Simulation of Circulation and Water Quality in Bellingham Bay

Transcription

1 Simulation of Circulation and Water Quality in Bellingham Bay TARANG KHANGAONKAR & TAIPING WANG Coastal Ocean Modeling Program, Marine Sciences Division State of Bellingham Bay Research Symposium, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 1/22/2015 March 6,

2 Salish Sea Model PNNL / Ecology / EPA Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Salish Sea Model (SSM) - Grid Surface salinity, 24-hr simulation April, 2006 Example Model Specifications Hydrodynamic Model FVCOM (Chen et al 2003) 3-D Baroclinic 10-layers, sigma coordinates Boundaries Strait of Juan de Fuca Strait of Georgia S, T, and Elevation Meteorology UW WRF Model Hydrology River flows Watershed models Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-ICM / USACE FVCOM-ICM (Kim and Khangaonkar 2011) Nutrients, phytoplankton/algae, carbon, DO,. 19 variables Benthic fluxes Boundary loads based on DFO monitoring data Point source loads (99) Salish Sea Model (Khangaonkar et al. 2011, 2012) 2

3 Salish Sea Model application Effect of future hydrology & loads Future climate assessment (UW/CIG) GCM simulations of IPCC AR4 scenarios (B1, B2, A1B, B2, A1F1) downscaled VIC hydrologic model application (A1B) Periods & Year % flow increase from 2006 Future nutrient pollution loads (Ecology) Hydrologic analysis (Year 2070) Projected watershed use Projected population growth 100% increase of marine point source loads 40% increase in watershed loads Flow, m3/s Puget Sound Inflow, m3/s Georgia Basin Inflow, m3/s Total Inflow, m3/s Year Hamlet et al. (2010), Lee and Hamlet (2013) Mohamedali et al. (2013) - Nutrient Loads Khangaonkar et al DO Model Roberts et al. (2014) - Ecology report on model scenarios odel.html 3

4 Salish Sea Model application Effect of projected sea level rise (SLR) [National Research Council Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future] 4

5 Effect on estuarine exchange flow Inflow of ocean water to Salish Sea Exchange flow into Strait of Juan de Fuca loads and 2070 SLR of 0.77 m Increase 4% Exchange flow into Puget Sound loads and 2070 SLR of 0.77 m Increase 5% 5

6 Effect on salinity Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR loads Ocean] 6

7 Future projections of DO and nitrate Pacific Ocean boundary Parameter Source Dissolved Oxygen ( mg/l/yr) mg/l mg/l mg/l Pierce et al. (2012) and Whitney et al. (2007) Nitrate Ecology analysis ( mg/l/yr) mg/l mg/l mg/l Temperature 0.14 C 0.34 C 0.64 C Whitney et al. (2007) (0.01 C/yr) Salinity* ( PSU/yr) PSU PSU PSU Whitney et al. (2007) [Roberts et al Puget Sound and the Straits Dissolved Oxygen Assessment. Impacts of Current and Future Human Nitrogen Sources and Climate Change through Ecology Publication No ] 7

8 Effect on (NO 3 +NO 2 ) Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR loads Ocean] 8

9 Effect on DO Bellingham Bay [0.77 m SLR loads Ocean] 9

10 Salish Sea Model application Flushing analysis Estimate of residence time Bellingham Bay Day 1 e-folding flushing / residence test 194 days Day 8 Day 194 March 6,

11 High Resolution Bellingham Bay Model (Bellingham Bay Action Team) Simulation of Oceanographic Parameters in Bellingham Bay Improve understanding of fish migration pathways Oceanographic Data Collection Hart Crowser (August 2009) June 10 to June 26, 2009 Survey Data Nooksack Bathymetry Tidal Elevations (T1-T7) Currents (C1-C4) Temperature Salinity T-S profiles during deployment and recovery Bathymetry and cross sections near Nooksack River mouth March 6,

12 Bellingham Bay Hydrodynamic Model - Fine scale grid Node = 19,301, Elements = 35,458, cell size = 20 m to 100 m Nooksack tide flats lidar data

13 Model calibration Tide Currents Salinity Temperature East Velocity (m/s) Station C3 - Surface Layer Data Model North Velocity (m/s) Station C3 - Surface Layer Data Model /10/09 6/14/09 6/18/09 6/22/09 6/26/09 6/10/09 6/14/09 6/18/09 6/22/09 6/26/09 Wang T, Yang Z, and T Khangaonkar Development of a Hydrodynamic and Transport Model of Bellingham Bay in Support of Nearshore Habitat Restoration. PNNL March 6,

14 Model Results River Plume Animation

15 Particle tracking fish migration / oil spill pathways Simulation using NOAA GNOME Oil Spill Modeling Environment March 6,

16 Summary / Discussion Salish Sea Model (SSM) / Bellingham Bay Sub-basin Existing scenarios , 2007, and 2008 Future SLR and climate scenarios - Y2020, Y2040, Y2070 Bellingham Bay Model (BHM) high resolution model (2009) Intertidal hydrodynamics Oil spill / particle tracking tool Characterization of influence of Fraser River Accurate computation of residence / flushing time Fish like particle / larvae tracking Other research applications development needs Local effects of nutrients and sediment loads Sediment diagenesis effects ph / ocean acidification impacts Submerged aquatic vegetation / eel grass March 6,