Climate knowledge and hydropower in Latin America. Sebastián Vicuña WCRP-LAC Montevideo, Marzo, 2014

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1 Climate knowledge and hydropower in Latin America Sebastián Vicuña WCRP-LAC Montevideo, Marzo, 2014

2 Agenda The role of hydropower in Latin America Climate knowledge and hydropower Conclusions

3 Hydropower is by far the most important source of electricity in Latin America Varas (2013) with data from IEA (2011)

4 With a relative importance higher than anywhere in the world Percentage of hidro generation 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% IEA (2012) Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru Guatemala Costa Rica Latin America OECD N. America OEDC Pacific OECD Europe Asia Africa World

5 With still a lot of untapped potential to develop SRREN; IPCC, 2011

6 Large hydropower projects in Latin America Varas 2013

7 Agenda The role of hydropower in Latin America Climate knowledge and hydropower Conclusions

8 The water-energy-climate nexus is evident when we consider hydropower generation Relation between precipitation and relative hydropower generation in central Chile MAPS-Chile, 2014

9 The water-energy-climate nexus is evident when we consider hydropower generation Relation between precipitation and Chile generation system CO 2 emission factor Generation system Hydropower 10* Coal 1000 Natural Gas 500 * Depends on type and location of HP system Emissions (g CO2/kWh) MAPS-Chile, 2014

10 Climate change impacts could reshape the value of hydropower

11 Climate change impacts could reshape the value of hydropower

12 Climate change impacts could reshape the value of hydropower

13 Climate change impacts could reshape the value of hydropower New approaches to environmental impact assessment (need for reassessment) Uncertainty in future GHG emissions (risk in commitments)

14 Chilean total electricity related emissions considering climate change (among other sources of) uncertainty MAPS-Chile, 2014

15 Climate change impacts could reshape the value of hydropower New approaches to environmental impact assessment (need for reassessment) Uncertainty in future GHG emissions (risk in commitments) Hydropower systems reoperation

16 Maule system Potential: 870 MW Laguna Maule: Mm3. Laja system Potential: 1150 MW Lago Laja: Mm3

17 Maule system Potential: 870 MW Laguna Maule: Mm Historic levels Laguna Maule (1st May) (in m) Laja system Potential: 1150 MW Lago Laja: Mm Historic levels Lago Laja (1st May) (in m)

18 Maule system Potential: 870 MW Laguna Maule: Mm3. Operation agreement between Agriculture and Hydropower from 1947! Laja system Potential: 1150 MW Lago Laja: Mm3 Operation agreement between Agriculture and Hydropower from 1958!

19 Climate change mitigation (renewable energy) could reshape the value of hydropower Renewable energy share in total primary energy Region Share of renewables total generation Share of variable* renewables in total generation Latin America 69.0% 71.0% 0.4% 6.2% World 20.3% 31.3% 2.2% 10.0% * Solar PV and wind Renewables-based capacity additions Renewable Energy Outlook, IEA, 2013

20 Wind power (wind speed) is more variable than hydropower (water availability) at fine time scales Comparison between wind speed and streamflow timeseries at annual and daily scales (Maipo basin central Chile) Anomaly 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Annual wind speed and streamflow Anomaly 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Daily wind speed and streamflow 1-Ene 21-Ene 10-Feb 2-Mar 22-Mar 11-Abr 1-May 21-May 10-Jun 30-Jun 20-Jul 9-Ago 29-Ago 18-Sep 8-Oct 28-Oct 17-Nov 7-Dic 27-Dic Wind speed Streamflow Wind speed Streamflow

21 Climate change mitigation (NCRE) could reshape the value of hydropower Hydropower ability to quickly react to changes in demand (wind driven supply) would be more valuable in the future Needs to more refined real time climate forecast in electricity grid dispatch

22 Spain (with 20% of wind power coverage provides interesting experience) Demand forecast and generation mix in real time Wind power generation in real time

23 Conclusions Hydropower plays and will play a significant role in the future of Latin America (more than anywhere) At three distinct time scales (daily, decadal, climate change) there are clear niches for new climate knowledge needed to meet this challenge

24 Gracias Araucarias en el PN Nahuelbuta