Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.

Transcription

1 Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

2 Canada s Renewable Future Going Beyond Kyoto

3 North Americans are Dabbling Around the Edges of Renewable Energy Policy Little Recognition of the Crisis Facing the Continent

4 Canada & Kyoto Emissions 27%Higher than 1990 Not Lower Canada Has Not Even Started Can Canada Meet Kyoto? Germany s Emissions? Fallen 18% Since 1990 (Toronto Star 06/06/07)

5 Complacency is Not a Policy Inaction is Not an Option Skibsted Fjord, Denmark

6 The Troika of Meeting Demand Conservation #1 Use Less Improve Efficiency #2 Do More with Less Renewable Energy #3 Invest in the Future Fuchskaute Höhe Westerwald, Germany

7 Per Capita Consumption kwh/person Canada 14,500 France 8,000 Germany 6,500 Denmark 6,000

8 Canada Can & Must Cut Its Consumption 50%! From 550 TWh/yr To 275 TWh/yr

9 The Results in Our Household ~50% Reduction 800 kwh/month ! & ' '! & yr Avg '! ' &! & ' &! '! & ' &! '! & '! & ' &! ' ' &! &! ' &! 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month

10 Swept Area per Household Wind Turbine Area (m2)/household (~6.4 m/s) Texas Renewable Tariffs Launched Ontario Texas California Germany 0

11 Canada 100% Renewable? Yes! It Can Be Done More Likely in Canada Than Anywhere Outside NZ Cowley Ridge, Alberta

12 Wind Energy Has Come of Age Colorado California

13 Montefalcone, Italy

14 Galicia, Spain

15 Why Now? Wind Works Greater Reliability Productivity Improved More Efficient Taller Towers Costs Declined Economies-of-Scale Sales Price in US$/kW Yield in kwh/m2/yr Sales Price 200 Yield Year

16 Northern Ireland 40 m, 500 kw 80 m, 1.8 MW Kincardine, Ontario

17 We Know What Works...and What Doesn t Eole, Cap Chat Vortec

18 2006 World Wind Capacity Megawatts (Thousands) Europe North America Asia Year

19 World Wind Capacity 2006 ~70,000 MW South America 1% Europe 66% Asia 16% Africa 0% North America 17%

20 2006 World Wind Capacity 12,000 MW 48,000 MW 12,000 MW

21 North American Wind Capacity , ,

22 Wind Energy is a Real Business US$35 Billion in 2006 O&M 3% Project Development 65% Electricity Sales 32%

23 Wind Growing Rapidly Germany; ~2,400 MW/yr 20,000 MW by ,000 MW by 2012 Spain: ~1,700 MW/yr USA: ~1,500 MW/yr Growth: 20%-40%/yr

24 World Major Wind Markets Canada in Third Tier Germany Spain USA India Canada Total MW in 2006

25 Why Wind? Reduces Use of Fossil & Nuclear Fuels Most Cost- Effective of New Renewables Relatively Benign

26 Wind is Modular Quickly Installed When Needed As Needed Where Needed By Anyone Tehachapi, California

27 Wind is Flexible Scale Big or Small Projects Location Time Near or Far Short Lead Times Ownership Local or Absentee

28 Wind Energy Tariffs European Job Creation Engine Europe Direct Indirect Total Germany 7,500 37,500 45,000 Denmark 8,600 4,300 13,000 Spain 7,000 15,000 22,000 Total 80,000 Enercon, Aurich, Germany

29 Wind Energy s Benefits Clean & Green (Mostly) No SOx, NOx, or CO2 Renewable Net Positive Energy Balance (4-6 months) Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo Does Not Consume Water Modular = Flexible... and Can be Removed

30 Wind Energy s Impacts Aesthetics or Intrusiveness Erosion & Scarring from Roads Length, Width, Number and Slope Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect Climate? Noise--They are Audible Wildlife Habitat Disruption Bird & Bat Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions

31 Solar PV Growing Rapidly 2006: 5,600 MW Worldwide 1,600 MW/yr $20+ Billion Major Markets Germany MW/yr Japan--350 MW/yr Spain--25 MW/yr? California--50 MW/yr Rancho Seco, Calfornia

32 Solar PV in Germany ,000 New Systems 4 Billion Total of 300,000 Systems 750-1,100 MW in 2006! Total 2,500 MW Costs Dropped 25% 300 MW by Farmers! On Barn Roofs, 35 kw each

33 Solar Photovoltaic Development Total Installed MW USA Japan Germany Year

34 German Farms Solar PV Cash Crop 300 MW on Barn Roof Tops in 2006

35 German Granny Flat What s Wrong with This Picture? Near Freiburg, Germany

36 Schönau, Germany German Churches Protecting Creation

37 German Renewables More than Electricity Hot Water Space Heating the Hotel Victoria Has it All... from Solar Energy Freiburg, Germany

38 Germany s Renewable s Tariffs The Results (2006) Renewables 11.5% of Supply Renewables Generating 70 TWh/yr 70,000 Employed in Wind Industry 35,000 Employed in PV Industry 8,000 Employed in Biogas Industry 170,000 Employed in Renewables 16.4 Billion Turnover

