Utility scale Solar: Learning from the German market and Global trends

Transcription

1 Utility scale Solar: Learning from the German market and Global trends SESA, December 6th, 2018 Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 1

2 Agenda 1. Evolution of Germany s renewable energy and solar market and what can be learned from this 2. Update on utility scale solar in Germany today 3. Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 2

3 Why did Germany start the journey towards renewables in 2000? Sustainability - Keep resources for future generations! Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 3

4 Why did Germany start the journey towards renewables in 2000? Electricity prices by source (Germany/Africa) Economically sensible renewable energy production got more and more competitive (break even with domestic electricity price in 2012) Source: Volker Quaschning, professor for renewable energy systems at the Berlin University of Appllied Sciences HTW Berlin, spokesman for the renewable energy programme Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 4

5 The Energiewende increased the renewable power generation tenfold Development of power generation from renewable energies in Germany Hydro Germany went from 3.4% renewables in gross power generation in 1999 to 36.2% (218 TWh) in 2017 PV accounted for 38.4 TWh: 43 GW PV installed 28% of this is utility scale (12 GW) Source: Umweltbundesamt (UBA) based on AGEE-Stat, 02/2018 (geothermal energy is included in total) Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 5

6 Economics and Successes of the German Energiewende How: decreasing feed-in-tariff ( take or pay ) German PV market skyrocketed between 2000 and Price parity of FIT and electricity rate was reached end of 2012 Germany as major market for solar helped PV panel pricedrop worldwide until in 2013 European antidumping law fixed panel prices at 75 ct/w (MIP removed in Sep 2018) 120,000 jobs in PV created in Germany between 2000 and 2012 but: mechanics of German EEG (renewable energy law) resulted in high cost allocation on electricity prices for end customers (8 ct/kwh in 2013 = 20% of total price/kwh) German FIT EEG-Vergütung Electricity rate* PV installation costs in Germany (CAD/kWp) Inverters, racking, installation 5250 PV modules Source: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie, Februar 2018; Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, October 2018 Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 6

7 Lessons learned: Market reaction to incentives and political interferences Market development is highly sensitive to political interferences (positive as negative): PV installations in Germany per year (MWp) Growth due to decreasing PV panel prices and attractive FIT very quick Conservative party used high increase of renewable energy contribution to change renewable energy law and reduce FIT drastically in 2012 Market broke down in reaction to reduced FIT combined with tariff on imported solar panels Development of employment in German solar industry PV installation per year dropped by almost 75% within 2 years Jobs in brown coal Jobs in Solar industry 80,000 jobs in solar industry were lost due to political decisions Sources: BNetzA, Volker Quaschning Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 7

8 Main Challange: load distribution with increasing amount of renewables Germany: a week in July in 2008 (14.5% renewables) mid-load and peak-load Brown coal (base-load) hydro mid-load and peak-load Brown coal Nuclear Nuclear power (base-load) Source: Volker Quaschning, professor for renewable energy systems at the Berlin University of Appllied Sciences HTW Berlin, spokesman for the renewable energy programme Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 8

9 Main Challange: load distribution with increasing amount of renewables Germany: a week in July in 2020 (49% renewables) forecast of BEE in 2009 hydro mid-load and peak-load mid-load and peak-load Source: Volker Quaschning, BEE (Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energien e.v.) Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 9

10 How can a 100% renewable energy mix work? Fluctuating renewable energy production Controllable renewable energy production Consumer Central steering Innovative storage Supraregional balance Source: Volker Quaschning Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 10

11 Agenda 1. Evolution of Germany s renewable energy and solar market and what can be learned from this 2. Update on utility scale solar in Germany today 3. Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 11

12 In Germany utility scale systems face more constraints than roof-top systems Governmental constraints on utility scale PV are significantly higher than on roo#op PV Annual PV installations in Germany by system size Zones where utility scale PV can be build are highly regulated by government Since 2015 bidding procedure for 750kW to 10MW in place: only systems that win tender receive funds under renewable energy law 3 bidding rounds each year, volume of each 200 MW à limits annual addition of utility scale PV under funding to 600 MW/year Pricing by pay-as-bid method. Uniform pricing has been tried out but was dropped. Utility scale systems account for only 28% of the total PV installations in Germany Source: BNetzA, BSW-Solar; 1/2018 Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 12

