Entering the Ecological Age

Transcription

1 Entering the Ecological Age The role of science and technology in creating a sustainable economic future for New Zealand Peter Head OBE FREng FRSA November 2010 Director Arup Chairman Institute for Sustainability

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3 ecological age Can we move towards a sustainable way of living? What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries? What is the role of the science and technology in supporting this transition to an Ecological Age? 3

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6 New Zealand can aim to be the first nation to be truly sustainable across the four pillars of the economy, society, the environment, and nationhood to be carbon neutral.we have to make a stand for our world, and for our own sake. Former Prime Minister Helen Clarke in her first major speech to Parliament in

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9 Our Shrinking Earth YEAR Hectares of Land Per Capita 9

10 (CO 50%) GHA/Capita + Ecological Footprint HDI Increase Human Development Index = 2050 Ecological Age 10

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12 Middle to high income countries Transition from industrial to ecological age City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-rural resource flows Model-London, San fransisco Climate Change Action Plans Freiburg, Malmo, Stockholm 12

13 FOOD RAW MATERIALS Resource Efficiency ENERGY WATER 13

14 14 CONCLUSIONS FROM COPENHAGEN COP 15

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16 Wherever you look, the footprint of climate change is bringing people to a situation where resources are increasingly scarce and forcing them to move. NICK NUTTALL, UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME Niutao Island, Tuvalu 16

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18 Energy Consumption IMF, BP 18

19 140 Fuel and Energy Prices: Coal World energy council survey of energy resources, 2007 Coal prices rise: $ per tonne 20 19

20 20 Oil Reserves Have Peaked Energy Watch Group. Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook. EWG-Series No3/2007 October 2007.

21 21 UN Contraction and Convergence GCI Text Modified: Pacific Ecologist 2007

22 22 Power supply in China

23 New Zealand s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Ministry for the Environment (2005b) 78 Gg Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (Thousands) Smokestack JupiterImages UK Ltd 23

24 Per Capita Emissions Due to Agricultural Production UNFCCC ( ). Agriculture and Farming, Otago Phillip Capper Creative Commons 24

25 Rice Fields China mckaysavage FlickR Tons CO2 Emissions (Bn) Per Capita Total Tonnes of CO2 Emissions (Bn) Per Capita Energy Information Administration 25 U.S.A CHINA

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27 AT BioPower Pitchit, Thailand 27

28 28 Supergrid Vision TREC

29 29 Australian Emissions Reductions Trajectories to 2050 (Per Capita Reduction) Source- Garnaut Climate Change Review, Final Report, 30 September 2008

30 You just can't run an economy like this. If we get through to the end of winter without blackouts; it was all done by the skin of our teeth. Phil O'Reilly, Chief Executive of Business, New Zealand Clyde Dam PhillipC -Flickr 30

31 Gathering and Using Energy Efficiently Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 90% of New Zealand s energy are to come from renewable sources by 2050 NEW ZEALAND ENERGY STRATEGY TO

32 Wellington Nition1-CreativeCommons 32

33 160 World Biofuel Consumption IEA. World Energy Outlook WORLD BRAZIL 100 CHINA EU Danny Masson_WikimediaCommons USA 20 Mtoe 33

34 34 Remain in Balance with the Biosphere Main Elements of a Short Carbon Cycle System. CPI / Arup Joint Study

35 : Press Office City of Munster, Germany 35

36 City development to be public transport led Electric traction for city mass transit plus inter-city high speed rail Underground metros preferred to buses Ethanol from coal (with carbon capture) to provide fuel for cars in short term 36 Transition to

37 37 Transport & Urban Density Adapted from Kenworthy 2003

38 38 Emissions Reduction Opportunities in the Transport Sector Ministry of Economic Development

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41 URBAN RAIL-TRAM-METRO Investment 1% city GDP per year 41

42 42 China investment % GDP

43 THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GT OF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture) 5 Gt for Energy Effiency 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply 43

44 Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial / industrial sector Contribution to overall reduction More efficient supply of heat/electricity 50% Improvements to physical infrastructure Behavioural change (switching off lights etc) More energy efficient new builds 20% 25% 5% 44

45 The Total Community Retrofit Model 45 Replicatio n Green affordable homes Comprehensive and integrated solutions Low carbon municipal infrastructure Improved public spaces Ground source heat pumps public sector income Towns redesigned around pedestrians and cyclists Integrated urban agriculture One managed programme Low carbon energy supply and distributed energy High performing, energy efficient buildings Cleaner air Community information systems Alleviating fuel poverty Goods and services to support a low carbon lifestyle Revitalized town centres Water manageme nt Extensive public transportation network fueled by clean energy Active, engaged and proud communities Behavioral and education awareness Delivered through large scale private financing car clubs Electric vehicle infrastructure Demonstration Zero landfilling of waste Green jobs and business growth Improving health Common delivery mechanism

46 46 Integrated Resource Management Master Plan Linking the overarching masterplan to the technical disciplines Water supply Energy Food Production Wastewater Transport Economics Waste Management Logistics Others Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements

47 Arup s IRM Platform GIS IRM Link IRM Tech. Plan Strategies 47

48 48 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)

49 49 Decreasing Food Supply Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States

50 50 Global Water Availability International Water Management Institute

51 I think the drought [last year] was a key reason why we were in recession in the first half of 2008 Doug Steel, Westpac Economist Drought Peripitus - GFDL 51

52 52 Farming in a Warmer World Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country by William R. Cline, Peterson Institute April

53 53 Sustainable Agriculture Wanzhuang Eco-City

54 Clean up not pollute Central Otago Wine Vinyard Karinl-FreeSoftwareFoundation 54

55 55 Raw Material Consumption EAA C. Sperlinger, Nachhaltige Stadtentwicklung beginnt im Quartier OeKoinstiut e.v (Ed) Freiburg, 1999 in Drivers of Change: Waste, Arup 2008

56 56 Materials and Waste Hillier, Graham. Construction Products for a Sustainable Society Sustainability - Steel and the Environment Conference. 2 November 2004

57 Materials and Waste Drivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008) Cradle to cradle TM 57

58 Run On Information 58

59 SAO PAULO low carbon regeneration Flickr francisco antunes 59

60 Urban Information Architecture BIM IRM 3D 4D 5D Virtual Reality Collaboration ITS RFID Broadband WiMAX CCTV ANPR Parking BMS Control Rooms Specifications D&B contracts RIBA Tools Form and Infrastructure Management 60

61 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group Clinton Climate Positive Initiative accelerate carbon emissions reductions Addis Ababa, Athens, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Caracas, Chicago, Copenhagen,Delhi, Dhaka, Hanoi, Ho Chi Min, Houston, Hong Kong, Istanbul, Jakarta, Johannesburg, Karachi, Lagos, Lima, London, Los Angeles, Madrid, Melbourne, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Philadelphia, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Warsaw National Flags Phillipminnis Dreamstime.com 61

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63 Sustainability Cities Institutes London, Shanghai Cape Town, Melbourne Shanghai Cape Town 63

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65 Thank you But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time