Quality and behavioural results from remote sensing efforts. 07 December 2016

Transcription

1 Quality and behavioural results from remote sensing efforts 07 December 2016

2 Structure Definition of non-compliance Observations Quality of measurements Quality of technology Understanding compliance behaviour 2

3 Technology determines compliance level >0.11 >0.13 Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 sulphur content => >0.15 Passenger Tanker Cargo >0.2

4 Observations Non- Threshold N Compliant NSI samples > % TNO sniffer var % MUMM flight > % Explicit flight > % Fuel Calculator NA pm pm 5

5 Observations 6

6 BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS Compliance by vessel type Significant amount of varying levels of non-compliance Scale Sulphur % Uncertainty * Level 0 <= 0,1 % >=25% (<±0,02) Level 1 0,11-0,12 % 23% (±0,02) Level 2 0,13-0,14% 21% (±0,03) Level 3 0,15-0,25 % 17% (±0,03) Level 4 > 0,25% 16% (>±0,03) Tankers contributing negatively to compliance, both absolutely and relatively Compliance by level and vessel type Compliance % distribution by vessel type ,0% 18,6% 8,6 % 18,3% 18,3 % 100% 80% 60% 40% Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level ,8% 6,4% 2,1% Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Passenger Tanker Cargo 20% 0% Cargo Tanker Passenger Average * The uncertainty is expressed as the relative standard deviation on a measurement (1 x RSD ±). 7

7 BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS Compliance by vessel size XS, S and M sizes (<291m) = 90.5 % of all measurements Scale Sulphur % Uncertainty * Level 0 <= 0,1 % >=25% (<±0,02) Level 1 0,11-0,12 % 23% (±0,02) Level 2 0,13-0,14% 21% (±0,03) Level 3 0,15-0,25 % 17% (±0,03) Level 4 > 0,25% 16% (>±0,03) L and XL sizes contributing (more) negatively to the relative average. Compliance by vessel size Compliance % distribution by vessel size Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 100% 80% 60% 40% Level 4 Level 3 Level % 0 XS S M L XL XXL 0% XS = 0-130m S = m M = m L = m XL = m XXL = >366m * The uncertainty is expressed as the relative standard deviation on a measurement (1 x RSD ±). 8

8 BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS Compliance by flag state A total of 34 flag states represented Scale Sulphur % Uncertainty * Level 0 <= 0,1 % >=25% (<±0,02) Level 1 0,11-0,12 % 23% (±0,02) Level 2 0,13-0,14% 21% (±0,03) Level 3 0,15-0,25 % 17% (±0,03) Level 4 > 0,25% 16% (>±0,03) Selected flag states contribute more to non-compliance, both absolutely and relatively Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 * The uncertainty is expressed as the relative standard deviation on a measurement (1 x RSD ±). 9

9 BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS Pattern analysis COMPARATIVES Several comparatives tracking vessel movement: Outbound: Fixed station against Explicit (13) Inbound: Explicit against fixed station (5) Explicit against MUMM (20) Possible early/late shifting? Possible corrective behaviour? Consistently compliant Consistently non-compliant Hit rate 50%/15% Measurements <5 hours a part INDICATIVE FINDINGS Consistently compliant behaviour Consistently non-compliant Late shifting Early shifting Corrective behaviour 10

10 Inspection coverage 4) Fuel Calculator 3) Dynamic Remote Sensing 2) Stationary Remote sensing 1) Fuel sampling, BDN s, log book Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate

11 Reconstructing fuel use in SECA Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate

12 Verify consumption of LSFO/HSFO in SECA Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate

13 Fuel Calculator Reconstruct fuel use based on ship activity during entire journey. Compare against ROB s. Determine unexplained fuel use. Tested against expert model: 10% deviation (conservative). Prosecution: sample as evidence, Fuel Calculator results as criminal gains. Future: Automatisation, EMSA 14

14 Good business case for non-compliance Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate

15 Impact of higher fines Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate

16 Impact of more inspections Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate