Modelling for the NEEAP Case study, Ireland Jim Scheer

Transcription

1 Modelling for the NEEAP Case study, Ireland Jim Scheer SEAI

2 Story of the presentation The marriage of top-down and bottom-up methods perhaps like all marriages not always perfect so we work hard on it and the result is always interesting TD BU

3 Background

4 Making fully informed policy choices A range of tools and models to look at the multiple impacts of energy policy Energy savings (GWh) / avoided imports Value of energy savings ( ) Emissions (CO 2 ) Gross and net jobs estimates Macroeconomic impact (GDP etc.) Cost benefit analysis (NPV) Exchequer cash flow analysis Supply chain development NEEAP / NREAP policy impacts

5 Input data Irish data (EPSSU, CSO, ESRI etc.) SEAI programme data Developing robust models SEAI surveys behaviour and attitudes, sector specific, EPSSU Consultation Expert consultants panel Irish experts (EPSSU, ESRI, industry bodies, etc.) DCCAE (Ministry) steering etc. Other agencies and departments e.g. Enterprise Ireland, IDA, DJEI etc.

6 Headline 2020 targets for Ireland Energy Efficiency 20% energy savings by 2020 (31,925 GWh) Renewable Energy Overall 16% RES of national consumption. Three sub-targets o RES-Electricity 40% o RES-Heat 12% o RES-Transport 10% Emissions EU Effort Sharing Decision ( ) o o 20% reduction non-ets emissions relative to 2005 Annual limits

7 National energy modelling (top-down) TD

8 Modelling data flows Economic growth Fuel and carbon prices COSMO COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy. Macro-econometric model PLEXOS Electricity systems modelling Policy adjusted primary and final energy demand by sector and fuel Primary and final energy demand by sector and fuel Forecast model Excel based accounting TD Energy Efficiency Policy Impact Analysis BU

9 Policy Scenarios Baseline Scenario ( ) All policies and measures implemented prior to the end of the most recent year for which a finalised energy balance is available Adjustments for existing efficiency measures considered too recent to impact on past trends applied to top-down (ESRI) numbers

10 Policy Scenarios NEEAP/NREAP Scenario ( ) Accounts for all obligations captured in the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) and in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) to 2020 Based on achieving 20% efficiency savings 16% of total consumption to come from renewable energy Level of deployment effort required Don t pre-empt future government policy

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15 Energy Efficiency Success requires 16,000 GWh by k home upgrades p.a. 1 bn investment per year 32,000 GWh by 2020 Business and public sector savings

16 Renewable electricity Deploy MW per annum Renewable Electricity Success requires % Biomass CHP, Waste to Energy, Co-firing 40% 2020

17 Renewable transport 8-9% biofuels Requires international supply 10% of acceptable biofuels 50,000 EVs 5.2% Rapid growth in electric vehicles Develop Biogas Use of waste material to produce biogas for transport

18 Renewable heat Renewable Heat Bioenergy plan recommends RHI to deliver remainder of target 300,000 homes or 3,000 SMEs or 200 large industry installing renewable heat source

19 Policy level impacts (bottom-up) BU

20 Focus: Energy Efficiency PAMs Target based on historic demand - fixed level of savings (not of future energy demand) All EE policies and measures in NEEAP National calculation methods per measure Ongoing refinement of methods (scheme sampling, M&R being established)

21 EE Methods per measure Methods vary per sector / owner of measure SEAI run programmes consumer level data Predominately engineering type estimates, with some measurement Adjustment factors for rebound (e.g. comfort) Double counting (measure interaction) eliminated Transport stock model for measure interactions e.g. improved fuel economy, behavioural measures, eco-driving Brief description of key assumptions in Annex of NEEAP

22 Results and reporting Forecast results used for purpose of reporting to EU the anticipated final and primary energy demand in 2020 (TD + BU) National savings per measure reported in the NEEAP (BU) Annual forecast report with all the details, level of effort etc. (TD + BU)

23 Modelling data flows Economic growth Fuel and carbon prices COSMO COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy. Macro-econometric model PLEXOS Electricity systems modelling Policy adjusted primary and final energy demand by sector and fuel Primary and final energy demand by sector and fuel Forecast model Excel based accounting TD Energy Efficiency Policy Impact Analysis BU

24 Publications Supporting Policy

25 Reports at The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland s EU Structural Funds Programme cofunded by the Irish Government and the European Union.