The role of Direct Air Capture and Carbon Dioxide Removal in Well below 2 C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM

Transcription

1 The role of Direct Air Capture and Carbon Dioxide Removal in Well below 2 C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM James Glynn 1, Niall Mac Dowell 2, Giulia Realmonte 3, Brian Ó Gallachóir 1 1.MaREI-UCC, 2. CEP-ICL, 3. Grantham-ICL Corresponding Author: ETSAP Workshop 18 th June 2018 Gothenburg, SWEDEN.

2 Research Question & Motivation Does Direct Air Capture have a role to play in achieving the 1.5 C temperature target? We explore overshoot and return to a 1.5C temperature increase by 2100, or an upper 1.5C temperature increase threshold limit for all century. We explore the uncertainties and hard constraints between carbon budget limits and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) potential from BECCS and DAC. (heat potentials & bioenergy potentials) What is the change in Primary Energy Demand and Mix from 2 C to 1.5 C with and without DAC? Can DAC & CDR reduce energy system cost increases when moving from Baseline 2 C to 1.5 C?

3 First, what is CDR? & What is DAC? CDR stands for Carbon Dioxide Removal by technological or biological means Carbon Capture, and Storage (CCS) EOR at Statoil Sleipner field since 1996, Petra Nova Coal-CCS (EOR) Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS) BIOENERGY with CCS (BECCS) ADM BECCS (bioethanol) plant Illinois, USA Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Sequestration (DACCS) (CLIMEWORKS Iceland geothermal Pilot plant) Direct Air Capture (DAC) and synthetic liquid fuels. (Carbon Engineering USA pilot plant (Keith et al. (2018))

4 Global mean Warming above pre-industrial C emissions from 2010 CDR context in SSPx-RCP2.6 IAM scenarios Cumulative MtCO 2 Paris Agreement Susta inable BIO? Paris Agreement

5 Method: ETSAP-TIAM model outline 15 Region linear programming bottom-up energy system model of IEA-ETSAP Integrated model of the entire energy system Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (2100) Demand driven by exogenous energy service demands SSP2 from OECD Env-LINKS CGE model Regional Structural detail of the economy Partial and dynamic equilibrium Price-elastic demands General Equilibrium with MACRO Minimizes the total system cost Or Maximises Consumption/Utility Hybrid General Equilibrium MSA Optimal technology selection Environmental constraints GHG, Local Air Pollution & Damages Integrated Simple Climate Model Myopic and Stochastic run options

6 Direct Air Capture (DAC) Specification American Physical Society (2011) Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals. Keith, D. W., Holmes, G., St. Angelo, D. & Heidel, K. A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere. Joule (2018). doi: /j.joule Capture Capacity 1 MtCO 2 /yr Electricity Requirement 0GJ/tCO GJ/tCO 2 Heat requirement Low Temp ~100C 8.1 GJ/tCO GJ/tCO 2 CAPEX $1,140/tCO 2 /yr ~ $160/tCO2 OPEX $200/tCO 2 - $23t/CO 2 Lifespan years

7 Scenarios [1] Base Drivers are calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS. Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households (still need to fix AEEI & DrvESD coeff) All Climate Policy runs are fixed to the Base run to Combinations of the following 2 C, and 1.5 C temperature limits with Climate Model controlling for Non- CO 2 GHGs and Exoforcing Carbon Budgets applied from GtCO 2 2 C 600GtCO 2, 400GtCO 2, 200GtCO C Constraints on CO 2 sequestration sinks limits Full potential (11PtCO2), 1660GtCO2 total horizon, 30GtCO2/yr, linear growth to 30GtCO2/yr by 2100, 10GtCO2/yr, Growth to 10GtCO2/yr Direct Air Capture Investment Costs $1,140/tCO 2 - $160/tCO 2 Fixed operation and Maintenance Costs - $42/tCO 2 - $23/tCO 2 ELC & HET or Gas only, or Gas & Elec

