DETERMINATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS IN CUBA

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2 I. Background DETERMINATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS IN CUBA Dr. Carlos M. López Cabrera Head National GHG Inventory Team Institute of Meteorology Carretera del Asilo s/n. Loma de Casablanca, Municipio Regla, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. CP Tel: (537) ; Fax: (537) The preparation, periodic updating, publication and transmission to the Conference of the Parties (COP), of national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases (GHG) not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, is one of the common commitments to all Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Cuba signed the UNFCCC during the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (June 1992), and ratified it on January 5, In Cuba have been prepared National GHG Inventory Reports corresponding to the years 1990 (López et al., 1999); 1994 (López et al., 2000), 1996 (López et al., 2002) and 1998 (López et al., 2003). For the inventory corresponding to the year 2000 has been obtained preliminary outcomes (López et al., 2004) that will be improved, and extended, in dependence of the resources that could be dedicated for this objective as part of the preparation of the Second Communication of Cuba to the UNFCCC. At the moment it is in preparation the inventory corresponding to The frequency selected for the preparation of inventories (every two years) it is considered enough for an appropriate representation of the emissions tendency in the country. This inventories has been carried out within the framework of the Scientific-Technical Program Protection of Cuban Environment and Sustainable Development coordinated by the Environmental Agency of Cuba, and also as part of the activities of the CCTRAIN Program (1990 Inventory) and the CUB/98/G31 Project: Enabling Activity so that Cuba Elaborates its National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, with financing from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and implemented by the UNDP (1994 Inventory). The inventories corresponding to 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2002 (preliminary versions for these two last) have been financed, totally, by the Cuban State. II. Inventory Agency National System for the Calculation of Emissions The National System for the inventory preparation is based on the work of a multidisciplinary technical team (The National GHG Inventory Team) with three working groups coordinated by the Institute of Meteorology from the Environment Agency/Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment. The first working group, mainly constituted by experts in air pollution, atmospheric chemistry and climate from the Institute of Meteorology, assumes the methodological activities, calculations of emissions and uncertainties, preparation of chapters, and general coordination of the inventory compilation. The second working group, constituted by experts from the National Statistic Office, assumes the 2

3 collection of most of the activity data necessary for the inventory preparation. Experts in statistics, from the different sectors involved in the inventory, participate in this group. The third working group is constituted by experts from different ministries and institutions linked to different modules of the inventory, who participate not only providing specialized information of their sectors but also assuming the estimate of emissions in several activities. NATIONAL GHG INVENTORY TEAM WORKING GROUP 1 Coordination, Planning, Preparation, Management (Based on the Institute of Meteorology) WORKING GROUP 2 Collection of Activity Data (Based on the National Statistic Office) WORKING GROUP 3 Sectoral Specialized Information (Experts from Ministries and Institutions linked to different Inventory Modules) The Institute of Meteorology from the Environment Agency/Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, is the national entity that has overall responsibility for the national inventory, including the responsibility of disseminating the inventory results to domestic and international organizations. In the Team, are defined and distributed specific responsibilities of each institution and expert participant. For this objective are used contracts or cooperation agreements. Principal Institution Institute of Meteorology from the Environment Agency/Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment. (The Institute of Meteorology/ National GHG Inventory Team is the Inventory Agency and National Entity for the National GHG Emissions Inventory of Cuba) Main Participating Institutions Atmospheric Chemistry and Pollution Center (CECONT) from the Institute of Meteorology Climate Center from the Institute of Meteorology National Statistic Office Energy Information and Development Center (Cubaenergía) Transport Research and Development Center Polytechnic Superior Institute José Antonio Echeverría. Agriculture Ministry Forestry Research Institute Other ministries and institutions providing activity data III. Methodologies For the determination of emissions are used the 1996 IPCC Revised Guidelines (IPCC-OECD-IEA, 1997). From the inventory corresponding to 1996 was introduced, in the extension that resulted possible, the application of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000). CORINAIR and US EPA AP-42 methodologies and emission factors are also used in some source categories. In the preliminary report corresponding to the year

