De Routekaart 2050 voor energie goed voor de economie? Mark van Stiphout Cabinet of Commissioner Oettinger 9 December 2011 Den Haag

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1 De Routekaart 2050 voor energie goed voor de economie? Mark van Stiphout Cabinet of Commissioner Oettinger 9 December 2011 Den Haag 1

2 Context: European Council, 4 February 2011.EU objective for 2050 GHG emissions down to 80-95% below 1990 levels.looks forward to elaboration of a low-carbon 2050 strategy a framework for longer-term action in energy and related sectors.will require a revolution in energy systems which must start now 2

3 Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011) 100% 100% 80% Power Sector Current policy 80% 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% 40% Industry 40% Transport 20% 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% Efficient pathway (GHG emissions): -40% in % in

4 Sectoral milestones towards a low-carbon economy GHG reductions compared to Power (CO 2 ) -7% -54 to -68% -93 to -99% Industry (CO 2 ) -20% -34 to -40% -83 to -87% Transport (incl. CO2 aviation, excl. maritime) +30% +20 to -9% -54 to -67% Residential and services (CO 2 ) -12% -37 to -53% -88 to-91% Agriculture (non-co 2 ) -20% -36 to -37% -42 to -49% Other non-co 2 emissions -30% -72 to -73% -70 to -78% - 4 4

5 Meeting our by 2020 goals is a precondition Current trend to 2020 Reduce greenhouse gas levels by 20% -20% Increase share of renewables to 20% Reduce energy consumption by 20% Current trend to % 100% Current trend to % 5

6 Energy Roadmap 2050.To help in seeing what policy action needed in the next few years for an energy system transformation delivering energy security, competitiveness and decarbonisation.the post 2020 agenda, focused mainly on 2030, consistent with 2050.To facilitate coherence of action by EU and MS.An exploration of possible futures for the EU energy system.not a forecast, nor a beauty contest of scenarios, nor or a prescription 6

7 Decarbonisation Scenarios in Energy RM Current trend scenarios: reference and current policy initiatives scenarios GHG reduction option Energy efficiency Low end Diversified supply technologies scenario High end High energy efficiency scenario RES Diversified supply technologies scenario RES scenario CCS Delayed CCS scenario Low nuclear* Nuclear Low nuclear scenario Delayed CCS* 7

8 Implications for the EU Towards no regrets actions indicated by all decarbonisation scenarios - Need energy efficiency gains throughout - Growing reliance on electricity - Renewables major contributor to supply - Need modernised intelligent infrastructure - Need an efficient internal market - A major long-term investment challenge throughout - Fuel savings 8

9 EU renewable energy potential Wind energy onshore Solar energy Wave energy Bioenergy Simplified Map 9

10 Conclusions - supported by all scenarios.energy efficiency gains throughout system.renewables move centre stage.growing reliance on electricity.decentralisation increases.all decarbonisation options can contribute: EE, RES, nuclear, CCS.Gas is in every scenario its long-term contribution depends on CCS 10

11 What does it mean for the economy?.investments in generation and networks.cost-savings for investments in renewables.innovation in» Renewables» Energy supply systems» CCS» Appliances» ICT» Transport 11

12 Energy Roadmap 2050 what can be expected?.adoption 13 December 2011.Should help in considering long-term investment concerns and diminish policy uncertainty for follow-up Communications in 2012 and debate on milestones.high-level Stakeholder event in February 2012.Danish Presidency - Council conclusions in May 12

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14 Conclusions (2).Fuel import savings but higher upfront investments: a major long-term investment challenge, notably on demand side.need modernised intelligent infrastructure.need an efficient internal market, different market design but which?.need to meet preconditions: social dimension, skills and training.need mobilising capital 14

15 Investment needs example of electricity and gas Total investment needs in the electricity and gas sector between : over 1 trillion Power generation: ~ 500 bn Transmission and distribution: ~ 600 bn RES: ~ bn Distribution: ~ 400 bn Transmission: ~ 200 bn Electricity: ~ 140 bn (interconnectors: 70, offshore grid: 30; smart grid installations in transmission: 40) NB: approximative figures, mainly from DG ENER calculations based on data from PRIMES, ENTSOs, KEMA etc. Gas: ~ 70 bn (import pipelines to the EU, interconnectors, reverse flows, storages, LNG) 15