8 Scenarios [2] Scenario Code Name Description Carbon Budget ( ) DAC Costs BASE_SSP2_11p Reference base case n/a Not available 2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660 2C temperature change limit, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration 1000GtCO 2 2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DAC Same as above with DAC 1000GtCO 2 InvCost $2900/tCO 2 VAROM $200/tCO 2 2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DACloCst Same as above with Low Cost DAC 1000GtCO 2 InvCost $100/tCO 2 VAROM $50/tCO 2 15C_CM21_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC 15C_CM21_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660_DACl ocst 15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC 15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660DACl ocst Overshoot and return to 1.5C by 2100, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with DAC an option Same as above with Low Cost DAC an option Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with DAC an option Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling, with 1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration, with Low Cost DAC 600GtCO 2 InvCost $2900/tCO 2 VAROM $200/tCO 2 400GtCO 2 InvCost $100/tCO 2 VAROM $50/tCO 2 600GtCO 2 InvCost $2900/tCO 2 VAROM $200/tCO 2 400GtCO 2 InvCost $100/tCO 2 VAROM $50/tCO 2

9 Primary Energy (ExaJoules) Electricity Generation (Exajoules) BASE Scenario Base calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS. Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households No Climate control policies Fossil fuel dominates Primary energy, with a growing share of renewables in Elec Generation Primary Energy (EJ) Electricity Generation (EJ) Renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Oil Coal Geo, Tidal and Wave Solar Thermal Solar PV Wind Hydro Nuclear CH4 Options Biomass Gas and Oil 200 Coal

10 GtCO2 Exajoules DAC Penetration from 2C to 1.5C scenarios DAC is deployed when Low Cost DAC is available at <$250/tCO2 Medium-term ( ) CO2 capture of MtCO2/yr for 1.5C threshold Long Term Capture up to 1.6GtCO2/yr with up to 12 EJ in energy input 1.8 CO2 Captured with Direct Air Capture (GtCO2) 12 DAC Energy Input Requirements (EJ) C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst No 1.5C temperature Overshoot allowed C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAChilocst 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat

11 Fossil Fuel and Industry CO2 emissions - (GtCO2) Marginal Abatement Cost of CO2 ($/tco2) 2C and 1.5C emissions with & without DAC Rapid near term CO 2 emissions reductions required to remain below a 1.5C threshold. Near term deployment of CDR in the form of DAC and BECC forces abatement costs above $200/tCO2 by 2030 Overshoot and return to 1.5C follows an accelerated mitigation pathway when compared to 2C. 100 Fossil Fuel and Industry CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) 3500 Marginal Abatement Cost of CO2 ($/tco2) 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst BASE_SSP2_11p

12 Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions from 2C (GtCO ) Difference in cumulative CDR Low Cost DAC cumulative Capture of CO 2 ranges from 11 GtCO2 in the 2C case, 17GtCO 2 for the 1.5C threshold case 25GtCO 2 in the overshoot and return to 1.5C case. The 1.5C threshold scenario with Low Cost DAC captures and additional 49GtCO2 compared to the without DAC scenario The 1.5C threshold scenario with DAC has 168GtCO 2 less CDR than the 2C case. Coal consumption in electricity is replaced is phased out more rapidly in this case C 1.5C C UP 2C 1.5C C UP Difference with and without Low Cost DAC Difference in Total CDR Difference from a Low Cost DAC to 2C without DAC Difference in Direct Air Capture

13 Key Messages Staying below a 1.5 C ceiling seems unlikely with current demand outlook understanding and technology specifications, even with optimistic CDR costs in the form of Direct Air Capture. Negative Emissions technologies and CDR seem to be required to stay well below 2C. While DAC may have a near term CDR role to play, BECCS which also provides energy service requirements (biofuel & electricity), captures and removes more CO2 in our scenario analysis. However, it is likely that there are heat & electricity constraints on DAC deployment in TIAM. Future Work with MaREI-UCC, Centre for environmental Policy and Grantham at Imperial College London The costs of achieving ambitious decarbonisation scenarios are highly sensitive to the volume of CO 2 removal & Storage Carbon Capture and Storage, and other negative emissions technologies require accelerated development as well as likely demand side measures. Some regions may have significantly reduced abatement costs due to their ability to sequester CO 2 in conjunction with considerable renewables potentials and large geological storage for BECCs & CDR.