13 Tendering procedure has resulted in competitive pricing of utiltiy scale PV Utility scale solar revenue streams in Germany: Solar revenue from renewable energy law in Germany Until 2015 utility scale PV got a FIT (lower than rooftop systems) With bidding process prices decreased from avg ct/kwh to avg ct/kwh and is now below onshore wind (6.90 ct/kwh) Currently rock bottom for Germany seems to be 6 ct/kwh with system yields below 1,100 kwh/ kwp. In countries with very high solar yield like Saudi-Arabia prices are as low as 2.5 ct/kwh Realisation rate of 94 % shows utility scale PV still pays off at these prices Starting in 2018, first PPAs between utilities or industrial consumers and solar power providers create new growth independently of governmental funding ct/kwh PV rooftop small PV rooftop large + until 2015 ground mounted PV ground mounted avg. tender price Electricity price RES customer Electricity price SME commercial customer Utility scale solar is now fully competitive in the electricity market Source: BNetzA, market research Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 13

14 Agenda 1. Evolution of Germany s renewable energy and solar market and what can be learned from this 2. Update on utility scale solar in Germany today 3. Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 14

15 Relevance of utility scale solar is growing worldwide as prices decrease Development of Solar installations worldwide GW 400 China Germany Great Britain Italy Japan Canada USA Rest of World Globally 403 GW of Solar installed in 2017 Canada: 2.9 GW è Share of large scale solar: Top 10 countries in 2017 by solar installations by installed solar capacity Germany 28% Japan 40% USA 67% China Great Britain RoW 73% 74% > 80% è Global annual growth rates > 30% each year Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 15

16 Financial revenue streams are moving away from rebates and FIT Main driver for fast development of solar markets within the last 15 years were governmental incentives (FIT, rebates, net metering) Governmental incentives shift more and more towards tendering procedures While incentives in the mature markets get lower and lower, free market mechanisms such as PPAs with industrial consumers and electricity retailing become more and more significant: Corporate PPAs: direct contract with a corporate entity for procurement of electricity at a competitive rate, carbon offset credits can be included or sold separately to carbon emitters PPAs with Local Distribution Grid Operators (municipal governments and/or their public utilities) As system costs decrease revenue streams can shi# more and more towards electricity retailing Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 16

17 System costs vary significantly and are driven by construction and panels Worldwide development of costs for solar: PV panel price globally dropped down to as low as 30 ct/wp in 2018 In Germany 5 10MW ground mounted solar systems can be installed for 75 ct/wp (excl. grid connection) è Alberta is currently at around 145 ct/wp EU spot market panel prices (by technology in CAD) ,23 in ct/w Alberta Germany 380W modules 46 ct 30 ct 100kW string inverters 6 ct 4 ct Racking 30 tilt 15 ct 10 ct AC/DC cabling 2 ct 2 ct AC/DC construction incl. pile driving 40 ct 15 ct Transformer LT-MT 10 ct 7 ct margin 26 ct 7 ct Price for customer 145 ct 75 ct Alberta EPCs can optimize via: Engineering: e.g. Modular layout in 2.5MW blocks International procurement of components (certification?) Installation: efficient construction site management (German EPC can build 5 MW in 3 weeks) Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 17

18 Worldwide technology trends: Eastwest orientation for a better demand fit East-west facing South facing East-west facing array South facing array Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 18

19 Worldwide technology trends: bifacial panels increase yield by up to 25% Bifacial panels Mono-facial panels Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 19

20 Worldwide technology trends: tracking can boost yield by up to 45% No tracking Single axis Dual axis Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 20

21 Worldwide technology trends: steel and aluminium mostly used for racking Steel Aluminium Wood Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 21

22 Worldwide technology trends: mobile solutions are entering the market Solar sea can (NAIT project) Floating solar MSP: mobile solar power Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 22

23 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada

24 STEPHAN DAUTEL Facts Master of science in physics, MBA in International Marketing Languages: German, English, Spanish, Italian Married, 3 children Work Experience 18 years of PV experience in Europe, USA and Africa Thereof 10 years owner and CEO of futurasol GmbH: 22 million CAD turnover in 2010, 25 employees Largest projects: 1.7 MWp rooftop, 1.4 MWp ground mounted 50 MWp project development in Mali (Africa) Director of Dautel Solutions Inc., Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Personal Strength Experience in PV sales, engineering, project management, project financing 18 years in start up management positions, rewarded with Top 3 at Bayerischer Gründerpreis (Bavarian start up award) in 2008 Motivated and target oriented team player Reliable partner Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 24

25 ANNETTE DAUTEL Facts Master in Business Studies / Economics Languages: German and English fluent Married, 2 children Work Experience Ten years in business consulting with focus on customer related and strategic topics for companies of all sizes Seven years with Germany s largest Utility Company E.ON (as consultant and employee) with focus on end customer business including setting up the PV business for all project sizes and customer groups Management and Leadership experience in different positions in consultancy and industry Personal Strength Excellent skills in strategic planning, project setup and project management Expertise in customer management and customer service topics including NPS (NetPromoter Certified Associate) Expertise in energy sector and PV business Team Player with Management and Leadership qualities Highly motivated and target oriented Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada Page 25