Linking Marine and Terrestrial Models. Jodie Toft, the CAMEO and Marine NatCap teams

Transcription

1 Linking Marine and Terrestrial Models Jodie Toft, the CAMEO and Marine NatCap teams

2 The CAMEO project: Puget Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Galveston Bay

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4 When do land-based activities affect the success of marine resource management?

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6 Puget Sound 1. Hood Canal 2. Whidbey Basin

7 Chesapeake 1. Rappahannock 2. Eastern Shore

8 Galveston All 1 site, or E. Bay, W. Bay, Trinity R.?

9 freshwater oysters water quality Simple models for application in the 3 systems? crab and fish

10 InVEST Models & Linkages Crop Pollination Water Purification Marine Water Quality Aquaculture Renewable Energy Managed Timber Production Reservoir Hydropower Production Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity Coastal Vulnerability Aesthetic Quality Sediment Retention Groundwater Recharge Coastal Protection Recreation Agricultural Production Flood Risk Mitigation Fisheries (including recreational) Overlap Analysis Carbon Storage & Sequestration (Blue Carbon) Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 0 Model coming soon! Optional model linkage, no sequencing Required/optional model linkage, sequencing needed

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12 freshwater

13 HOOD CANAL

14 Subwatersheds and Land Use/Land Cover

15 Conceptual Diagram Precipitation Transpiration Evaporation Water Model Yield - Consumption = Supply Nutrient Model Water Yield + Nutrient Loading & Export = Nutrient Load Rain Soil D e pth Land Cover & Land Use Root Depth Nutrient Uptake Nutrient Export Plant Water Availability Water Yield Water Consumption Drinking Water Irrigation Industrial Withdrawal OUTPUT Water Supply Nutrient Load Ground Water Recharge

16 Discharge (m 3 /yr)

17 Total Nitrogen Export kg/yr kg/ha/yr

18 freshwater water quality KEY FEATURES Filtration capacity of nearshore habitats Disaggregating outputs: annual daily Summarizing outputs: pixels polygons

19 Physical transport model

20 2-Layer Box Model, 6 Regions Based on Babson et al. (2006), but rewritten in MATLAB for more general use 6 boxes in HC, 7 rivers IC s: from MoSSea Physical transport model BC s: from ADM001 DoE station

21 BASELINE Water Quality Model 6,000,000 5,000,000 discharge 4,000,000 3,000, ,000,000 1,000, surface bottom temperature Box surface bottom Box NO Box

22 Biogeochemical Cycling Coming soon! NPZDO modeling: Oxygen is added in proportional to nutrient uptake (Banas et al. 2009) or see:

23 Pacific oysters

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25 Pacific Oyster Production Model $: Commercial and Recreational

26 oyster (pounds) Pacific oyster production & harvest BASELINE 2030 INCREASE ALL 25% DECREASE ALL 25% Box

27 Dungeness crab

28 Inputs Spatial structure of the population Fisheries Catch, harvest rates/strategies Outputs Numbers of crab harvested Life history details Age-structure, survival rates, fecundity, spawner/recruit, immigration rates Economics Price-per-pound, fixed & variable costs Commercial and Recreational Value of harvest

29 Dungeness crab production & harvest

30 Dungeness crab production & harvest Box 3 Ricker curve = (b/2)ne -an Infertile Or Dead Female Age 1 Female Age 2 Female Age 3 Female Age 4 Cannibalism Eggs S larval S yoy S adult S adult S adult Cannibalism Male Age 1 Male Age 2 Male Age 3 Male Age 4 (1-h)S harvest h harvest % Harvest Higgins et al Science

31 LINKING TO THE WATER QUALITY MODEL S YOY Salinity (ppt) Moloney et al Temperature (C)

32 LINKING TO THE WATER QUALITY MODEL S YOY Salinity (ppt) Moloney et al Temperature (C)

33 Recreational Dungeness crab Non-market Valuation 1. Expected catch equation (Poisson regression). Links crab abundance and fishers characteristics to expected catch per trip. 2. Travel cost random utility maximization model. Estimates the implicit price of expected catch. 3. Measuring the consumer surplus. Monetizing the economic gains and losses from changes in crab abundance under status quo, managed growth and unconstrained growth scenarios. The next slide shows the results from steps one and two, and the slide after presents estimated economic gains and losses. McConnell, Strand and Blake-Hedges 1995 Marine Resource Economics.

34 THE SCENARIOS: components of change Climate: Precipitation Land use: upland Land use: estuarine Climate: SST

35 Sensitivity analyses Terrestrial: How much do we need to change (e.g., +20%?, +100%?) inputs (discharge, nutrients) to the nearshore before we see a change in crab and oyster? Marine: How do those changes compare to results with no change on land, but with a change to sea surface temperature (or loss of nearshore habitat)? Marine management: what implications do our findings from 1. and 2. have for the type and degree of management actions we might have to take for our marine resources? C in CAMEO: How do patterns differ across sites/geographies?

36 THE SCENARIOS CURRENT FUTURE PRECIPITATION 2 LAND USE Yellow = developed Green = undeveloped Managed growth 1 Status quo 1 Uncontrolled growth 1 Sources: 1. Envision; 2. Climate Wizard, average of 5 GCMs under IPCC emissions scenario A2 (High)

37 freshwater water quality Pacific oysters Dungeness crab

38 Eastern oysters Blue crab Striped bass Pacific oysters Dungeness crab Pacific salmon (sps TBD) Eastern oysters Blue crab Red drum

39 Discussion How would these types of linked models be useful in work that you are involved with? What capabilities do you consider key to have when linking terrestrial and marine models?

40 InVEST Models & Linkages Crop Pollination Water Purification Marine Water Quality Aquaculture Renewable Energy Managed Timber Production Reservoir Hydropower Production Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity Coastal Vulnerability Aesthetic Quality Sediment Retention Groundwater Recharge Coastal Protection Recreation Agricultural Production Flood Risk Mitigation Fisheries (including recreational) Overlap Analysis Carbon Storage & Sequestration (Blue Carbon) Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 0 Model coming soon! Optional model linkage, no sequencing Required/optional model linkage, sequencing needed

41 Questions?