Resource Adequacy Modeling update. Technical Workgroup #4 June 14, 2018 AESO External

Transcription

1 Resource Adequacy Modeling update Technical Workgroup #4 June 14, 2018

2 Demand Curve Workgroup Objective: AESO Resource Adequacy Model Through the WG process, AESO seeks workgroup members review and feedback on the methodology, key inputs, and outputs of the AESO resource adequacy modeling that will determine the amount of capacity required to meet the defined reliability standard. Through the review feedback, acceptance is sought from the workgroup to validate that the AESO is using: Reasonable assumptions and methodologies Clear transparent process Industry standard practices Today we will review some changes to the Resource Adequacy Model (RAM) and review the latest draft outputs.

3 Agenda Changes to RAM Updated Draft Results EUE (Annual and Monthly) LOLH EEA Hours 2017 Model Calibration Next Steps

4 Areas the AESO has Investigated and Adjusted Adjusted cogeneration aggregation to only include cogeneration units Created seasonal cogeneration distribution higher cogeneration availability in winter than in summer

5 Areas the AESO has Investigated and Adjusted Discussions with Specific Workgroup members The AESO has collaborated with market participants with regards to wind profiles and hydro modeling to understand and address expressed concerns. Adjusted the Emergency Hydro capacity to up to 150 MW Rescheduled manual maintenance periods in response to model adjustments

6 Updated Draft Results The updated base case was run for the reference period Nov 2021 Oct 2022 The anticipated base generation fleet MC is 18,197 MW plus MC increments of reference technology The resource adequacy metrics were aggregated into single values by calculating the weighed average of all cases Generation Fleet Maximum Capacity (MW) Procurement Volume in UCAP (MW) %NEUE EUE (MWh) LOLE Capacity (Events per Year) LOLH Capacity (Hours) Base 9, % 2, RM1 (+95) 9, % 1, RM2 (+190) 9, % RM3 (+285) 9, % RM4 (+380) 9, % RM5 (+475) 9, % RM6 (+570) 9, % RM7 (+665) 9, % RM8 (+760) 9, % RM9 (+855) 9, % RM10 (+950) 9, % RM11 (+1,045) 9, % RM12 (+1,140) 9, % RM13 (+1,235) 9, % RM14 (+1,330) 10, %

7 Procurement Volume Translation RAM Output - Performance Self-Supply & Ineligible Implied Gross 865 EUE (MW) Factor UCAP (MW) UCAP (MW) UCAP (MW) Coal 5,430 79% 4, ,290 Cogen 4,935 27% 1,309 1,686 2,995 CC 1,748 65% 1, ,284 REP Wind 1,296 0% Wind 1,445 14% Intertie 1,100 51% SC % Hydro % Other % Generic Build % Solar 15 50% Total 18,387 50% 9,148 2,197 11,344

8 Procurement Volume Translation 20,000 18,000 MW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Perf. Above Cap. Mkt. Obligation Ineligible Resources (REP Wind) Self-Supply Solar REP Wind Wind Generic Build Other Hydro SC Intertie CC Cogen Coal 2021 Winter Peak 2022 Summer Peak 2021/22 AIL over 250 Tightest Hours 0 Maximum Capability Procurement Volume

9 Updated Draft Results The increased need for procurement volumes for all levels of EUE, is mainly due to the redefined cogeneration distributions which have decreased availability during the summer and increased availability in winter. Expected Unserved Energy by Reserve Margin 2,500 2,000 Initial_Run_EUE_Capacity June_4_Run_EUE_Capacity EUE - MWh 1,500 1, Procurement Volume (MW)

10 Updated Draft Results Annual Hour Count Loss of Load Hours and EEA Event Hours Initial_Run_LOLH_Capacity June_4_Run_EEA_Event_Hours Initial_Run_LOLH_Capacity June_4_Run_EEA_Event_Hours Procurement Volume (MW)

11 Updated Draft Results Monthly Monthly EUE distribution Initial Run;RM1 (809 EUE) June_4_Run;RM2; (865 EUE) EUE (Mwh) The updated results show a smoother distribution of monthly outage events, representing tight supply conditions that are feasible anytime of year. The higher December observations are due to the load forecast being on average 150 MW s higher in December than any other month.

12 2017 Calibration Set Up As part of the validation process the AESO has used the current version of the model to simulate actual 2017 resource mix and load Simulated this case with 200 outage draws to provide a distribution of reliability outcomes The model uses outage draws from parameters based on events that occurred in the previous 5-year period 2017 Calibration Min Average Max Actual EUE (MWh) ,050 0 LOLH (Hours) EEA Event (Hours) (2 events)

13 2017 Calibration Draft Results In 6% of the runs the models produced positive unserved energy The outage draw with the poorest reliability showed 1,050 MWh of EUE 1, Calibration (200 Iterations) 1,000 EUE - MWh % of Iterations

14 Generation Mix differences Generation mix differences between the 2017 Calibration and the 2022 AESO Base Case. Coal units Sundance 1 & 2, HR Milner and Battle River 3 are retired (853 MW total) Brooks Solar (15 MW) is online CMH1 MC was increased from 210 MW to 255 MW 1,295.6 MW of wind is added to the system to align with announced and expected REP 1,2,3 projects

15 Next Steps AESO generally comfortable with model and outputs The AESO will continue to review and validate the draft results and look to improve the model as needed Some continued areas of validation and minor refinements Refine and test alternate intertie distributions Create and test seasonal forced outages Any outstanding concerns from workgroup members?

16 Thank You