Adapting reservoir management strategies to climate change in Alentejo

Transcription

1 AdaPT Program presentation 16/09/2015 Adapting reservoir management strategies to climate change in Alentejo Paulo Diogo, Pedro Beça

2 OUTLINE Project s motivation Main objectives and tasks Study area Relevance of the project for stakeholders 2

3 PROJECT PARTNERS Paulo Diogo, António Carmona, Pedro Beça Marco Machado, Cláudia Costa, Joana Saraiva João Pedro Nunes, Jacob Keizer, João Rocha, Cláudia Santos Carlo Aall, Deborah Davies 3

4 MOTIVATION The choice of reservoirs of Monte Novo and Vigia - high relevance to the objectives established for the Programs AdaPT and EEA Grants: The region (Alentejo) is under high risk of significant impacts from CC, with particular focus in relation to water resources The importance of the system in the context of the water supply for human consumption in the Évora district and irrigation water source Present water quality and quantity problems can be enhanced by CC Adaptation strategies are required at several levels, e.g.: water management, reservoir operation, agricultural practices 4

5 PROJECT GOALS Definition of adaptation strategies in the management of Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs, to ensure resource sustainability quantitatively, qualitatively and economically Improve resource risk management - improving the safety of water availability, minimizing water quality risks Reduction of the pressures on water resources - quantification and characterization of pressures on available water resources Knowledge increase and dissemination - impacts of climate change on water availability and quality (e.g. droughts, floods) 5

6 MAIN PROJECT TASKS 1. Climate change scenarios characterization - Regional Climate Models 2. Environmental monitoring at Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs 3. River basin Eco-hydrological modeling under CC scenarios 4. Hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs 5. Definition of adaptation strategies: reservoir operation and agricultural practices 6. Dissemination of the project: project website, final report, project seminar 6

7 STUDY AREA 7

8 STUDY AREA 8

9 STUDY AREA 9

10 STUDY AREA 10

11 STUDY AREA 11

12 STUDY AREA 12

13 STUDY AREA 196 m 224 m ENERGY COST? 152 m WATER QUALITY IMPACTS? OPERATION RULES? 13

14 STUDY AREA Monte Novo Decrease in water availability and consumption increase 14

15 STUDY AREA Monte Novo Decrease in water availability and consumption increase Alqueva transfer 15

16 1. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Collaboration FCT IDL Multiple combinations of GCM and RCM until year 2100 Daily data for T max, T min, T avg, RH, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and dominant direction RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for each of 10 model combinations Control period: Data currently under analysis 16

17 2. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING Weather, water level and water quality monitoring in the two reservoirs Continuous temperature profile monitoring at Monte Novo Vigia Foto monte novo Monte Novo Extensive water quality monitoring in 8 sampling campaigns Monitoring water quality when extreme events occur in the basin 17

18 2. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING Weather, water level and water quality monitoring in the two reservoirs Continuous temperature profile monitoring at Monte Novo 18

19 3. Eco-HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool provides fine-scale mapping of the way rainwater, groundwater, nutrients and sediments flow through the reservoir ROUTING PHASE Human activities Climate daily Δt Reservoir processes LAND PHASE (for each land cover) Plant growth Nutrient cycling Hydrology Water and nutrient export Stream Water and nutrient instream processes Wastewater discharges WATERSHED OUTPUT 19

20 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING CE-QUAL-W2: two-dimensional, longitudinal/vertical, hydrodynamic and water quality model Model capabilities: Hydrodynamic - water surface elevations, velocities, and temperatures Water quality - 21 constituents in addition to temperature, including nutrient/phytoplankton/dissolved oxygen interactions during anoxic conditions Reservoir water level and operation under climate change scenarios Water quality assessment 20

21 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING Modelling tool: CE-Qual-W2, version 3.7 ( 21

22 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING Water Temperature at the dam 22

23 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING Dissolved Oxygen at the withdrawal 23

24 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING Dissolved Oxygen at the dam 24

25 4. WATER QUALITY MODELLING 25

26 5. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Reservoir operation curve rules, optimizing energy, water quality and structural solutions Agricultural sector crops alternatives, agricultural practices, technological options Source: USGCRP (2009) 26

27 6. PROJECT DISSEMINATION Project logo, keywords and key messages Domain and website: Leaflets and posters Presentations at conferences and events Final report to compile the results of the study Seminar to be held in the region of the study area Water management adaptation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin. 27

28 PROJECT RELEVANCE For water management authorities Improving water management, namely planning water transfers Better knowledge and management of water quality (present and future) Improved knowledge of the impacts of climate change on water availability and quality (e.g. droughts, floods) Contribute to the development of emergency response plans For the agricultural sector Knowledge of water needs Soil use impacts on water quality 28

29 For more information