FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Activities

Transcription

1 FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Activities Southern Transportation & Air Quality Summit 2011 Raleigh, NC July 20, 2011 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Heather Holsinger FHWA, Office of Natural Environment 1

2 Why be Concerned about Climate Change Impacts? Design life of transportation infrastructure: decades or longer As climate changes, our infrastructure will need to evolve to handle new conditions Each region has unique transportation assets, and faces different vulnerabilities and risks What are the State s risks? Flooded roadways in Houston 2

3 FHWA and Climate Change Adaptation Goal: systematic consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making Systems level (Metropolitan, Statewide planning) & individual projects, as appropriate Motivations Internal: protect integrity of transportation investments, safety External: CEQ guidance on addressing climate change in NEPA and Adaptation Planning Interdisciplinary cooperation is key to effort Represents cooperative effort of multiple offices in FHWA, U.S. DOT, AASHTO, AMPO, and partnerships with science agencies such as USGS 3

4 Overview of FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities Providing information, outreach; developing and promoting use of tools and methodologies; application FHWA Agency-wide Adaptation Working Group draft strategy underway The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure - Atlantic Coast Study (2008) Two Workshops on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Transportation with CTE at NC State University (2005 and 2006) Regional Climate Change Effects: Useful Information for Transportation Agencies (2010) FHWA/AASHTO State DOT climate Change Workshops Vulnerability and risk assessment conceptual model (2010) and associated Pilots (ongoing) Gulf Coast Study: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure Phase 1 Gulf-wide (2008); Phase 2 Mobile, AL (ongoing) Adaptation peer exchanges (2008, 2009, 2011, etc.) 4

5 FHWA Agency-Wide Adaptation Work Climate Change Adaptation Working Group formed in 2009 to discuss adaptation considerations in the highway context with representatives from across FHWA offices: Planning, Environment, and Realty Infrastructure Operations Safety Federal Lands Highways Developed draft adaptation strategy to outline: Key climate adaptation areas in which FHWA will focus its attention How FHWA intends to help transportation agencies adapt 5

6 FHWA Adaptation Initiatives FHWA is developing and sharing information on tools and methodologies that states and MPOs can use to assess risk and prioritize actions: Climate projections Critical asset identification Vulnerability assessment methodologies Source: City of New York 6

7 Regional Climate Change Effects (2010) Report synthesizes information on climate change projections for transportation decision makers Snapshot: Summarizes recent science Projected changes by region Annual, Seasonal Temperature (change in o F) Seasonal Precipitation (% change) Where information exists: Sea level rise, Storm activity Also includes information at local, state scales Received assistance from climate experts at NOAA, USGS, DOE, etc. 7

8 Projections of Regional Changes Projections of near-term, mid-term, end-of-century are provided for each region, based on USGCRP (2009) report Two emission scenarios (B1, A2) IPCC AR4 climate models Regionally processed Report also includes results from other studies 8

9 How Can This Information Be Applied? Inform decision-making efforts with a consistent set of projections Help understand which areas may be susceptible to changes in sea level rise, temperature, precipitation, etc. Starting point for discussion of potential future changes but information too broad / uncertain to make definitive decisions on specific projects Can inform consideration of vulnerability of key assets Projections by definition are somewhat uncertain Regional projections mask differences within a region Use of this information may vary by purpose (e.g., planning, asset management, etc.) and location 9

10 Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model Goal: Help transportation decision makers identify vulnerable assets and adaptation strategies most exposed to the threats from climate change; and/or could result in the most serious consequences as a result of those threats Conceptual model completed Pilots - Use by State DOTs and MPOs ( ) Update the conceptual model 10

11 Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model Develop inventory of infrastructure assets Gather climate data Assess vulnerability and risk of assets to projected climate change Analyze, prioritize adaptation options Monitor and revisit 11

12 Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Locations WASHINGTON San Francisco CALIFORNIA Central Coastal NEW JERSEY Hampton Roads VIRGINIA Oahu HAWAII

13 Pilot: New Jersey DOT Study Areas: New Jersey Coastal Central New Jersey Partners: New Jersey DOT North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection 13

14 Pilot: Washington State DOT Statewide geographic scope Studying WSDOT owned and managed facilities potentially at risk to a range of impacts: Sea-level rise inundation areas Rivers and stream channel migration, melt effects Extreme temperature effects Drought threats to wetland creation, mitigation sites, roadside vegetation, soil moisture/flux, invasive species, worker health, wildfire Precipitation changes- threats to slope stabilization, stormwater management, erosion control, landslides, road survivability Wildfire safety, emergency response 14