39 Germany s Renewable Tariffs The Results Renewables ~70 TWh/yr 300,000 PV Installations 2,000 Biomass Plants 550 MW Farm Biogas, 10 TWh/yr 6,000 Hydro Plants 18,000 Wind Turbines Total of ~350,000 Generators! DeWind

40 Höhe Westerwald, Germany Setting the Stage

41 Why the European Success? #1 Community Involvement Germany & Denmark #2 Advanced Renewable Tariffs 16 EU Countries use Electricity Feed Laws

42 Increasing Acceptance #1 Your Own Pigs Don t Stink Jutland, Denmark

43 What Are Our Goals? Primary High Penetration of Renewables Quickly Secondary Equitably Distributed Ownership Rural Development Sustainable Manufacturing Distributed Generation Improve Resiliency Reduce Transmission Losses Firm-Up Wind s Variability Pincher Creek, Alberta: Shell Gas Plant

44 1. Do We Want Renewables? Peak Oil, Peak Gas Climate Catastrophe Europe, 2003: 52,000 Dead Public Support High at Level Not Seen in 20 Years Desire for New Jobs in Manufacturing

45 Profound Issues Confront Canada s Energy Future Natural Gas Production? Has Peaked Critical for Heating Canada s Place in the World? Canada Must Lead--Not Follow the USA Cowley Ridge, Alberta

46 California Renewable Generation Non-Hydro Renewables To 10% within 10 years Not Even a Crash Program 12 Non-Hydro Renewables % of Total Year

47 Canadian Electricity Generation ~530 TWh/yr New RE Hydro Nuclear 155 Fossil-Fired

48 A Thought Exercise: Thermal Generation Fossil-Fired Generation Major Emitter Fossil-Fired: 150 TWh/yr Neville Island, Penn. Circa 1974

49 A Thought Exercise: Thermal Generation How May Windmills? ~30,000 2 MW Turbines ~60,000 MW Germany Today: 20,000 MW ~3x Germany Today

50 Canadian Electricity Generation with German RE Today Canada Existing 90% 10% German New RE

51 Canadian Electricity Consumption with 325 TWh Hydro Export or Transport 120% Renewable Consumption

52 Electric Vehicle Charging

53 A Thought Exercise: Transportation Canadian Light Vehicles Major Emitter Light Vehicles 288 Billion km/yr Convert to Hybrid-Electric Requires ~150 TWh/yr

54 A Thought Exercise: Transportation How Many Windmills? ~30,000 2 MW Turbines ~60,000 MW Germany Today: 20,000 MW ~3x Germany Today = Canada s LV Transportation

55 Can It Be Done A Thought Exercise Heavy Trucks: 65,000/yr Heavy Trucks: ~30,000 MW/yr Germany Today: 20,000 MW ~3-6 yrs Production to Replace Transport Fuel?

56 Canada: Better Than Germany? More Land Fewer People More Wind Abundant Existing Hydro For Backup For Storage Forever!

57 Canada: Better Than Germany? This is Just Wind What About Biomass? Forests and Wood Wastes? Solar PV? Much Better than in Germany Geothermal? More Abundant than Once Believed Wow! Canada Has it All

58 Market Mechanism Status Premium Prices (Renewable Tariffs) Typically Non-Anglophone Countries Aggressive Targets Quotas (RPS & Tendering) Typically Anglophone Countries Timid Targets Seldom Met Haverigg, Cumbria, Britain

59 Advanced Renewable Tariffs Deliver More Capacity-- --More Quickly --More Equitably

60 Advanced Renewable Tariffs What Are They? Feed Laws or Minimum Price Systems Political Price, Not Political Quota Simple Contracts How Do They Work? Simple, Comprehensible, Transparent, Little Administration Where?

61 Renewable Energy Tariffs Status Standard Non-Standard Pending Proposed Austria Czech Republic Hungary Japan? Brazil Ireland Quebec? France Germany Greece Italy (PV) Minnesota C-BED PEI, Canada Washington State Turkey (Wind) Ontario Portugal

62 Renewable Tariffs: Trend Growing in North America? Husum, Germany

63 Advanced Renewable Tariffs North American Endorsements Ontario Liberal Party, 2004 Green Party, 2006 Manitoba Liberal Party, 2006 KAP, Chamber of Commerce Canada s Federal NDP 2006 Many NGOs But Not EDF, NRDC, & UCS Ferndale, Ontario

64 Ontario s Standard Offer Program The Most Progressive Renewable Energy Policy in North America in Two Decades Igny, Lorraine, France

65 Advanced Renewable Tariffs for Ontario 20 Year Contracts <44kV, <10 MW Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass Inclusive--Open to All No Program Cap

66 Replicating The Ontario Model Official BC Saskatchewan Unofficial Manitoba Québec Nova Scotia Michigan? Plus Energy House, Freiburg, Germany

67 Advanced Renewable Tariffs A Question of Equity Feed Laws are Fair Nearly All Can Play Farmers, Ranchers, First Nations, & Co-ops Buffalo Ridge, MN

68 Renewables: When You Look Closely Worth Every Cent

69 Renewable Energy... For Today and for Tomorrow Technology for Life* *from N.F.S. Grundtvig

70 Mr. Harper What are We Waiting for?

71 The Renewables Revolution Has Begun! Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand