AIR QUALITY and CLIMATE CHANGE THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS? Prof. Martin Williams

Transcription

1 AIR QUALITY and CLIMATE CHANGE THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS? Prof. Martin Williams King s College London 15 th IUAPPA World Clean Air Congress 15 IUAPPA World Clean Air Congress Vancouver September 2010

2 Air quality and Climate Change Both are important and are caused by common sources A rational approach suggests common, or at least very closely co-ordinated, management This tends not to happen This talk explores reasons for this failure presents arguments for common management suggests some solutions 2

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4 Air Quality is still a problem - London Smog 2003 vintage Ozone Nitrogen dioxide Particles Picture Michael Fresco 4

5 Particles The health impact of current levels of air pollution in the UK is valued at a cost of 15 billions per annum (range 8-17 Bn); Reduces life expectancy for the whole UK population by ~6 months 5

6 Particles also pose problems world-wide: Brown Cloud over the Ganges delta 6

7 Indoor cooking practices in Asia pose health problems and add to global l emissions i 7

8 Deaths attributed to 19 leading risk factors by country income level, 2004 (WHO Global Health Risks 2009) 8

9 Environmental risks from WHO Global Health Risks, WHO

10 Summer 2003 Episode health risks in Europe Ozone Nitrogen dioxide Particles Picture Michael Fresco 10

11 Pollution Episode 4-13 August 2003 Excess Deaths in England and Wales 202 PM Ozone 1276 Other causes Source: Stedman, J.R.; Atmospheric Environment,

12 Anticipated Increase in UK Summer Temperatures: By the 2040s Summer 2003 will be normal 2003 Temperat ture anoma aly (wrt ) C C observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) s 2060s 12 Hadley Centre

13 Crop yield loss due to ozone, 2000 (van Dingenen et al,2009) 13

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15 Ozone is a global problem - world-wide Sources of UK Ozone (Derwent, Atm. Env, 2008) Europe-regional North America Asia Europe-intercontinental Extra-continental O3, ppb Stratosphere /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ / 10/ / 11/ / 12/

16 Global biodiversity loss is global -concentrated in tropical regions and non-oecd countries 16

17 Drivers of biodiversity loss-air emissions important and growing 17

18 Air pollution is a significant problem world wide It is intimately linked to climate change in terms of sources and possible impacts Optimal solutions are ideally required 18

19 AQ Good CC Bad Flue Gas Desulphurisation Three Way Catalysts- t Petrol Particulate Filters- Diesel Uncontrolled coal and oil fossil fuels in stationary and mobile sources Energy Efficiency Demand Management Nuclear Wind, solar, tidal... Hybrids, L & Z EVs CCS Increase in uncontrolled diesel Some Biofuels Biomass CHP Buying credits overseas CC Good 19 AQ Bad

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21 UK AQ Strategy analysis of measure for early incentivisation of Euro 5/VI-thresholds of 0 & 50ppb 8-hr 21

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23 UK Climate Change Act 2008 The UK has incorporated a target of 80% reduction in CO 2 equivalents by 2050 (on a 1990 base) Choosing optimal technologies (Scenario A) purely on climate change considerations gives benefits of ~ 15 billion BUT incorporating air quality co-benefits (Scenario B) gives much bigger co-benefits ~ 40 billion in total 23

24 MARKAL modelling of the benefits of integrating Air Quality and Climate Change policies in the UK 24

25 But the initial stages are not easy! 25

26 Impact on UK NO x emissions of the Low Carbon Transition Plan in

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28 Air quality and climate links in UK policy document

29 Optimal policies for the Atmosphere(Raes & Seinfeld, 2009) In the long term to 2050+, aggressive climate policies should be optimal and benefit both climate and air quality We need to manage the trade-offs in the short - medium term to get us over the bumpy road - much of the scientific and policy challenges are here 29

30 CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION 51 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia 30

31 CLRTAP Protocols 1984 EMEP Protocol 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols 1988 NOx Protocol 1991 VOC Protocol 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol 1998 POP Protocol 1999 Gothenburg Protocol to abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground level Ozone(NO x x, SO 2 2, VOCs, NH 3 31

32 CLRTAP has already begun to work at the interface between air quality and climate change issues 32

33 Established Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution In 2009 established Expert Group on Black Carbon to make first institutional links between Climate Change and Air Pollution America America H H Eur ope Asi a H L 33

34 Current activities on SLCFs CLRTAP Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution reports in December 2010 CLRTAP Expert Group on Black Carbon reports in December 2010 CLRTAP is discussing inclusion of PM in Gothenburg Protocol UNEP Global Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric p Ozone reports early in 2011 US EPA report on Black Carbon response to call from Senate Now is the time to begin thinking in practical terms about approaches to managing these pollutants internationally But it will not be easy! 34

35 Scientific/economic challenges in incorporating air pollutants/slcfs in global climate agreements Existing agreements use GWP100-not ideal for SLCFs Regional impacts of SLCFs are important-arctic, Himalaya Location of emission matters for SLCFs, so controls don t sit comfortably with emission trading Knowledge of radiative forcing/climate impacts of SLCFs is uncertain Impacts on health, crops and ecosystems is better quantified 35

36 Policy challenges in management of Air Pollutants/SLCFs t Including in global instrument(s) would add complexity to an already difficult process Comparing and weighing short term and longer term impacts is difficult Local pollution impacts more important for developing countries? Managing trade-offs ( +ve and ve forcings) in one instrument is difficult Global climate mechanisms heavily reliant on trading not appropriate for SLCFs (but CDM could be incentivised to favour local air quality improvements) 36

37 Possible global models for managing air pollutants/slcfs cf Holloway et al, 2003; Rypdal et al 2005, Nemet et al 2010) One basket with GHGs (difficult GWP 100 etc) Pollutants separate (still need comparators with GHGs) Two baskets GHGs & SLCFs easier but adds complexity Global Air Pollution instrument? 37

38 A Regional approach may offer the best prospects-at tleast tinitiallyiti Politically ll more feasible? Co-benefits of air quality mitigation are large Simple and comprehensible Could link wth global climate agreements e.g. By setting long term air pollution goals commensurate with long term GHG commitments (cf UK 80% reduction by 2050) Instruments already exist and could be used - CLRTAP 38

39 How do we deliver a solution? Scientific and economic co-operation between regions is crucial (already begun in CLRTAP Task Force on Hemispheric Transport-global inputs; work of GAP Forum too) HTAP recommends confederation of regional networks Links with climate science and economics needed Need to engage the policy processes in all continents too but how? Incorporate SLCFs in CLRTAP as a first step Open CLRTAP to wider participation? (there are precedents) Eventually a global air pollution convention? 39

40 Thank you! Merci bien! 40