Myths, Realities and Needs about Biofuels

Transcription

1 Myths, Realities and Needs about Biofuels Olivier Dubois, FAO EC Conference: The role of low carbon fuels in decarbonising transport: the emerging consensus from international initiatives, Brussels, April, 2018

2 Generic Myths Sweeping statements on biofuel sustainability - Food crop feedstock always bad / Energy crops and residues always good - Not that simple! Simple solutions to reconcile food and fuels are available - You must be joking!

3 Myth #1 - Food-based feedstocks always bad?? Not necessarily the case (e.g. sugarcane ethanol in Brazil, outgrower palm oil in Indonesia) Flex crops (that produce both food and fuel) do not compete with food if fuel adds to food Possible but challenging through: Yield increase (e.g. sugarcane in Brazil) Substitution of export crops (e.g.: cassava ethanol study in Tanzania) Integrated food-energy systems (IFES) Outgrower schemes

4 Myths #2 - Feedstocks from Residues Panacea?? Agricultural/wood/fisheries by-products/ residues becoming : commodities as increasingly used (IEA predicts residues 25-30% of biofuel feedstock energy by 2050) Use of by-products allows for 10-30% reduction in land needs BUT Watch out for: competing use of agricultural residues (soil management feed bioenergy) Cheapest fertiliser and soil protection for small-scale farmers Often more than 40% animal feed in developing countries Handling costs!

5 Myth #3 - Energy crops Silver bullet?? Less DIRECT competition with food security BUT Less edible by - products as the whole plant is used for bioenergy Possible negative environment + ILUC effects (e.g. large scale monocropping plantations replacing forests) Possible INDIRECT competition with food security Regarding land use Regarding the use of agricultural residues (soil, feed, energy) No flexibility between food and energy markets Not yet ready on large scale and for some more time

6 2G biofuels are expensive e.g. ethanol

7 Myth #4: ILUC risk is new and does not exist with 2G Biofuels ILUC risk is not new It concerns all biomass production that entails land use change Hence ALL biofuels including 2G Biofuels

8 Global Realities Sustainable biofuel production is complex One should embrace this complexity rather than oversimplifying things by relying only on modelling and global studies The good news is that there is enough evidence, knowledge and tools to move from food versus fuel and 1G versus 2G to food and fuel and 1G and 2G biofuels

9 1 st Set of Specific Realities Land issues Not so much about How much land most people think there is enough land for food and fuel production Biofuels currently use less than 5% of all arable land Percentage could rise to 5-10% in the next decades. It depends on many factors (e.g. intensification, use of by products) Often more about Whose and What Land

10 WHOSE land Source: Dubois, 2008 Land belongs to Size of bionergy production unit Large Small/community type Company (private or public) A C Small producer or community Outgrower schemes B D

11 WHAT land No go areas (high carbon, high biodiversity) Relatively easy to define; more difficult to enforce Best bet areas Often so-called degraded/marginal/abandoned land: But controversial/dynamic concepts that need to be locally defined + What is more Interesting for investors!?

12 The ILUC issue ILUC risk exist for Land-based bioproducts Models to assess the ILUC risks oversimplify the reality There are ways to reduce the ILUC risk, so more constructive to focus on these

13 Key Messages on Land Realities Often more about Whose and What Land A lot to do with land and natural resources governance Voluntary guidelines on sustainable tenure governance of land, forests and fisheries exist ILUC risk for ALL Biofuels there are ways to minimise it

14 2 nd Set of Specific Realities - Food prices Based on global studies biofuels cause 3 to 75% increase on international food prices - Jury out for ever! + Need to assess price transmission from commodity to food and from international to national and local levels Price changes impact different people in different ways

15 Impacts will vary for net sellers and net buyers of food 100% 90% 80% Smallholders net sellers Smallholders self-sufficient Smallholders net buyers Rural landless (buyers) Urban (buyers) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bolivia Ethiopia Bangladesh Zambia Madagascar Vietnam Cambodia Source: World Bank 2007

16 Key Messages on Food Price Realities There is a link BUT Biofuels are one amongst many other factors that influence food prices Need to look at the link at country and household levels - where it matters!

17 Realities about 1G/2G Biofuels A lot can be learned about the challenges and opportunities of 1G biofuels that is useful for 2G biofuels There are several examples of technological and financial synergies between 1G and 2G biofuels It will take quite some time before 2G biofuels have a meaningful impact on energy use and climate change

18 Realities about 1G/2G Biofuels There are several examples of technological and financial synergies between 1 st G and 2 nd G biofuels Therefore 2 nd G biofuels should be developed in parallel with 1 st G biofuels The key issue is not about choosing between 1 st or 2 nd G biofuels, but on how to make biofuels sustainable, and

19 Generic Needs Move Away from Myths and Sweeping Statements Embrace the complexities of sustainable biofuels Be constructive and rigourous by using available tools to get things right through an integrated, contextualized and evidence-based approach

20 Example: FAO s Sustainable Bioenergy Support Package An in-depth understanding of the situation and related opportunities and risks as well as synergies and trade-offs; Implementation of good practices by investors/producers in order to reduce risks and increase opportunities; An enabling policy and institutional environment to promote the implementation of good practices; Appropriate monitoring and evaluation of impacts and performance of good practices and policy responses

21 Typology of FAO Tools for Sustainable Bioenergy Before project implementation: Screening and risk prevention After project implementation: Assessment and monitoring Local Impact BEFS Operator Level Tool IFES analytical framework Regional/ National impact BEFS Rapid Appraisal GBEP indicators

22 Needs on Feedstock Matters One should be agnostic not dogmatic about types of feedstock This is because what matters is the way they are managed for food and non-food purposes Watch out on competition between different uses of feedstocks

23 Needs on 1G/2G Biofuels 2G biofuels should be developed in parallel with 1G biofuels The key issue is not about choosing between 1G or 2G biofuels, but on how to make biofuels sustainable, and Together, we have the means to do it if we embrace the challenges of sustainable biofuels in a science and reality-based way

24 FAO s Key Messages on Biofuels Sustainability of biofuels is context specific. Therefore its assessment must be based on reality not models and global studies Tools and knowledge are now available to help governments and operators reduce risks and enhance opportunities of biofuel development Per se biofuels are neither good nor bad. What matters is the way they are managed Biofuels should be viewed as another opportunity for responsible investment in sustainable agriculture, rural development and bioeconomy.

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