PV Market Outlook : Prospects & Developments

Transcription

1 PV Market Outlook : Prospects & Developments Mrs Eleftheria Siozou, Investment Promotion Officer Athens, October 8, 2013

2 Agenda The Global PV Market The Greek Case Investment opportunities for Residential Systems Invest in Greece Agency s service offering

3 Global PV Market Status and Evolution

4 Source: EPIA Global PV market was stable in 2012

5 Source: EPIA More countries appeared on the map in 2012

6 Source: EPIA European market went down in 2012

7 European variety

8 Market Segmentation PV on rooftops increases in Europe (from 65% to 72% of the market in 2012 compared to 2011) In absolute value in Europe, Residential market grew from 2.9 to 3.3 GW Commercial/ industrial declined from 7.6 to 5.2 GW Ground mounted declined from 5.7 to 4.5 GW Globally, FiT still dominates Traditional support schemes are still dominant (GC/Grants) Self-consumption represents 10% of the market Netmetering is negligeable Purely competitive PV is hard to assess Source: EPIA

9 The Greek Case

10 The Greek System Current Status Electricity Production Mix January August 2013 The participation of RES Production in the Electricity mix for the year 2013, almost doubled in relation to last year (49,8% increase). Source: Independent Power Transmission Operator (ADMIE)

11 Impressive RES Investments in Greece RES Investments per year in Greece Total Capacity Installed (MW) -at the end of the year- Annual Capacity Installed Annual Investments MW % mil. % % % % % % % % % % % End September % % Numbers speak loud Remarkable Investments Source: CRES

12 and a Great pool of RES projects in the pipeline TECHNOLOGY With OPERATION License With INSTALATION License With POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT With PRODUCTION License Total capacity (MW) Wind Biomass Geothermal Small Hydro 1782, ,40 787, , ,76 446, ,98 50,30 21,28 968,30 PV 2350,93 633, , ,64 Solar Thermal Hybrid Total Capacity (MW) ,80 0 0, , , , , ,09 Source: Ministry of Environment & Climate Change, end of MARCH, 2013

13 The Greek RES Market is expected to grow significantly Capacity 2013, end of March Target 2020 National Action Plan for RES ( ) In 2010 Greece endorsed its National Action Plan for Renewable Energy Sources (time frame ) It is an ambitious plan aiming to reform the county s energy sector so that 20% of the primary energy use is coming from RES by 2020 (penetration level: 40% electricity, 20% heat and 10% transport) Hydro Geothermal PV Concetrated Solar Wind Biomass In the electricity sector, major RES players are going to be Wind and PV (7.5 and 2.2 GW target values for 2020) and, evidently, the existing large hydro. Source: YPEKA, National Renewable Energy Action Plan This does not exclude additional contributions from other RES e.g. biomass, geothermal energy and concentrated solar power

14 RES Investments needed -In the Timeframe- Investments needed ( ) Total (Mil.Euro) Lignite 2100 Natural Gas 3311 Oil 249 Large Hydro 650 Small Hydro 137 Pump storage 1672 PV 5508 Solar Thermal 1120 Wind 6710 Geothermal 264 Biomass / biogas 530 Total The overall investments needed in the energy sector are estimated to 22.2 billion euro for the timeframe. From these 16.5 will go to new RES capacity, nearly 7 billion to wind, 5.5 billion to PV, 1.6 billion to pump storage for supporting the variable RES production, 1.1 billion to solar heating and cooling, 0.5 billion to biomass and biogas projects. On fossil fuels, Greece will spent 2.1 billion euro for new «clean coal» (lignite in our case) power plants while 3.3 billion will be invested in natural gas facilities Details of the total budget needed for are shown on the table Source: CRES from which RES 16455

15 The Greek PV Market at a glance (I) MWp Greek PV market development Greece ranks 5 th worldwide with regard to installed PV capacity per capita. In 2011 and 2012, Greece was in the TOP-10 worldwide with regard to newly installed capacity. In January 2013, Greece installed more PV than Germany, the world PV leader (GR: 300 MWp, DE: 275 MWp). 4.5 billion were invested in PV in Greece during the last 5 years New annual capacity , Cumulative capacity ,535 2,580 2,825 Estimates for by LAGIE, the Greek Electricity Market Operator (Feb. 2013) This is 35% higher than the cumulative amount invested in all other RES technologies during the last 20 years. In 2012, PV investments in Greece reached 1.6 billion, i.e. 0.8% of GNP. In 2012, PV covered 3% of electricity demand in Greece. In 2013, solar share is expected to reach 6%. For a small country in an unprecedented financial crisis, this performance is indeed amazing. Source: HELAPCO

