LUCI : A tool that models multiple ecosystems services at the farm, catchment, regional and national scales

Transcription

1 LUCI : A tool that models multiple ecosystems services at the farm, catchment, regional and national scales Bethanna Jackson School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences Victoria University of Wellington

2 Background to LUCI LUCI implements & extends the Polyscape framework described in Jackson et al (2013)* Research in Wales demonstrated strategically planted hedgerows or shelter belts could significantly reduce runoff and sediment movement (flood risk) and, by implication, change water quality. Work up-scaling impacts of detailed farm interventions to catchment scale & conversations with farmers and interdisciplinary scientists inspired design criteria. *Jackson, B, Pagella, T, Sinclair, F, Orellana, B, Henshaw, A, McIntyre, N, Reynolds, B, Wheater, H, Eycott, A (2013) Polyscape: a GIS mapping toolbox providing efficient and spatially explicit landscape-scale valuation of multiple ecosystem services, Urban and Landscape Planning 112,

3 Importance of landscape organisation a) Permeable strip near top of slope ( High shelter belt ) b) Permeable strip near bottom of slope ( Low shelter belt ) c) Permeable strip against slope ( Shelter belt 90 o to contour ) Fine resolution detail rarely represented in catchment models Issue for prediction and also for derivation and use of model parameters e.g. hydraulic conductivity, nitrogen export, etc Direction of down-slope movement

4 LUCI accounts for landscape organisation, and spatially targets intervention opportunities

5 LUCI actively identifies tradeoffs and synergies

6 Underlying principles: Practical 1) Can be run using just 3 nationally available datasets and be enhanced with local data if available 2) Modular can embed external models & export aspects to other models 3) Fast running, enabling interactive scenario exploration Conceptual 1) Operates at a spatial scale relevant for field and sub-field level management decisions 2) Values features and potential interventions by area affected, not just area directly modified 3) Addresses spatial tradeoffs & searches for win-win solutions

7 Underlying principles: Practical 1) Can be run using just 3 nationally available datasets and be enhanced with local data if available 2) Modular can embed external models & export aspects to other models 3) Fast running, enabling interactive scenario exploration and simultaneous sub-field to national planning Conceptual 1) Operates at a spatial scale relevant for field and sub-field level management decisions 2) Values features and potential interventions by area affected, not just area directly modified 3) Addresses spatial tradeoffs & searches for win-win solutions

8 Mapping Wales (21,000 km2) at 5mx5m scale: ~800 million elements per service Carbon emissions Nitrate in rivers Agricultural use Flood mitigation Woodland priorities

9 Fig 1 from Bagstad et al. (2013): Ecosystem services are the benefits mankind derives from a range of ecosystem processes

10 Fig 1 from Bagstad et al. (2013): Ecosystem services are the benefits mankind derives from a range of ecosystem processes

11 Services currently modelled by Service Production C stock/emissions CH 4 /N 2 O emissions Water supply and floods/ droughts Erosion Sediment delivery Water quality Method Based on slope, fertility, drainage, aspect, climate IPCC Tier 1 compatible based on soil & vegetation IPCC Tier 1 compatible soils, veg, stocking rate, fertiliser Topographical routing of water accounting for storage and infiltration capacity as function of soil & land use. Slope, curvature, contributing area, land use, soil type Erosion combined with detailed topographical routing Export coefficients (land cover, farm type, fertiliser, stocking rate info) combined with water and sediment delivery models Habitat Approaches 1) Cost-distance approach: dispersal, fragmentation, connectivity. 2) Identification of priority habitat by biophysical requirements e.g. wet grassland 3) Measures of habitat richness, evenness, patch size etc Coast/ floodplain inundation risk Tradeoffs/synergy identification Based on topography and input height of storm surge/long term rise etc: surface and groundwater impacts estimated Various layering options with categorised service maps; e.g. Boolean, conservative, weighted arithmetic, distribution plots

12 How is LUCI being applied in NZ and internationally? Waituna convergence zone analysis, now regional nutrient loading analysis (ES) Farm LUCI for use by Ravensdown Welsh Government and various Defra/council applications Phase I NZ model interoperability project (OLW) Vanuatu, Philippines, Bulgaria, Australia (Hunter Valley) applications MBIE Smart Models for Aquifer Management (better groundwater representation into LUCI, Topnet, CLUES) B+L project + Ravensdown/GWRC projects looking at collaborative multi-farm catchment scale applications, etc Exploring flood mitigation opportunities (e.g. Hutt River, Selwyn)

13 Farm scale application procedure Preprocess best available GIS datasets along with farm Overseer data to reconcile inconstancies and use best detail available at any point. N and P load and zones of high accumulation calculated, accounting for existing mitigation and identifying further opportunities. Optimization routine targets high load and zones of accumulation, then minimises loss of production. LUCI or more sophisticated external estimates of production supported; e.g. pasture growth forecast model in upcoming results. Mitigation scenario impacts then explored via either user defined scenarios or quick target tools (e.g. reduce Olsen P, riparian planting).

