Driverless Cars and the Costs of Sprawl. October 17-19, 2018

Transcription

1 Driverless Cars and the Costs of Sprawl October 17-19, 2018 GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES

2 Technology in Transportation Automated Connected Electric Shared GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 2

3 Technology in Transportation Adoption speed affected by: Availability Cost of features Local socio-economic factors Ownership and preferences Fleet turnover Needed infrastructure upgrades Liability & other legal issues Wildcard issues social, economic, political, etc. GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

4 Transportation Technology - Electric Conditions affecting EV impact: Policy Incentives Declining vehicles cost Range and recharging limits Charging supply Competition from existing or alternative technologies Average penetration of EV in light duty national vehicle stock: 2020: 1% 2030: 7% 2040: 33% Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; OPEC World Outlook; Florida Solar Energy Center, et al GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 4

5 Transportation Technology Will people really give up their car? GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 5

6 Transportation Technology - Adoption If I asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses. - Henry Ford GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 6

7 Technology - Adoption Source: Michael Felton, The New York Times GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 7

8 Florida Activities GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 8

9 Technology in Transportation Recent Headlines Driverless Cars 1. Volkswagen GM: 2020 or sooner 2. BMW inext in Toyota NVIDIA by Ford CEO by Audi NuTonomy self driving taxi service in Singapore by Delphi and MobilEye by Uber fleet to be driverless by Source: GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 9

10 Technology Automated These changes could: Completely change the automobiles This graphic image is from and licensed under CC BY This graphic image is from Einride GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 10

11 Technology - Connected Applications Safety Critical Warnings Mobility Enhancements Environmental Benefits 55+ specific applications/uses defined by USDOT Enhanced Situational Awareness Data Gathering/ Information Exchange Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Vehicle-to-Bike/Ped/Other (V2X) Safety critical functions of the vehicle (steering/throttle) not affected (operator is in control at all times) GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 11

12 Technology Connected SIGNAL PHASE AND TIMING (SPaT) GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 12

13 Technology - Electric Bloomberg forecasts electric vehicles will account for more than half of all new light-duty vehicles by 2040 Volvo will stop developing internal combustion only engines in 2019 France made pledge to phase out all gasoline and diesel engines by 2040 Proterra has a back order of over 300 all electric busses in US right now Approximately 66% of FDOT s Work Program comes from some form of gas tax GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 13

14 Transportation Technology Economics : Decrease in Value of 1 of Fuel Tax State -17% Local Fuel Efficiency Fuel Efficiency & Inflation % GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 14

15 Technology - Shared Uber Pool now makes up over half the Uber trips in San Francisco after only 2 years FDOT study of Implications of Shared Autonomous Vehicles for Fixed Route Transit Source: Mercedes Benz (mbusa.com/mercedes/future/model/model-all_new_f015_luxury) GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 15

16 Technology - Shared Findings Society Agency Taxpayer Customer Fixed-route service is more advantageous to society even when ridership is very low SAVs may provide a way for agencies to increase overall system effectiveness As fares fall, SAVs become more advantageous to taxpayers Fixed-route transit remains a greater value to customers until Transportation Network Companies (TNC) fares drop well below today s levels GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 16

17 Bus Operating Expenses (Shared) Bus Operating Expenses 33.9% 66.1% Source: American Public Transportation Association, 2017 Salaries, Wages, Benefits Services, Materials, Other GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 17

18 Transportation Technology Why is this important Tomorrow s infrastructure will be built by partnerships Regions that aren t Smart will be the new Digital Rust Belt Adoption can help with Digital inequities No high speed internet can limit ability to find new jobs Those without cell phones or credit cards can t use TNCs Can help alleviate future congestion Impact on Land Use and Affordable Housing GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 18

19 Why should we care? Segregation/Social Mobility Transportation and Employment Access Economic Development Development Trends Cost of Infrastructure Quality of Life/Multi-Generational Community GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES

20 Transportation Technology - Land Use These changes could: Impact the designs that we develop Parking Space Size Reduced width (doors don t need to open) Varied sizes to fit specific vehicle types Parking Lot Location No spaces within 300 of building entrances? On-street parking repurposed Passenger drop off/pick up lanes at building entrance (similar to airport design) Nests and Hives Zombie Tax Development Patterns Higher density requirements may be more attainable Lobby Redesign Blue Polygons = Parking We cannot solve problems with the same thinking used when we created them. Albert Einstein. GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 20

21 Transportation Technology - Land Use POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON LAND DESIGN Before Before After After Source: Florida State University GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 21

22 Key Characteristics 5D s Destination Accessibility Design Diversity Distance to Transit Density Economics Enhanced Revenues Reduce Costs and Environmental Impacts GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 22

