low temperature heat (or cold) light high temperature heat electricity Concentrating Concentrating Solar Power, CSP light electricity PhotoVoltaic conversion, PV light fuels photo(electro)chemical fuel production, artificial photosynthesis light high temperature heat fuels thermochemical conversion (using CSP) 5

6 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 6

7 Solar energy contribution (electricity) Solar Energy Perspectives(IEA, ) Testing the Limits 160 EJ 7

8 Solar energy contribution (all energy) Global Energy Assessment (IIASA, ) Supply Pathway EJ Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass

9 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 9

10 Cell & module technologies Commercial Flat plate: wafer-based silicon (85%) - monocrystalline - multicrystalline (& quasi mono) Module efficiencies 14 21% City of the Sun (NL) Toyota Würth Solar HyET Solar First Solar Flat plate: thin films (14%) - silicon - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide/sulphide (CIGSS) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) Module efficiencies 5 14% FhG-ISE Abengoa/Concentrix Concentrator (<1%) - multi-junction III-V semiconductors - silicon Module efficiencies 25 30% 10

11 Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing (roll2roll, printing, etc.) low-cost materials & low material use 11

12 Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing (roll2roll, printing, etc.) low-cost materials & low material use Example: spectrum conversion using quantum dots (Univ. of Amsterdam) Also: hot carrier cells, intermediate band semiconductors, and more 12

13 Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing (roll2roll, printing, etc.) low-cost materials & low material use 13

14 Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing (roll2roll printing, etc.) low-cost materials & low material use Example: polymer solar cell (Solliance) 14

15 The value of module efficiency at system level (generation cost) 15

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18 Commercial module technologies Projected performance

19 Commercial module technologies Projected performance

20 Commercial module technologies Projected performance

21 PV technology shares History and possible future 100% 90% 80% megawatts installed Technology mergers and avanced technologies 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% gigawatts installed terawatts installed Concentrator PV; emerging technologies Thin films Wafer-based silicon 10% 0% Sources: - Photon International Solar Generation 6 - Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (JRC)

22 Building blocks: system approaches milliwatts to gigawatts grid-connected, stand-alone integrated, add-on, ground-based buildings, infrastructure, field electricity only, multifunctional (incl. PV-T) fixed orientation, sun tracking and more Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar 22

23 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 23

24 Historic market growth - global Annual installations and cumulative capacity(mwp) 100 GWp (0.1 TWp) Source: EPIA (2013) Data 2012 preliminary

25 Historic market growth - Europe Annual installations and cumulative capacity(mwp) Source: EPIA (2013) Data 2012 preliminary

26 Cumulative installed capacity by country/region (2011) Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013)

27 Renewables in Germany Contribution to electricity consumption(end use) ( 33 GWp) Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 27

28 Grid integration Germany explores(and shifts) the frontiers M. Lippert, SAFT Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 28

29 Grid integration Effect on peak electricity prices Gaëtan Masson EU PVTP GA

30 Intermezzo Solar ERA-NET joint call (see program this afternoon) Topics Innovative processes for inorganic thin-film PV High-efficiency wafer-silicon PV modules Dedicated modules for building integration Grid integration and large-scale deployment of PV Solar glass and encapsulation materials 30

31 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 31

32 PV module price-experience curve: the combined effect of volume and innovation (EPIA, June 2012)

33 PV rooftop system prices Germany ( kwp) Source: FhG ISE,

34 Dynamic grid (investment) parity Residential systems in Europe EPIA (2011)

35 Dynamic grid (investment) parity Commercial systems in Europe EPIA (2011)

36 Grid parity at utility scale (SunShot Initiative, DoE, USA, 2012) «At $0.05 $0.06 per kwh, the system cost is approximately $1 per watt»

37 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 37

38 Sustainability Energy pay-back time µc-si 38

39 Sustainability Materials aspects

40 Sustainability Materials aspects

41 Sustainability Materials aspects

42 Sustainability Public support: a key asset The horror picture Oh my God, please help our country and send us a terrific and destructive hailstorm! Courtesy Michael Marčák 42

43 Public support Missed opportunities Technology only 43

44 Public support The challenge Solar energy as seduction: technology ánddesign RidderSolar 44

45 The challenge Solar energy as seduction: technology ánddesign RidderSolar ECN s Black Beauty 45

46 Solar energy as a statement Design even above yield Columbus Quarter, Almere (NL); Han van Zwieten Architects 46

47 Content The big picture Solar energy: a versatile option electricity, heat & cold and fuels What is needed for impact? challenges and ambitions quantified Zooming in (on photovoltaics) The building blocks technology and applications The solar energy sector production, markets and hurdles Economics competing in the energy sector Sustainability beyond cost and performance Outlook we ain t seen nothing yet 47

48 Outlook We ain t seen nothing yet Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency flat plate/concentrator (%) 6 21 / / Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) Energy pay-back time (yrs) Installed capacity (TWp)

49 Outlook We ain t seen nothing yet Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency(%) 5 20 / (Si: 12 20) / (Si: 16 24) (Si: ) Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) x2 x ⅓ Energy pay-back time (yrs) Installed capacity (TWp) x

50 50 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL (photo courtesy Kuiper Compagnon