14 Brings in national or more detailed digital elevation information, soil, cover, climate information; along with regional management averages; Reads in Overseer output file; Associates this with block layer to allow it to allocate information spatially; Extracts relevant values (N and P inputs, irrigation type, Olsen P level, soil order etc.); Overwrites baseline cover and management information where block information is present, optionally overwrites soil information. extraction of input information

15 Example: West Waikato sheep and beef station (Accumulated) N or P Load High: Low Nitrogen load Phosphorus load Nitrogen accumulated load Phosphorus accumulated load

16 Example: South Otago dairy farm Nitrogen load Accumulated P load Dry matter production Phosphorus load Accumulated N load (Accumulated) Load or Production High: Low

17 Interception mitigation opportunity optimisation 22ha targeted; 285 ha impacted. 1:13 76ha targeted; 322 ha impacted. 1:4 169ha targeted; 404 ha impacted. 2:5 39ha targeted; 356 ha impacted. 1:9 133ha targeted; 394 ha impacted. 1:3 Legend Mitigation targets Area receiving mitigation benefits Streams Non-mitigated areas

18 Automated mitigation scenario exploration Targeted soil Olsen P reduction scenario: P load; blue = maximum reduction, green minimal reduction

19 Farm LUCI announced over the last two weeks; operational from February

20 Mackenzie country station

21 Maps and data are generated allowing detailed exploration of TN or TP loads and concentrations both in-stream and on land. Figure 4. TN load generated within the landscape Figure 5a. Accumulated TN load for the Lake Rotorua catchment. Figure 5b. Accumulated TN load close up.

22 Output Data: Waterbodies

23 Groundtruthing flood mitigation output (Uawa, NZ) Farmer: I never realised this was boggy land until my tractor got stuck here two years ago Green (soggy) areas have been drained by farmer Farmer agrees this is wet, overland flow generating land. Plans to put in further drainage routing off land

24 Waituna convergence zone work

25 Work in East Coast region culturally valuing landscape

26 Flood inundation capabilities

27 International context

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29 Impact of tree planting at Pontbren

30 Evaluating LUCI output e.g. Water quality

31 Environmental Stewardship (Env St) outcomes with and without strategic spatial planning: Bassenthwaite catchment Metric Units Before Env St After Env St Optim Area with LUCI* Optim Outcome with LUCI* Total present carbon kg/ha Total future carbon kg/ha Broadleaf woodland km Area accessible to BLW species % *Optim area= same area/payment,more outcome; Potential wet grassland % *Optim outcome = less area/payment, similar outcome Land in production % Non- mitigated land % Connected sediment generating land P export to rivers/lake Peak flow change in max. Summer flood % kg/ha/ yr % baseline

32 Environmental Stewardship (Env St) outcomes with and without strategic spatial planning: Bassenthwaite catchment Metric Units Before Env St After Env St Optim Area with LUCI* Optim Outcome with LUCI* Total present carbon kg/ha Total future carbon kg/ha Broadleaf woodland km Area accessible to BLW species % Potential wet grassland % Land in production % Non- mitigated land % Connected sediment generating land P export to rivers/lake Peak flow change in max. Summer flood % kg/ha/ yr % baseline *Optim area= same area/payment, more outcome; *Optim outcome = less area/payment, similar outcome

33 Scenario Analysis: habitat connectivity and flood risk layers Original vegetation and habitat survey data Corrected for recent planting Habitat connectivity Flood mitigation

34 Impact of tree planting in Pontbren? Benefit was 4 times the area modified for broadleaved woodland focal species and runoff mitigation Service Actual area modified (%) Area receiving benefit (%) Broadleaved focal species Runoff peak In other catchments we observe a range from x1 to 10 depending on site and placement Conclusion: Spatially explicit modelling is critical if benefits are not to be under-estimated

35 How is LUCI being applied in NZ and internationally? Waituna convergence zone analysis, now regional nutrient loading analysis (ES) Farm LUCI for use by Ravensdown Welsh Government and various Defra/council applications Phase I NZ model interoperability project (OLW) Vanuatu, Philippines, Bulgaria, Australia (Hunter Valley) applications MBIE Smart Models for Aquifer Management (better groundwater representation into LUCI, Topnet, CLUES) B+L project + Ravensdown/GWRC projects looking at collaborative multi-farm catchment scale applications, etc Exploring flood mitigation opportunities (e.g. Hutt River, Selwyn)

36 Questions? Thank you!