4 and in the inventory in preparation corresponding to 2002, were also introduced initial elements from IPCC GPG for LULUCF (IPCC, 2003). From the inventory corresponding to 1996, have been incorporated Tier 2 methods in most of key sources categories, for example: In the determination of emissions from electricity production, besides the Tier 1 approaches (Reference Approach and Sectoral Approach) it is used the Tier 2/3 approach (a detailed technology-based method). The estimation of CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management is made with the Tier 2 method where country specific data are used to develop emission factors for country-defined livestock categories. The estimation of CH 4 emissions from solid waste disposal sites is made both with the default method (Tier 1) and the First Order Decay (FOD) method (Tier 2). Activity Data In the inventory are used, fundamentally, country specific official data collected and prepared by the National Statistics Office (NSO). Additionally, for some source categories, the inventory team collects activity data directly. Emission Factors In the inventories corresponding to 1990 and 1994 were used, basically, the emission factors provided by the IPCC Guidelines. From the inventory corresponding to 1996, in some source categories have been calculated and used, emission factors and parameters that are better adapted to the circumstances and characteristics of the country. The new emissions factors, and other emission parameters introduced in each inventory, are also used for emission recalculations in the inventories compiled previously. IV. Key Source Categories Cuba has made a key source Tier 1 analysis, both level and trend assessment as part of its 1996, 1998 and 2000 national inventory report. It is in plan to implement a Tier 2 approach for key source analysis in the improvement phase of the initial versions for the years 2000 and In the cited inventory reports, were identified the following key sources categories, those which according to its importance in the inventory could be ordered approximately of the following form (in the last years changes have been observed in this distribution with increase of importance in some categories and loss of importance in others). Key Source Categories ( ) Key Source Categories (2000) 1 CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion for energy 1 CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion for energy 2-3 N2O emissions from agricultural soils 2 N2O emissions from agricultural soils 3-4 CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock 3 CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock 5 CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal in land 4 CH4 emissions from oil and natural gas activities 6 CH4 emissions from oil and natural gas activities 5 CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal in land 7 CO2 emissions from cement production 6 CO 2 emission from natural gas activities 8 CH4 emissions from wastewater management 7 CO2 emissions from cement production 4

5 In addition to the source categories indicated previously, for the net emissions of Cuba, result of extraordinary importance the carbon absorption s originated by the growth of biomass in forests and other woody biomass reserves. V. Cross Cutting Issues Completeness In general, the prepared inventories cover most direct and indirect greenhouse gases and source categories, and are complete with regard to geographical coverage. The most important source categories reported as not estimated (NE) due to the lack of necessary information are: 2F Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride (of smaller importance for the country) 5D CO 2 emissions and removals from soil Transparency In all prepared inventories are included the NIR 1 with all the worksheets and the sectoral and summary tables from the Workbook and Reporting Instructions of IPCC Guidelines. It is also added a copy of the results in the IPCC software. Most underlying assumptions and rationales for choices of data, methods and other inventory parameters are well explained and documented in the NIR. Uncertainties In all prepared inventories is provided an analysis of uncertainties. The evolution in the applied methods is described below and Qualitative analysis by source category derived from EMEP/CORINAIR method Quantitative analysis by source category using Tier 1 approach. Quantitative analysis by source category using Tier 1 approach Quantitative analysis by source category using Tier 1 approach and Tier 2 using Monte Carlo analysis Recalculations and time-series consistency Recalculations had been undertaken to take into account improvement of methodology, activity data and emission factors and the inclusion of source categories not considered in previous inventories. The main IPCC sectors that have been subject to recalculations are: a) Agriculture, b) Land-use Change and Forestry and Waste. The rationale for these recalculations is provided in the NIR. In the report corresponding to 1996 was included, the update of the emissions previously calculated in the 1990 and 1994 inventories. In the same form, in the report of 1998 were included the updated emissions of the years 1990, 1994 and 1996 and equally in the most recent inventories. Quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC). Basic review of the inventory General Tier 1 QA/QC procedures are implemented. The review of the inventory is made in three levels where participate organisms and institutions of the country as well as an important number of experts not linked directly with the inventory preparation. Also it is carried out a workshop to finish this review 1 National Inventory Report 5

6 process in each inventory. This process needs to be improved in several aspects, among them to explore variants to link, to the review, experts from other countries. Record keeping and archiving Cuba has a centralized archiving system for the inventory preparation. This is maintained and located in the Institute de Meteorology. However, due to financial limitations, this system has not been able to be implemented appropriately. It is one of the aspects that require improvement because it constitutes an important part of the QA/QC activities that are currently implemented. Official Consideration and Approval After the revision at experts' level, is carried out a process for the official consideration and approval of the inventory before submission to UNFCCC. This process involves all the ministries related with the inventory and it is coordinated by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment that is the organism in charge of approving officially the inventory. VI. Areas for further improvement The National GHG Inventory Team has identified the following activities prioritized to improve the inventory. Some are in progress, while others will be developed in dependence of the resources assigned to this activity in the process of preparation of the Second Communication of Cuba to the CMNUCC. Determination of country-specific emission factors (or improvement of those used in previous inventories) and emission parameters in the source categories: a) GHG emissions from stationary combustion; b) CH 4 emissions from domestic livestock and solid waste disposal in land; C) N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils and removals of carbon due to changes in forests. Determination of emissions in source categories reported as NE (not estimated). Introduction of Tier 2 approach for the identification of key sources. Improvement of the system for data transmission/process and documentation archiving. Determination of emissions in some activities of the agricultural sector not tried in the IPCC Guidelines (for example cultivation and process of tobacco) on which we are already working. Introduction of the fundamental elements from IPCC GPG for LULUCF (IPCC, 2003). 6

