Steven M. Peterson, PG, J.S. Stanton, N.A. Houston, S.L. Qi, A.T. Flynn, and D.W. Ryter U.S. Department of the Interior U.S.

Transcription

1 The High Plains Groundwater Availability Study: Abundant Groundwater Doesn t Necessarily Mean Abundant Surface Water Steven M. Peterson, PG, J.S. Stanton, N.A. Houston, S.L. Qi, A.T. Flynn, and D.W. Ryter U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2 Overview Groundwater Resources Program, water availability for principal aquifer systems Characteristics of the Northern High Plains aquifer, model, and assessment of future water availability Streamflow triggers driving integrated management

3 Regional-Scale Approach to a National Assessment

4 Total Withdrawals by Aquifer in US Source: Maupin and Barber, 2005

5 Our plan of study New groundwater models of all three portions of the High Plains aquifer beyond scope Estimates of selected water budget components for the entire High Plains aquifer New model of the Northern High Plains aquifer

6 High Plains Groundwater Availability Study Water Budget Report

7 Notes on SIR For the entire High Plains aquifer Compiled and compared previously published estimates of water-budget components, relevant to groundwater For some components, generate additional estimates using new techniques No judgments nor endorsements of the quality of the estimates

8 Estimated Recharge,

9 Range of Water Budget Volumes: Units = Million ac-ft/yr

10 Range of Water Budget Volumes: Units = Million ac-ft/yr

11 High Plains Digital Data Series Report Contains 7 geodatabases with spatial data from the water-budget report, geologic data, historical and forecasted land-use data, and water levels and stream base flows February 9, 2015

12 Soil-Water Balance Model Daily Soil-Water Balance based on readily available physical and climatic data Refined SWB code (USGS Techniques and Methods 6-A31) beyond what was available at the time of the water-budget report (SIR ), to better represent effects of agriculture and estimate groundwater irrigation Revised water budget report SWB model to cover entire period

13 Groundwater Recharge

14 Measured and Estimated Data for Calibration Nearly 335,000 spring and fall water levels from Over 8,100 water levels for pre-development stream base flow estimated for over 11,000 measurements at 91 gages Predevelopment stream base flow estimated for 25 major gages

15 Water Levels Temporal Distribution

16 1940

17 2008

18 Streamgage Locations

19 Calibration Approach Parameter estimation using PEST Over 1,300 parameters temporal and spatial changes in recharge hydraulic conductivity streambed hydraulic conductivity More than 25 programs and 10 batch files; many set up to run in automated fashion Parallel Computing, about 65 nodes used

20 Considerations Size of the area and resulting amount of data required innovative approaches Benefits from previous and ongoing studies For instance, integration of geophysical data Collaboration with USGS National Research Program, and other colleagues

21 Current Status Model calibration complete pending review process Model report writing underway Yet to come Analysis of Water Availability Final Report

22 Calibration Results Mean water level residual: -1.5 feet About 335,000 measurements from Simulated and estimated stream base flows: mean residual <14 ft^3/s (charts to follow)

23 Provisional, Simulated Groundwater Level Residuals 1950s 2000s

24 PROVISIONAL!! PROVISIONAL

25 PROVISIONAL! PROVISIONAL Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapp

26 PROVISIONAL! PROVISIONAL

27 PROVISIONAL! PROVISIONAL

28 PROVISIONAL! PROVISIONAL

29 PROVISIONAL! PROVISIONAL

30 Analysis of Future Water Availability ( ) Estimates of future land-use patterns Climate data : downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data Future land-use and climate data + soilwater balance model to estimate future recharge and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation Assess impacts on future streamflows and groundwater levels

31 Future Land Use FORE-SCE model March 19th, 2015

32 March 19 th, 2015

33 March 19 th, 2015

34 Future Land-Cover Summary Minor classes not shown: forest (2 more), disturbed, mining, barren, another wetland

35 Other Potential Uses Published model and analyses are really just the start For example, could be adapted to investigate many other questions, from local to aquiferscale Foundation for future studies Many other possibilities

36 Areas for Possible Further Development A simulation of landscape hydrology fully coupled with groundwater hydrology would provide additional information, such as: Forecasts of the availability of surface-water for irrigation Efficient analysis of irrigation delivery tradeoffs More efficient forecasting of effects of land-use or crop-type changes on water resources Characterization of co-mingled irrigated agriculture March 19th, 2015

37 Sequentially Coupled Model Land use data Climate data Soil-water balance Output: estimated Irrigation, recharge Stream data Aquifer data Groundwater model Output: simulated water budgets, water levels, streamflows March 19th, 2015

38 MODFLOW-OWHM Think of it like, MODFLOW- plus Integrated Hydrologic/Land-Use Model All the water, all the time, everywhere Couples: Hydrologic processes and flows Irrigation demand and availability Farm-by-farm accounting

39

40 Fully Coupled Model Land use data Climate data Stream data Aquifer data Integrated landscape hydrology and groundwater flow model Output: simulated water budgets, irrigation demand and supply, interaction of landscape and groundwater hydrology, water levels, streamflows

41 Summary High Plains aquifer is an important national and regional resource Subregions are unique and different from each other in many ways Hydrogeology and processes affecting the groundwater system, define the challenges Study and models address driving water management issues, for the nation and the region

42 CONTACT INFORMATION Steven M. Peterson (402) Robert B. Swanson Director (402) Jason M. Lambrecht Associate Director for Hydrologic Data (402) Richard C. Wilson, P.E. Deputy Director (402) Ronald B. Zelt Associate Director for NAWQA (402)