Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector:

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector: Impacts and Adaptation Options in the ECA Region By: Ziad Nakat Transport Specialist, MNSSD May 11 th, 2009

2 Introduction Climate factors directly affect: the planning, design, construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructure the operation and provision of transportation services The demand for transportation and modal choice. There has been relatively little research on Climate change adaptation in the Transport sector While Adaptation is not likely to significantly alter the sector, its costs might be substantial given its size and the issues at stake

3 Projected Change in Mean Temperature,

4 Projected Change in Daily Rainfall Intensity,

5 Impact of Climate Change on Transport Infrastructure Hazard Impact on Transport Infrastructure Country/Region Sea level rise & - Flooding of costal land infrastructure - Baltic Storm Surge - Damage to port infrastructure - Black Sea Higher recurrence of extreme events (wind and storms) - Greater likelihood of infrastructure failures - Increased threat to long span bridges stability - Damage to cranes, terminal facilities, and railways overhead line - - Central Europe - Baltic - Black Sea Increased Precipitation intensity - Flooding of roads, railways, and Tunnels - Slope failures and landslides (Rail, Road) - Washout of gravel and earth roads - All of ECA Extreme heat - Increased pavement deterioration, softening, cracking, rutting, and bleeding - Thermal expansion of bridge joints - Increased forest fires affecting land infrastructure - Rail track deformation and buckling - Central Asia - South East Europe - Caucasus - Turkey - Central Europe Changes in precipitation pattern (averages) Permafrost Degradation - Increased drought will reduce the navigability of Inland Waterways - Lower water table will affect base stability and results in settlement of infrastructure - Base stability of most infrastructure is affected resulting in substantial failures - South East Europe - Caucasus - Turkey - Eastern and Northern Russia

6 Impact of Climate change on Transport Operations Hazard Impact on Transport Operations Country/Region Higher recurrence of - Disruptions of transport operations for all - Central Europe extreme events modes of traffic - Baltic (wind and storms) - Delays and cancelation of flights, and unreliable air travel service - Black Sea - Reduced travel speed Increased precipitation intensity - Increased risks from accidents, particularly on roads - Flooding of railways and roads - Increased travel costs due to increased vehicle failure and decreased speeds - All of ECA Overall warming - Reduced de-icing costs for all vehicles - Longer shipping seasons in Arctic - Increased mobility and demand - Longer construction season Sea level rise & Storm Surge - Disruptions to port operations - Flooding of costal infrastructure Extreme heat - Increased ventilation and safety concerns in Tunnels - Additional costs due to refrigeration of transported goods - Reduced mobility - Most of ECA - Baltic - Black Sea - - Central Asia - South East Europe - Caucasus - Turkey

7 Impact on Transportation Demand There is little research on this topic Transportation demand is not likely to be directly impacted by adaptation Adaptation might affect Transportation demand through its impact on other sectors Impact on Transport Modal Shares? => Mitigation to impact transport Demand while Adaptation to impact transport Supply

8 Some Benefits Longer construction seasons, improved efficiencies, and reduced costs Lower winter maintenance costs Longer navigation seasons on some Inland Waterways and Seas Possible Long term changes in navigation routes? (Arctic/Northern Passage)

9 Sample Adaptation Challenges in Transport With increased precipitation intensity, keep repairing a gravel/earth road or pave it? Where to build my port, and how to dimension it? Should I build a larger breakwater to protect city, and who will pay for it? Will I have more severe snow storms and how to prepare/manage transport operations and services? What type of communication/institutions needed? Where will the money come from?

10 Adaptation Strategy Approaching the Challenge Strategy function of timeframe of planned activity, existing institutions, and available resources CC Adaptation an incremental challenge Bottom up approach to decision making: Given available resources, how to best design my system? => less dependency on climate models Adaptation Options Wait & See: For short lived activities & scarce resources No regret: particularly for maintenance & drainage Win-Win: Mitigation & Adaptation

11 Decision tools Adaptation Strategy System approach => Robustness, Reliability and Redundancy Probabilistic approach to decision making: (vulnerability assessment, prioritization of interventions, fail safe concept) Policy and Institutions Harmonize Mitigation & Adaptation policies Strengthen Institutional capacity & cooperation within a System- Not necessarily a sector Institutions function of resources and challenges

12 Funding and insurance Adaptation Strategy Strengthen contingency planning & emergency funds Ensure Private sector properly insured Technical Solutions Transport Operations and Safety => weather forecasting Improve design criteria for long lived infrastructure (how?) Improve land use planning Collect data on climate variables, costs, and report failures Use of construction techniques and new materials Use sensors and ITS for monitoring

13 World Bank Role Help design and implement adaptation programs Continue emphasis on maintenance Strengthen Institutional capacity and cooperation Strengthen regional cooperation Strengthen contingency planning-emergency funds Watch for Transparency Issues Assist in knowledge dissemination Promote innovative solutions and techniques => Important Bank additionality to counterparts

14 How to Build/Integrate Adaptation in Existing Tools Asset management: include climate proofing, drainage, slope stability Performance based contracts: More attention to climate, particularly for winter maintenance Safety & Operations: Consider a larger WB role Institutional: Reinforce Coordination, particularly during climate related emergency PPP: Further attention to climate related risks and their allocation, as well as insurance

15 Conclusions Climate Change impacts transport infrastructure, services, and demand Impacts on the sector result from: Extreme events ( tail of the distribution ) => related to the disaster mitigation agenda Recurrence of high frequency low impact events => Particularly important from sectors point of view as it results in gradual attrition of resources, with rare compensations from Budget Change in Mean variables => Chronic trends

16 Conclusions Climate Change Adaptation an incremental challenge However the costs can be very large given the size of the sector Relation of Transport & other sectors Part of the Problem: Roads/Railways can channel flood water into cities/areas But mostly part of the solution: Transport essential for preventive measures (infrastructure, emergency routes ) Transport essential for post-crisis recovery (access, channeling of relief/aid, evacuation )

17 Conclusions Climate change adaptation measures and policies shall address system issues Thinking should shift partly from optimal/efficiency to robustness World Bank has an important role to play, and significant value to add Adaptation a new business line? Adaptation directly affects counterparts assets Adaptation mostly affects the supply side