7 Total aggregate GHG emissions (Gg CO2 eq) Change relative to 1990 (%) Aggregate emissions (Gg CO2 eq) Change relative to 1990 (%) Year -70 Trends in aggregate gross GHG emissions in Cuba (Gg CO 2 -eq), and change relative to (Note: Preliminary results for the year 2000) Emissions (Gg CO2 eq) CO2 CH4 N2O Year Trends in aggregate gross GHG emissions by gases in Cuba (Gg CO 2 -eq), (Note: Preliminary results for the year 2000) 7

8 Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste Emissions (Gg CO2 eq) Year Trends in aggregate gross GHG emissions by sectors in Cuba (Gg CO 2 -eq), (Note: Preliminary results for the year 2000) References 1) IPCC (2003). Penman, J. et al., (Eds). Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (edited by J. Penman et al). Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, 595 pp. 2) IPCC (2000). Penman, J. et al., (Eds). Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. IGES, Japan. 3) IPCC-OECD-IEA, (1997). Houghton J. T., et al., (Eds). Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Volumes I, II, III. 4) López, C., P. V. Fernández, R. W. Manso, A. Wallo, Antonio V. Guevara, M. E. García D. Puente, D. Ramos, Ana M. García, B. R. Díaz, J. J. Alea, D. Pérez, I. López, A. Jam, A. Maestrey, J. Pena, M. O. Martínez. (1999). República de Cuba. Inventario Nacional de Emisiones y Absorciones de Gases de Invernadero. Año CITMA/AMA/Instituto de Meteorología, - CC-TRAIN, La Habana, 401 pp. ISBN: ) López, C., P. V. Fernández, R. W. Manso, A. Wallo, A. V. Guevara, A. León, M. E. García, L. López, E. Martínez, R. Batules, J. J. Alea, K. Socarrás, D. Pérez, I. López (2000). República de Cuba. Inventario Nacional de Emisiones y Absorciones de Gases de Invernadero. Año CITMA/AMA/Instituto de Meteorología- GEF-UNDP, La Habana, 310 pp. ISBN: ) López, C., P. V. Fernández, R. W. Manso A. Wallo, A. V. Guevara, A. León, M. E. García, E. Martínez, G. Legañoa, J. J. Alea, Lic. Ileana López, D. Pérez, J. M. Ameneiros, S. F. Pire. (2002). República de Cuba. Inventario Nacional de Emisiones y Absorciones de Gases de Invernadero. Reporte para el Año 1996 y Actualización para los Años 1990 y CD-ROM Vol. 01. CITMA/AMA/Instituto de Meteorología. La Habana, 320 pp. ISBN:

9 7) López, C., P. V. Fernández, R. W. Manso, A. Wallo, A. V. Guevara, A. León, E. Martínez, L. López, N. Rodríguez, M. Skeen, J. Dávalos, M. E. García,. J. J. Alea, I. López, D. Pérez, S. F. Pire, J. M. Ameneiros. (2003). Determinación de Emisiones y Absorciones de Gases de Invernadero Durante el Año 1998 y Actualización para los Años 1990, 1994 y CITMA/AMA/Instituto de Meteorología, La Habana, 310 pp. 8) López, C., P. V. Fernández, R. W. Manso, A. Wallo, A. León, A. V. Guevara, C. González, S. Mesa, E. Martínez, N. Rodríguez, J. Dávalos, M. E. García, J. J. Alea, R. Biart, I. López, D. Pérez, H. Ricardo, S. F. Pire, A. Mercadet, A. Álvarez. (2004). Determinación de Emisiones y Absorciones de Gases de Invernadero en Cuba Durante el Año 2000 y Actualización para los Años 1990, 1994, 1996 y CITMA/AMA/Instituto de Meteorología. La Habana, 320 pp. 9