23 Density/Design Example Status Quo Example Community ~2 du/acre/6 sq. miles Fire Station Elementary School 1/3 1/2 2 Du/Acre 6 Sq. Miles Middle School 1/10 High School 1/10 Transit Service Threshold Level Dwelling Unit Density Threshold Minimum du/acre High du/acre Very High 8.00 du/acre GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 23

24 Density/Design Example Maximize Allowable Density 4 du/gross acre/6 sq. Miles Fire Station Elementary School Middle School High School 1 2 1/2 1/2 Transit Service Threshold Level 4 Du/Acre 6 Sq. Miles Transit Service Density Thresholds Dwelling Unit Density Threshold Minimum High Very High du/acre du/acre 8.00 du/acre GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 24

25 Density/Design Example Increase Allowable Density 8 du/gross acre/6 sq. miles Fire Station Elementary School/Parks Du/Acres 6 Sq. Miles Transit Service Density Thresholds Middle School High School 1 1 Transit Service Threshold Level Dwelling Unit Density Threshold Minimum du/acre High du/acre Very High 8.00 du/acre GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 25

26 Residential Density 2010 GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 26

27 Residential Density, 2010 Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) Source: H+T Affordability Index GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 27

28 Florida Development Rail Line Port Airport Density Florida Urban Fixed- Route Systems 1-9 peak vehicles peak vehicles peak vehicles >200 peak vehicles GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 28

29 Residential Density 2010 Rail Line Airport Port GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 29

30 67 Counties Ranking Income per Capita (2016) Taxable Value per Capita (2018) = $44,500 to $88,000 = $36,300 to $44,500 = Less than $36,300 = $93,000 to $350,000 = $55,000 to $93,000 = Less than $55,000 Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 30

31 67 Counties Ranking Sales Tax (1%) per Capita (2018) Fuel Tax (1Cent/Gallon) per Capita (2018) = $177 to $520 = $125 to $177 = Less than $177 = $13.50 to $42.00 = $6.00 to $13.50 = Less than $6.00 Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 31

32 Residential Density 2010 Source: H+T Affordability Index GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 32

33 National Trends GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 33

34 National Trends Home Price-to- Income Ratios, 2017 = 3 to 4 = 4 to 5 = 5 to 8 GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 34

35 Technology in Transportation Automated Connected Electric Shared GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

36 Technology in Transportation Summary Understand Components (ACES) CES First and then A Slower (Private Autonomous Slower) Electric Impact on Gas Tax Revenues Liability & other legal issues (Bump In The Road) Connected and Shared Significant Efforts in Florida Local socio-economic factors GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

37 Technology in Transportation Summary Understand Components (ACES) Shared Routes Can Fit in With Density (Sprawl) and Affordability Shared Routes Effectively deal with Costs Must Start Considering Infrastructure Design Needed infrastructure upgrades Autonomous Individual longer term Issue Wildcard issues social, economic, political, etc. GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

38 Technology in Transportation Summary Understand Sprawl and History Transportation Created the Original Density Need to understand Sprawl Demographics and Economics The Auto Created Ability to Sprawl GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

39 Technology in Transportation Summary Understand Sprawl and History Can Connected and Shared Autonomous Be used Effectively Supplement Efficient Shared Transport Will autonomous Accelerate Sprawl Governments Role in Answer? GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 3

40 National Trends Work in Progress Florida Urban Fixed- Route Systems 1-9 peak vehicles peak vehicles peak vehicles >200 peak vehicles Rail Line Airport Port GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 40

41 National Trends Work in Progress Florida Urban Fixed- Route Systems Rail Line Airport Port GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 41

42 National Trends Median Rent is Increasing # of Renters is Increasing 40% across major metros % Rent Burden is Increasing 24.7% in % in % in 2015 Higher Income Households are Renting GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 42

43 National Trends GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 43

44 Density/Design Example Opportunity for Public Investment Savings Public school sites Provide park amenities, reduce need for other parks Proximity to residential increases walk-ability Fire station location Critical to response time Transit Ridership Efficiencies Denisity and Design Efficiencies GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 44

45 Transportation Technology - Economics Why is this important Impact on future land use Impact on Economics and Finance Regions that aren t Smart will be the new Digital Rust Belt Impact on Affordable Housing GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 45

46 Transportation Technology - Economics Impact on Capital Costs of Shared Rides Graph showing Capital costs of Shared Rides vs. Utilization GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 46

47 Transportation Technology - Economics Impact on Operating Costs of Shared Rides Graph showing Operating costs of Shared Rides vs. Utilization GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 47

48 Transportation Technology - Economics Impact on Operating Costs of Shared Rides Pie Chart showing Labor Costs Percent of Total Costs GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 48

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51 FDOT UF Gainsvile AUTO BUS GREAT INSIGHTS. GREATER OUTCOMES 51