The Strategic Relevance of Advanced Predictive Capacity

Transcription

1 The Strategic Relevance of Advanced Predictive Capacity David Grimes President of WMO Co-chair WMO Panel of Experts on Polar and High mountain Observations, Research and Services (EC-PHORS) Year of Polar Prediction Summit Geneva, Switzerland Monday, July

2 Outline GIPPS GCW EC-PHORS mandate Integrating operational and research networks in Polar and High Mountain regions within the WIS and WIGOS framework Linking research to support services Analysis of user needs & the development of the Polar Regional Climate Centre concept Canadian activities and perspectives. IPPI WIS & WIGOS framework AntON 2

3 EC-PHORS Mandate Broad Scope Value-added chain from Acquisition, Exchange, Product development, Service delivery user requirements, technologies, standards observation gaps (e.g., polar oceans, snow cover) configuration / interoperability with other polar observing networks WIS/WIGOS compliance sustainability Challenges - Remote and hostile environments Operational and financial Varied and complex organizational structures 3

4 Imperatives for Polar and High Mountain activities Enhance and optimize observing networks; e.g. Global Cryosphere Watch / AntON Research to improve understanding of key processes and dynamics that drive polar weather and climate; Improved understanding feeds into models to advance the operational weather forecasts and climate projections; Advanced data assimilation systems; All leading to improved services through knowledge transfer and capacity development to maximize the value from investments. 4

5 Polar and High Mountain Activities are highly leveraged Technical Commissions Members Regional Associations ATCM COMNAP IAATO IICWG SCAR IASC IACS FARO ICIMOD IOC AC Collaborative activities leading to improved predictive capability in Polar and High Mountain Regions 5

6 International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI) IPPI Interagency Steering Group (ISG) Current draft of Concept Document on IPPI finalized February 2014; WMO approach is that GCW, GIPPS and Arctic HYCOS remain tangible contributions to the IPPI and to ensure the concept; clearly articulates activities and tangible outcomes that are inexpensive to implement; addresses WMO objectives; articulates benefits to national programmes 6

7 Global Recognition that changes in the cryosphere can have significant impacts The Global Earth System: Sea level rise Climate Ocean circulation Atmospheric circulation Regional and local impacts: Natural resources and hazards Ecosystems Food production and fisheries Infrastructure Transportation Recreation GHG emissions 7

8 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System Global: International effort & poles have global impacts Integrated: Interconnection between systems (research, observations and services) Polar Prediction System: Improving predictive capacity is key 8

9 Jung et al Hamill, pers. comm. GIPPS Short-term Prediction WWRP Polar Prediction Project Arctic opening comes with opportunities and risks! Better Arctic forecasts Better predictions in midlatitudes and tropics Photo from Llodys report Coming up: Photo by Chilean Navy/Reuters Data gaps and model deficits cause poor forecasts in polar regions Error reduction of subseasonal forecasts with improved Arctic predictions (mid-2017 mid-2019) Uncertainty of near-surface temperature initial conditions (K) 9

10 GIPPS Medium-term Prediction WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative PCPI Initiatives 1. Improve knowledge and understanding of past polar climate variations (up to 100-years) 2. Assess reanalyses in polar regions 3. Improve understanding of polar climate predictiability on seasonal to decadal timescales Lead: S. Gilles, J. Jones Lead: D. Bromwhich, J. Renwick Lead: J. Fyfe, E. Hawkins 4. Assess performance of CMIP models in polar regions 5. Model error 6. Improve how jets and non-zonal circulation couple to the rest of the system in the Southern Hemisphere Lead: H. Goosse, J. Kay Lead: M. Jochum, G. Svensson Lead: G. Marshall, M. Raphael 10

11 GIPPS Long-term Prediction Ice mass balance and sea level Relates to WCRP Grand Challenges Changes in Cryosphere and Regional sea-level rise Addressed by CliC Implementation Plan in development 11

12 And there are global benefits... Advances in the Poles will lead to improvements in weather forecasts, climate predictions, and ultimately better services for lower latitude regions. Innovation through insights gained through service development for culturally unique populations and highly sensitive and specialized industries 12

13 Need rapid transference of R&D into operational domain 13

14 Services anchor the work Interface with users, including research community, polar and high mountain peoples and economic sectors. Ensure the concept of GIPPS is responsive to user requirements 14

