Easy Transition to Renewables

Transcription

1 Easy Transition to Renewables Presentation to the Australian Institute of Energy Ben Rose

2 WHY DOES THE WORLD NEED CLEAN ENERGY NOW?

3 We are not doing enough to met our Paris commitments

4 What do voters think about Renewable Energy? Essential poll, February % of the sample think the federal government is not doing enough to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy 65% of voters approved of Labor s target of 50% renewable electricity by 2030.

5 Grid-scale electricity modelling with the POWERBALANCE software

6 The job of POWERBALANCE is to ensure that enough energy is provided from selected sources to match energy demand for every hour of a year. 1. Uses programmed Excel spreadsheets 2. Step-wise reduction of power shortfalls, working left to right across columns of 8760 hours (1 year s hourly shortfalls) 3. Quantifies and costs the renewable energy and dispatchable energy generation required to: Balance power with load for 8760 hours of a year. 4. Calculates RE Scenario LCoE and CO2 emissions instantly

7 Wind and solar electricity generation data from a particular year on the SWIS is copied from SIREN and pasted into POWERBALANCE

8 2 PB data 1 Siren 8760 hr 3 Powerbalance

9 Load for modelled year (MW) (2014); Total load (MWh) Wind power capacity SIREN modelled (MW) Fixed Utility PV power cap. (EF=26%). SIREN modelled (MW) RT PV (assume = fixed PV = 26%%) TOTAL SIREN Total RE; Load Multiplier; Load adjusted (MW) (2015) Wind Adjusted power capacity (MW) Rooftop PV AdJusted power capacity (MW) (CF=19%) Equiv. single axis tracking PV power cap.(ef = 31%). (MW) ,511,134-23,324,029 SIREN scenario: W6PV3 Cost adjustment for transmission losses = ,451,736 3,057,704 7,506,700 * $1,343,958,198 $188,379,055 $531,843,675 $77 $ * Note: Cost adjustment for transmission losses = Percent CO2 emissons 8.9% Percent RE 90.1% % OCGT gas fuelled 9.9% % RE through PHS storage 2.0% % RE through BM battery 6.5% Surplus generation MWh 38.5% Annual load MWh 23,324,029 Weighted Average LCOE $ By iteration, the optimal energy generation mix is determined based on lowest cost 14

10 Works in Dispatch Order, Subtracting available energy from energy demand Non-dispatchable power Operator can ramp it down but not up! Renewable Energy Capital intensive but low cost energy 1. Wind 2. PV 3. CST / MS storage Dispatchable power Operator can ramp it up and down. Storage Capital intensive, immediate response, very flexible med high cost (using cheap surplus RE) Steam thermal Coal and gas low energy cost, generally can t ramp down to zero Fuelled peaking Low cap.cost, flexible, high energy cost 4. Battery storage 5. Pumped hydro storage 6. Fast ramping OCGT s 7. DSM 15

11 logical formulae: = if(logical test), value if true, value if false) =IF(SUM(O33,N34)>$O$3,IF(SUM(O33,N34)<$P$4,SUM(O33,N 34),$P$4),$O$3) =IF(O33>O34,O33-O34,0) Hourly shortfall/ surplus after wind and PV generation Potential battery rech./ disch, adjusted for efficiency and Behind meter battery (BMB) storage Generation through battery storage Hourly Shortfall/ surplus 2 after reductions from battery , , , , , , , ,

12 Powerbalance works progressively reducing load to zero. Hour Demand (load) Add wind Add rooftop PV Add utility tracking PV Add CST/ MS Add battery Add PHS storage storage Add OCGT gas Shortfall after RE generation Shortfall after all generation and storage Demand Side Management Shortfall Balance And so on for 8760 hours of the year

13 Modelling the transition to 85% renewable energy

14 85% renewable energy scenario SIREN map

15 85% scenario - capacities Wind PV rooftop PV utility tracking OCGT Demand Side Management Storage - Battery / PHS 5470 MW 1996 MW 1920 MW 2600 MWh 1000 MW 6000 MWh

16 The cost of wind generation in Australia in 2017 is now as low as $69 / MWh

17 The cost of utility-scale single axis tracking PV has more than halved in a few years to as low as $40/MWh. Rooftop rooftop solar PV prices continue to fall to below $60/MWh

18 What data have we used? Our cost assumptions Generation cost ($/MWh) Capacity factor % Cost of capital (WACC) Wind $75 38% 7.1% PV, rooftop $60 19% 7.1% PV, fixed, utility $69 31% 7.1% Pumped hydro storage n/a Behind meter Battery n/a n/a n/a New Coal $100 22% 14.9% gas CCGT $106 83% 8.1% References Recent Australian Power Purchase Agreements cited in Renew Economy, Capital cost derived from Black and Veatch, 2012 SEN predicted capex $350/kWh installed in 2025 gas OCGT (frame) $217 10% 8.1% Gas OCGT (Aeroderivative) New coal (supercritical SWIS scale) $239 10% 8.1% $118 83% 14.9% Coal CCS retrofit (SWIS) $110 83% 14.9% Capex, fixed and variable O&M costs - BREE 2014 est. for 2025 New coal CCS $180 83% 14.9% Nuclear (SMR) $197 83% 14.9%

19 How electricity generation is costed C Ed = P C fa + E g C v C Ed = P C fa + E g C v Where: C Ed = Cost of electricity generated P = Rated power capacity C fa = Fixed annual cost per unit of capacity E g = Electricity generated C v = Variable costs All renewable generation, including surplus is costed 24

20 >85% RE Scenario Modelled using 2014 SWIS demand, wind and solar data from SIREN Month of January LEGEND Yellow Direct wind and solar energy (RE) Dark pink Fast ramping gas turbine (OCGT) Purple RE through battery storage Blue RE through pumped hydro storage 25

21 >85% RE Scenario Modelled using 2014 SWIS demand, wind and solar data from SIREN Month of July LEGEND Yellow Direct wind and solar energy (RE) Dark pink Fast ramping gas turbine (OCGT) Purple RE through battery storage Blue RE through pumped hydro storage 26

22 Open Cycle Gas Turbines Provide 15% of energy in 85% RE scenario; 5% in 100% RE scenarios Ramp from cold start to full load in 6 13 minutes. Energy cost $220 - $250 / MWh Dual fuelled fuels can use gas or liquid fuels (including diesel or bio-liquids). Located in Metro and industrial areas. 1 in 6 equipped to run as synchronous compensators.

23 SWIS transition - generation by energy source Existing 2017 Approx. 85% renewable energy (2030) LEGEND Blue Wind Yellow Solar PV Dark pink Gas OCGT Light pink Gas CCGT Grey Coal Purple Storage

24 Replace old coal on the SWIS with Wind and PV Retain existing gas generation 5-fold benefits: 1. CO2 emissions down by > 2.1 tonnes per person (5.5 million tonnes) ,000 new construction / manufacturing jobs. 3. Negligible (if any) increase in cost of electricity. 4. No increase in Government debt. Avoids cost of RET and refurbishment of old coal. 5. $7 billion of new private investment in WA

25 Powerbalance modelling can provide information to help answer crucial questions. For example: When is the optimal time to close coal and gas steam thermal (so-called base load) generation?

26 55% RE with 986 MW of steam thermal generation (Blue waters 434 MW plus 552 MW of CCGT plus 1900 MW OCGT). Unnecessary steam thermal generation is dark grey in lower graph.

27 55% RE with 6000 MWh battery / PHS with optimal fuelled standby generation MW OCGT. With the inflexible steam thermal removed, fuelled generation is reduced

28 Coal closure at 50% RE penetration means that >5% of total demand is supplied by unnecessary steam thermal generation i.e. this amount of RE has to be curtailed

29 Coal closure at 40% instead of 50% RE penetration reduces unnecessary fuelled generation and CO2 emissions by 80%

30 Number of high rate ramp-ups increases to > 160 per year at 50% RE penetration

31 Number of large coal/ base-load ramp-ups reduced from 160 to 60 by closing coal before 40% instead of 50% RE

32 The cost-optimal strategy: Close all coal before 40% RE penetration

33 Refurbishment of Muja CD and keeping coal generating until 50% RE penetration would likely cost more. New clean coal is even more expensive.

34 What does this modelling indicate? 1. Close all coal generation before 40% renewable generation 2. The phase-out of coal needs to be rapid because: Frequent deep ramping of coal thermal over long periods -> increased maintenance costs. Coal generally cannot ramp down below 50% Coal generally cannot switch off. Instead RE that (already costed in this model) will have to switch off during sunny, windy days Rapid transition to RE with fast ramping gas and storage is most economic option for SWIS

35 Stage 1: Replace old coal with new wind and solar PV * > $7 billion in new private investment in WA * 10,000 NEW JOBS

36 Jobs created with the 85% renewable energy on the SWIS by 2030 scenario. Modelling by Sustainable Energy Now, Sept 2017

37 Jobs Assumptions Only direct jobs in WA are modelled No jobs multiplier has been applied Conservative assumptions, as jobs intensity has come down over the past 10 years of studies Figures from most recent and detailed studies available were applied.

38 85% renewables on SWIS is cost effective, reliable and achievable by 2030 So where do we start? The first step from 13% to 30% will be EASY Already have enough existing fast ramping gas turbine capacity and plenty of gas! Close Muja CD early do not refurbish: it is fully paid off - Avoid risk of maintenance cost blow-outs and plant failures No increase in Government debt Negligible (if any) increase in cost of electricity

39 Check out SEN s website 44