Scenarios for future energy systems

Transcription

1 ME 217: Energy, Environment & Society Fall 2013 Scenarios for future energy systems

2 Drivers for change The easy fossil fuels have or are about to peak. Unconventional oil & gas are more expensive to extract and / or present signifcant environmental hazards. GHG emissions deriving from combustion of fossil fuels have the potential to disrupt the world's climate, possibly severely, with consequences which are diffcult to foresee. World population in increasing, as is per capita energy consumption. 2/19

3 Where can we go from here? Electricity should play a bigger role than its already considerable one. Fossil fuels are not going away. However, carbon sequestration technologies should become the norm for every stationary combustion plant. Negawatts, not Megawatts. Nuclear power will continue to be part of the mix, with appropriate safeguards and new technology. Renewables will ramp up to become one of the major sources of energy 3/19

4 Ingredients of the energy future 4/19

5 A personal perspective Overall individual energy consumption goes down Electricity consumption goes up Biofuels only where they make sense or are strictly necessary Wood pellets Aviation fuel 5/19

6 How to produce lots of electricity? Solar PV Solar thermal where possible (e.g. deserts) with longdistance transmission Nuclear power Wind, including offshore Incineration of municipal waste Clean fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration Biomass also with CCS (net removal of CO2 from atmosphere!) 6/19

7 UK Plan D: domestic diversity Coal & nuclear play a major role (including re-opening UK coal mines) Wind power increased 30-fold (requiring substantial installation capacity of offshore & storage) PV panels virtually on every southfacing rooftop Incineration of municipal waste Clean fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration 7/19

8 UK Plan N: NIMBY Moderate expansion of nuclear Wind plays relatively minor role Greatly expanded role of clean coal Lots of solar, but in someone else's roof (or desert, more precisely) Incineration of municipal waste Almost 3/4 of electricity imported under this scenario 8/19

9 UK Plan L: no nukes No role for nuclear All possible local renewables exploited Incineration of municipal waste Lots of solar imported from sunny countries About 2/3 of electricity imported under this scenario 9/19

10 UK Plan G: green Wind energy greatly expanded, becomes single largest resource Major infrastructure upgrades, including expansion of pumped storage As much as possible wave & tide Some solar imported from sunny countries About 14% of electricity imported under this scenario 10/19

11 UK Plan E: market/tax driven A strong carbon tax coupled with liberalized energy market Nuclear marginally more economical than coal or imported solar Wind plays a signifcant but minor role No net energy imports (except for Uranium) 11/19

12 The options side by side 12/19

13 Can this really be done? 13/19

14 How much would it cost? For the UK, between 300B and 900B, translating to 5000 to 15,000 per person For the US, things would be a little cheaper (per capita, of course) Wow, that still seems like a lot!!! But - it does not have to be all done in one year, more likely over a decade to 50 years, meaning (ballpark) $1,000 to $200 per year 14/19

15 Other things that cost $$$ Yearly energy expenditures Decommissioning old nuclear plants Replacing defense systems Cosmetics Airports Highways 15/19

16 and even more expensive things 16/19

17 Some reasons for current inaction The cost of GHG emissions is not internalized David MacKay's proposed solutions: Government rule that all coal-fred power plants must implement carbon capture CO2 emissions must have a cost something on the order of $100/ton to have a measurable effect Indications that markets alone won't deal with the issues: booms and busts, credit crunches, and collapses of banks Would cars have airbags and catalytic converters if they were not forced to? 17/19

18 The tragedy of the commons or why every attempt at international cooperation on GHG emissions curtailment ultimately failed Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his input without limit in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons (Hardin, Science 1968, p. 1244). 18/19

19 The role of the energy professional Professional activity Research & development Prospecting for resources Streamlining the installation process Outreach Fight energy ignorance Lead by example Nurture relationships with the trades Become involved in local government Support young people's interest in the energy feld 19/19