15 Service Development SIDARUS Questionnaire GCW Website globalcryospherewatch.org Services White Paper Survey of marine customers in the Arctic 15

16 User requirements Survey of marine customers in the Arctic Source: White Paper, EC-PHORS Services Task Team 16

17 Supporting Decision-Making with Climate Information Climate records inform building infrastructure design codes and standards Integrate the atmospheric, terrestrial (including hydrology) and marine cryosphere Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) within GCOS Seasonal and inter-annual climate predictions provide statistics of various climate variables and inform adaptive strategies 17

18 Polar Regional Climate Centre Network - Arctic Scoping Workshop November 17-19, 2015 Geneva PRCC Mandatory functions: operational activities for long range forecasts (LRF); operational activities for climate monitoring; operational data services to support LRF and climate monitoring; and training in the use of operational RCC products and services. Highly Recommended Functions climate prediction and climate projection; non-operational data services; coordination functions; training and capacity development; research and development 18

19 Canadian Activities and Perspectives Canada s Northern Strategy 19

20 Potential Environment Canada - YOPP Contributions Observations for assimilation and verification Operational support Coupled Atmosphere-Ice- Ocean Prediction System Improved models and data assimilation Observing system evaluations Improved Products (NAVTEX, WMS) Ensemble forecasting 20

21 Focus for Canada Polar Knowledge Canada consists of: a Pan-northern Science and Technology program, a Knowledge Management and Mobilization function, and the Canadian High Arctic Research Station being built in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut. ( Environment Canada s Predictions of ice free and freeze-up dates from CanSIPS 21

22 Anomaly correlation ice free day (SIC<0.5) (orange/red=significant at 95%) CanSIPS has skill predicting ice free date up to 2-3 months in advance Mean ice free date 22

23 Anomaly correlation freeze-up day (SIC>0.5) (orange/red=significant at 95%) CanSIPS has skill predicting freeze up date up to 2-3 months in advance Mean freeze-up date 23

24 Monitoring & Predicting Changes in Sea Ice Loss of sea ice Canada s Northwest Passage high variability in ice cover Requirements for service becoming year round International concern for safety in Arctic marine environment and environmental protection 24

25 Ensuring Safe Transportation MET/NAV - GMDSS Aviation Weather Services for Transport Canada and NAV Canada Canadian Ice Service (CIS) provides ice charts and forecasts in support of: Canadian Coast Guard Ship routing CCG Icebreaking operations ISTOP (Integrated Satellite Tracking of Pollution) Use of RADARSAT imagery is key to ice surveillance and has co-benefits in allowing for detection of accidental or illegal oil dumping at sea 25

26 Canadian High Arctic Research Station (CHARS) Construction is Underway Housing Field & Maintenance Building Main Research Building Construction of the Canadian High Arctic Research Station (CHARS) will be completed by 2017 CHARS will anchor the network of research infrastructure across the North and make a significant contribution to Canada s Northern Strategy 26 26

27 A Pan-Northern S&T Program A world-class science and technology program invites international cooperation Current priorities for : Based on the mandated themes of: Resource Development 1) Alternative and renewable energy for the North 2) Predicting the impacts of changing ice, permafrost, and snow on shipping, infrastructure, and communities Exercising Sovereignty Strong and Healthy Communities Environmental Stewardship and Climate Change 3) Baseline information and monitoring to prepare for development 4) Improving northern infrastructure 5) Underwater situational awareness and associated marine research 27 27

28 POLAR Knowledge Links with GIPPS / YOPPS Improved Observations in the Canadian Arctic Establishing Cambridge Bay as a Global monitoring super site. Optimize existing and new investments in surveillance, observation, and monitoring activities toward a strategic pan-regional monitoring system for Canada s North. Fill Cryospheric monitoring gaps. POLAR S&T Plan To support decision making needs in Canada s North under accelerated rates of development and change, the S&T Plan areas of focus under this plan that link with GIPPS/YOPPS are: Safe Arctic shipping and the mitigation of impacts from shipping through improved observations and predictions. Strengthening the environmental (includes the Cryosphere) and socioeconomic information base for assessment, regulatory approvals, and management for resource development. Supporting industry and communities in adapting to environmental changes

29 Merci Thank you Gracias شكرا Спасибо 谢谢