15 Pilot: Virginia DOT Focus on Hampton Roads Asset Management, Security Perspective Partners: Virginia Transportation Research Council (VDOT) Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, UVA Center for Transportation Studies, UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 15

16 Pilot: Oahu MPO Scope: Island of Oahu, HI Consultant will perform risk assessment of identified transportation assets Public input meetings Partners: Oahu MPO HI DOT HI Dept. of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism HI State Civil Defense City and County of Honolulu U. of HI Center for Island Climate Adaptation and Policy The Pacific Disaster Center People s Advocacy for Trails Hawaii 16

17 Pilot: Metropolitan Transportation Commission Focus on San Francisco Bay Complements a NOAA funded sub-regional project Partners: MTC, CalTrans District 4, San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, NOAA, Association of Bay Area Governments, Bay Area Air Quality Management District 17

18 Gulf Coast Project Examines Issues at Metropolitan Scale Phase 1 Overview of climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure in central Gulf Coast (completed 2008) Phase 2 Focus on one metropolitan area Mobile, AL Development of adaptation tools and strategies that will be transferable to other areas Timeframe:

19 Gulf Coast 2 Study: Task Objectives Task 1: Identify critical assets in Mobile Task 2: Climate impacts Develop climate information Assess sensitivity of assets to climate stressors Task 3: Determine vulnerability of critical assets Broad assessment of vulnerability In-depth vulnerability assessment of some of the most critical assets Task 4: Develop risk management tool(s) Task 5: Coordination with Planning Authorities and the Public Ongoing Task 6: Information dissemination and publication 19

20 Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems For each mode, which assets are critical to Mobile area Determine subset of transportation network for vulnerability assessment and adaptive measures Develop a process applicable to multiple transportation modes Conduct a careful review of relevant transportation models Collect data on relevant attributes of each asset Develop GIS layers of critical transportation assets, for later study tasks 20

21 Task 2: Projected Climate Data USGS providing statistically downscaled projections for T and P 4 to 7 Climate models (PCM, Hadley, ) 3 emission scenarios (A1fi, A2, B1); 3 time horizons out to 2100 Secondary variables calculated from daily T and P, e.g., 24-hr precip with 5%/yr prob Sea level rise analysis Range of recent global SLR scenarios used Accounts for local subsidence Storm Surge Modeling ADCIRC Range of storm intensities Output includes surge distribution and dynamics Wave Modeling STWAVE Inputs from ADCIRC output and boundary conditions Outputs include key aspects of wave energy Exposure of transportation systems will be assessed using a GIS analysis 21

22 Climate Change Adaptation Peer Exchanges Peer Exchanges conducted in 2008, 2009, and 2011 Involved representatives of state DOTs and FHWA Division Offices to discuss climate change adaptation approaches with staff from FHWA Headquarters and AASHTO Identified common barriers to adaptation efforts: Information gaps (e.g., mapping and scenario modeling, funding opportunities) Knowledge gaps (e.g., state legislature, environmental permitting agencies, developers, the public) Lack of coordination (with federal and state agencies) Lack of understanding of how to link existing efforts to adaptation strategies MPO peer exchange planned for

23 Lessons Learned (so far) Interdisciplinary cooperation is key Need to include science information, engineering specifications, planning processes, etc. Multi-disciplinary stakeholder communication is not easy Understand existing decision-making processes and frameworks Embrace the uncertainty Must be comfortable with range of climate projections Not all climate trends are clear Community priorities are an integral part of a climate vulnerability assessment Impacts and concerns will vary by region no onesize-fits-all answers 23

24 Sustainable Transport & Climate Change Team Mike Culp, Team Leader, John Davies, GHG emissions analysis, modeling, performance measures Connie Hill Galloway, sustainability, brownfields and hazardous waste sites Heather Holsinger, sustainability, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, energy Rob Hyman, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis Rob Kafalenos, adaptation, energy Becky Lupes, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, NEPA Diane Turchetta, GHG emissions analysis, energy For more information see: 24

25 Thank you. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Heather Holsinger Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team FHWA Office of Natural Environment

26 What Are Possible Adaptation Responses? Accommodate: Maintain and manage Absorb increased maintenance / repair costs Improve real-time response to severe events Strengthen structures / protect facilities Design changes when rebuilding / new investment Promote buffers, sea walls, etc. Relocate / avoid Move key facilities Site new facilities in less vulnerable locations Abandon and Disinvest Enhance redundancy Identify system alternatives 26

27 Regional Climate Change Effects: Temperature

28 Regional Climate Change Effects: Precipitation