14 ETSAP-TIAM waste HET sources for DAC? Detailed Bottom Up energy System Model From Energy Reserves, extraction, transformation, trade, renewable energy potentials, electricity generation, conversion to end use fuels, multiple energy service demands per sector. Integrated Climate Module Integrated Macroeconomic model for price demand general equilibrium. Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Industrial Service Composition OI**** GA**** CO**** CH 4 options BIO*** WIN SOL GEO TDL HYD NUC I*** Extraction IND*** Industrial Tech. Carbon capture Electricity Fuels INDELC INDELC IS** ELC*** Trade Upstream Fuels CO2 Carbon sequestration Electricity Cogeneration Heat Auto Production Cogeneration Secondary Transformation ELC ELC HET Trade Terrestrial sequestration AGR*** Agriculture Tech. BIO*** Hydrogen production and distribution OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping SYNH2 ELC Low Temp HET BIO*** Waste Heat? COM*** Commercial Tech. RES*** Residential Tech. OIL*** GAS*** COA*** End Use Fuels TRA*** Transport Tech. I** (6) N 2 O options A** (1) C** (8) R** (11) T** (16) CH 4 options CH 4 options Demands Non-energy sectors (CH 4 ) Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater

15 Technology Analyzed Next Steps - DAC Energy Input References Electricity [GJ/ton] Heat [GJ/ton] DAC 1 Strong Base Sorbents APS; Mazzotti, 2012 [1] Keith, 2013 and 2018 [2] Carbon Engineering 1.8 (centralized elec) 8.1 (Natural Gas) DAC2 Solid Adsorbents Amine-based Goeppert, 2012 Climeworks [3] Global Thermostat [4] 1.1 (centralized elec) 7.2 (Waste Heat) DAC21 Solid Adsorbents Amine-based Goeppert, 2012 Climeworks [3] Global Thermostat [4] 1.1 (centralized elec) 7.2 (low-t heat)

16 Energy and Cost Assumptions Next Steps - DAC Energy Input Cost Estimates [$/ton] Transport Cost Electricity [GJ/ton] Heat [GJ/ton] Investment O&M (no energy) [$/ton] DAC 1 Strong Base Sorbents HIGH LOW [1] 160 [2] 76 [1] 60 [2] 1-10 DAC2 Solid Adsorbents Amine-based HIGH LOW [3] [3] 10 DAC21 Solid Adsorbents Amine-based HIGH LOW [3] [3] 1-10

17 Scenarios Next Steps - DAC Energy Input Cost Estimates Transport Cost HIGH LOW HIGH LOW BASE X constant X 10 Low Cost X constant X 10 Low Energy Exogenous Cost Reduction X constant 6% annual cost reduction X 10 X 10 Low Transport X constant X 1

18 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) 3. Low Energy 4. Low Transport Cost 5. BASE 1. Exogenous Cost Red 2. Low Cost (constant) Energy Need [EJ/yr] CO2 Captured [Gt/yr] Next Steps - DAC Energy Requirements for DAC [EJ/yr] DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC Electricity Heat CO2 captured [Gt/yr]

19 Next Steps - DAC CO2 Captured [Gt/yr] DAC1 1. Exogenous Cost Red DAC1 2. Low Cost (constant) DAC1 3. Low Energy DAC1 4. Low Transport Cost DAC1 5. BASE (High Cost - constant) DAC2 1. Exogenous Cost Red DAC2 2. Low Cost (constant) DAC2 3. Low Energy DAC2 4. Low Transport Cost DAC2 5. BASE (High Cost - constant) DAC21 1. Exogenous Cost Red DAC21 2. Low Cost (constant) DAC21 3. Low Energy DAC21 4. Low Transport Cost DAC21 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)

20 Thank You QUESTIONS?

21 Unlocking the potential of our marine and renewable energy resources through the power of research and innovation

22 Environmental Research Institute Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil Energy Policy and Modelling Group

23 Q&A Backup Slides

24 Scenario Temperature profiles

25 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways drivers

26 With Low Cost DAC Exajoules Without DAC Exajoules 2C & 1.5C Electricity Generation w/wo DAC Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave 180 Solar Thermal Solar PV Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass CCS Biomass CH4 Options Gas CCS Gas and Oil 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600 Coal Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave Solar Thermal Solar PV Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass CCS Biomass CH4 Options Gas CCS Gas and Oil 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst Coal

27 With Low Cost DAC Primary Energy (Exajoules) Without DAC Primary Energy (Exajoules) 2C & 1.5C Primary Energy Supply w/wo DAC Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C Renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Oil Coal 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600 Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C-DAC low Cost Renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Oil Coal 2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst