LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Transcription

1 LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE T.D. O Rourke Thomas R. Briggs Professor of Engineering Cornell University

2 TOPICS Critical Infrastructure and Resilience Case Histories Christchurch San Francisco Los Angeles New York City Key Issues

3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: EVOLVING CONCEPT 1980s: Emphasis on Public Sector (e.g., highways, bridges, airports, public transit, airports, & solid/hazardous waste facilities) After 911: Expansion to 17 Sectors in US National Infrastructure Protection Plan

4 NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION PLAN (2006) Agriculture/food Defense industries Energy systems Public health Nat l monuments Banking/finance Drinking water Chemical facilities Commercial Dams Emergency services Nuclear power Information tech Telecom systems Postal/shipping Transportation Government

5 LIFELINE SYSTEMS Electric Power Gas and Liquid Fuels Levee and Flood Protection Telecommunications Transportation Wastewater Facilities Water Supply

6 INSTITUTIONAL INTERDEPENDENCIES Water Supply Electric Power Telecom Transportation Gas/Liquid Fuels Waste Disposal

7 RESILIENCE Governmental Policies, Community Planning, Infrastructure Management Rockefeller Fndn Review (2011) Engineering Resilience Systems Resilience Complex Adaptive Resilience

8 DARFIELD & CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKES Darfield EQ Christchurch EQ

9 DARFIELD & CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKES 2010 Darfield Earthquake 7.0 Mw No deaths, ~ $ 4 billion losses 2011 Christchurch Earthquake 6.1 Mw Hundreds dead, Christchurch CBD destroyed Combined earthquake losses > $20 billion losses, potentially > 15-20% GDP

10 CHRISTCHURCH LIQUEFACTION Cubrinovski (2011)

11 CHRISTCHURCH GAS DISTRIBUTION

12 Gas Distribution System Areas of Severe Liquefaction

13 GAS SYSTEM INTERDEPENDENCIES Telecommunications Communication during emergency response Transportation System LPG delivery at Port and by truck/train Electric Power Heated water to vaporize LPG Water Supply Water for LPG vaporizer Sprinkler system for fire protection

14 LESSONS ABOUT RESILIENCE Engineering Resilience HDPE pipelines with fusion welds System Resilience Dispersion & redundancy of key facilities Gas storage within system Contracts for emergency works Adaptive Resilience Bicycles not trucks in heavy traffic Isolation of CBD from gas

15 BURWOOD (HORSESHOE LAKE) Severe Liquefaction Moderate Liquefaction Replaced Damaged AC and PVC Piping After Darfield EQ with HDPE Pipelines No HDPE Pipelines Damaged After Darfield EQ

16 NEW ZEALAND INSURANCE Prior to EQs, Residential Building Insurance Provided by National Government After EQs, Reinsurance Industry Reluctant to Securitize Risk Four-fold Increase in Insurance Rates, with More Projected

17 LAND USE POLICY (Christchurch EQ Recovery Authority) Land Repair Prolonged & Uneconomic As of 27 June 11 Christchurch infrastructure uninsurable

18 San Francisco 120 km2 5 km N 200 km

19 0 1 km N Zones of Soil Liquefaction Zones of Soil Liquefaction = Zone of liquefaction induced deformation

20 1906 SAN FRANCISCO PIPELINES >300 Breaks in Distribution Network Ruptured Trunk Lines at Locations of Liquefaction (Especially Along Mission Creek) 23,200 Severed Service Connections

21 AUXILIARY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM (AWSS)

22 WATER SUPPLY & FIRE MODELING NSF-supported Research AWSS Hydraulic Model (Cornell) Fire Model (EQE) Bond Measure Passed to Upgrade AWSS Portable Water Supply System (PWSS)

23 Marina Foot of Market 0 1 km South of Market Mission Creek AWSS Zone of liquefaction induced deformation 1989 LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE

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25 Marina Foot of Market MARINA 0 1 km South of Market Mission Creek Zone of liquefaction induced deformation 1989 LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE

26 1989 LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE

27 FIRE

28 FIRE

29 LESSONS ABOUT SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE 1986 Bond Issue for AWSS Upgrade 2010 Bond Issue for AWSS Upgrade For 24 Years Depended on the Stewardship of a Handful of Individuals Transfer from Fire Department to Public Utilities Commission Need to Harmonize Institutional Cultures

30 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles N 200 km 40 km 4.0 Million Customers 12,000 km Pipelines

31 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM Simulates 12,000 km pipelines & facilities Comprehensive seismic & geohazards Special software for damaged hydraulic network analysis System risk & reliability Water & electric interaction Economic/social impacts

32 MULTI-MODAL SIMULATION Simulation for Ground Failure, Accidents, Human Threats Probabilistic Simulation for System-wide Seismic Wave Effects Combined Simulation for Permanent Ground Deformation & Seismic Wave Effects

33 SHAKEOUT SCENARIO 7.8 Mw EQ on San Andreas Fault Largest US Civil Defense Exercise 5.4 Million Participants

34 SYSTEM SERVICEABILITY INDEX SSI is the ratio of water available at all system nodes after the EQ to water available before the EQ

35 14.8 M m3 Encino Reservoir LA Reservoir 13.6 M m3 Stone Canyon Reservoir Hollywood Reservoir 5.4 M m M m3 Disinfectant By-Products

36 10 km N Highest Population Density

37 LESSONS ABOUT RESILIENCE Impact of Environmental Regulations on System Operations Community Impact on System Operations Advanced Simulations of Key Importance for System and Adaptive Resilience Emergency Response Strategy for Major Earthquakes

38 NEW YORK CITY 800 sq km 10 km

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40 NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY Delaware Aqueduct

41 NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY 18 Reservoirs & 3 Controlled Lakes > 5000 km2 of Watershed 1.2 Billion gallons/day Delaware Aqueduct Catskill Aqueduct

42 LESSONS ABOUT SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE Water Supply is the Most Critical Infrastructure for NYC 3 rd NYC Water Tunnel under Construction from Requires 50 Years of Persistent Political and Economic Support Long Term Commitment under Highly Variable and Changing Conditions

43 LEADERSHIP & PUBLIC OUTREACH

44 KEY ISSUES Improve Concepts of Critical Infrastructure Institutional Cultures and Interdependencies Critically Important for Resilience & Sustainability Need to Account for Socio-Political Processes Advanced Simulations of Key Importance for System and Adaptive Resilience

45 KEY ISSUES Insurance Critical for Infrastructure Sustainability Political Leadership Essential Backstop All Models with Case Histories or Observations of Actual System Performance; Be Involved in Real Projects and Real Organizations