16 The Greek PV Market at a glance (II) Manufacturing facilities Another Booming Industry PV Production Units Products Annual Capacity (MW) Employees Exel Group PV Panels Heliosphera Thin Film Silcio Piritium Solar Cells Hellas Cells PV Panels Wafers Cells PV Panels 29 9,5 Stel Solar PV Panels Today s Status (April 2013): 2.398,1 MW Installed Capacity PV Installations per Category Total (MWp) New Installations Jan-April 2013 (MWp) Roofs PVs 348,0 50,2 PVs-Islands 128,5 16,1 PVs - Mainland 1.921,7 795,6 Source: HELAPCO

17 Latest changes in the PV framework As a result of cash flow problems of the Market Operator, the Greek authorities have taken drastic measures during the last ten months: A suspension of licensing of New PV systems (with the exception of residential systems up to 10 kwp) imposed in August The temporary suspension of the licensing process does not apply to the PV projects that have ALREADY been included in the provisions of the Fast Law and for the roof PVs 10kw An extra tax of 25% to 42 has been imposed to all operating PV plants (residential systems excluded). Restrictions of licenses for medium-large projects Haircut of FITs: Feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) for new PV plants have been reduced in 2013 to 125 /ΜWh for residential systems (<10 kwp), 120 /ΜWh for small commercial systems (<100 kwp) and 95 /ΜWh for large systems (>100 kwp), with a further drastic digression planned for the years to come. Greece has been offering high feed-in-tariffs for PV since This, has skyrocketed the market, especially during the last two years. However, this very mechanism has also overheated the market. High feed-in-tariffs and dramatic decreases of PV costs since 2011 have led to a boom that the Electricity Market cannot sustain anymore.

18 Investment opportunities for Residential Systems

19 The Greek Sun is Not in Crisis..

20 Solar residential systems: An attractive investment choice

21 with specific Investment Opportunities The Greek Ministry of the Interior recently approved a program that aims to upgrade local governments infrastructure, including the installation of solar PV systems in municipality buildings throughout Greece. The Greek Interior Ministry will use European Union funds to upgrade local government infrastructure and management practices. The goal is to help local governments improve their services while also reducing their cost and increasing their income. The ministry has prioritized and specified the areas of action in need of reform. One of these areas is renewable energy and environmental protection. With the installation of solar PV systems in municipality buildings, the government aims to reduce the environmental impact of the local government and provide income through the sale of the generated power. The budget is estimated at 6 million and will come specifically through the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF), the reference document used to secure European Union funds at the national level. Pyrgos installs 200 solar powered bus stops Meanwhile, the Pyrgos municipality, the capital of Elis in western Peloponnese, announced the installation of stand-alone solar photovoltaic systems on the roofs of 200 bus stops. The project has a 301,305 budget, which includes both the supply and the installation of solar systems, and is going to be auctioned in the following weeks. It will also be financed by NSRF funds via the Environment and Sustainable Development Program, managed by the Greek Ministry of Energy

22 Feed-in Tariffs for Residential Solar Systems Month/Year February 2013 August 2013 February 2014 August 2014 February 2015 August 2015 February 2016 August 2016 February2017 August 2017 February 2018 August 2018 February 2019 August 2019 Tariffs ( /ΜWh) 125,00 125,00 120,00 120,00 115,00 115,00 110,00 110,00 105,00 100,00 95,00 90,00 85,00 80,00 Power Purchase Agreement Duration : 25 years

23 Revenues for Residential Solar Systems CAPACITY (kwp) Yearly Revenues ( ) for 25 years *With the current tariff and for those who sign a PPA contract in the period

24 Invest in Greece Agency s service offering

25 Invest in Greece-your partner to success Invest in Greece provides support throughout the entire business cycle Assistance & Advice 1. Governmental Legal Entity 2. Incorporation and operation since Business Units: Investment Promotion Unit Aftercare Support FAST TRACK Analysis Investor Services Unit Strategic Investments Unit Policy and Planning Unit Finance and Administration Unit Communication and Public Relations Unit Facilitation

26 investment opportunities portfolio Public Projects Promotion of mature public projects, in sectors where the country has competitive advantages. Cooperation with the relevant Ministries and the local authorities for finding projects which can attract private investments. Private Projects Development of a portfolio of mature private projects in many sectors of the economy 300 mature privately owned projects in our projects portfolio. Customized promotion to foreign Investors

27 Προσέλκυση Επενδύσεων Στόχοι 2013