Preparing ports for the storm: How can seaports prepare for sea-level rise?

Transcription

1 Preparing ports for the storm: How can seaports prepare for sea-level rise? Robert J. Nicholls and Susan Hanson University of Southampton, UK Acknowledgement: Shipping in Changing Climates (EP/K039253/1)

2 Key Coastal Trends Population o Growing coastal population (double global trends) o Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban) o Increasing tourism, recreation and retirement Increasing assets and infrastructure linked to population and wealth trends Subsiding, densely-populated deltas and alluvial plains, especially in urban areas subject to drainage and groundwater withdrawal Globalisation of trade and international shipping routes Degrading coastal habitats and declining ecosystem services, including natural protection Climate change and sea-level rise A reactive approach to adaptation Increasingly costly coastal disasters due to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., tsunami) causes (integrative symptom of the above?)

3 Key Coastal Trends Population o Growing coastal population (double global trends) o Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban) o Increasing tourism, recreation and retirement Increasing assets and infrastructure linked to population and wealth trends Subsiding, densely-populated deltas and alluvial plains, especially in urban areas subject to drainage and groundwater withdrawal Globalisation of trade and international shipping routes Degrading coastal habitats and declining ecosystem services, including natural protection Climate change and sea-level rise A reactive approach to adaptation Increasingly costly coastal disasters due to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., tsunami) causes (integrative symptom of the above?)

4 Flooding of Port of Immingham, UK 5/6 December 2013

5 Global vs. Relative (Local) Sea-Level Rise Source: Figure Chapter 13 IPCC AR5 WG1 Report

6 Number of events per 100 years Change in Return Period of present 100-year event New York Shanghai Kolkata ,5 1 Relative Sea-Level Rise (m)

7 Potential effect of rising (relative) sea levels Port subsidence and response due to the 2011 Japanese Earthquake (Courtesy of Dr Miguel Esteban, University of Tokyo)

8 Shipping in Changing Climates Examining shipping in a 2 o C and 4 o C warmer world: Emission control technologies Legislation and regulation Changes in trade demand to 2050 including climate implications Consequences of climate change such as relative sea-level rise

9 Shipping in Changing Climates High Road scenario (4⁰C) Climate projection - based on RCP8.5 high GHG emissions Population projection strong growth (based on SSP5-conventional) Trade narrative high economic growth, reliant on fossil fuels, strongly globalised market Green Road scenario (2⁰C) Climate projection - based on RCP2.6 low GHG emissions Population projection lower growth (based on SSP1-sustainability) Trade narrative med-high economic growth, move away from fossil fuels, connected markets, regional production

10 Changes to ports Method Increased area demand (growing trade) and increased sea level impacts Global methodology flow chart to determine costs for adaptation of 2010 areas to relative sealevel rise and building of additional areas

11 Global area demand (km 2 ) to 2050 High Road (4⁰C) Green Road (2⁰C)

12 Regional port costs (US$ million) from 2010 to 2050 HR High Road GR Green Road New build >95% of costs in all cases Post-2050 adaptation costs probably grow

13 National variation in demand for new port area High Road 4⁰C scenario ( )

14 Sea-level rise impacts (4⁰C scenario) Reduction in design standard for port protection infrastructure by 2100

15 Conclusions Sea-level rise threatens increased flooding and storm damage of all port areas. The risk is rising regardless of the scenario: the uncertainty is the rate of increase. There are several responses: Maximise flood warning and preparedness be ready for adverse situations. Include freeboard and flexibility in new port build. Consider how to upgrade new ports, especially during renewal phases. Look wider than the port flooding may disrupt the networks within which the port sits adaptation needs to be joined up with the port s neighbours. Consider other climate issues wind, waves, etc.

16 Preparing ports for the storm: How can seaports prepare for sea-level rise? Robert J. Nicholls and Susan Hanson University of Southampton, UK Acknowledgement: Shipping in Changing Climates (EP/K039253/1)