Henrik Wenzel University of Southern Denmark

Transcription

1 Identification of global biomass supply marginals and their dependency on scale of demand through econometric modelling a case of using the GLOBIOM tool Henrik Wenzel University of Southern Denmark Understanding the Climate Effects of Bioenergy Systems, May 16 th, 2017 Co-hosted by IEA Bioenergy Task 38 and Chalmers University of Technology

2 Presentation outline Biomass demand in renewable energy systems Biomass supply and origin

3 100 % renewable energy in DK how? Wind power + solar (and wave) Biomass System design Electricity Heat Transport How do we distinguish a good from a bad system design?

4 Wind energy? Wind power + solar and wave Biomass System design Electricity Heat Transport

5 Bio-energy? Wind power + solar and wave Biomass System design Electricity Heat Transport

6 Bio-energy? Wind power + solar and wave Biomass System design Electricity Heat Transport Food, feed, other

7 Energy system design studies in Denmark Climate Commission, 2010 Energinet.dk, 2010 Energinet.dk, 2015 Danish Association of Engineers, 2009 Danish Association of Engineers, 2015 CEESA, 2011 University of Southern Denmark, 2014 Danish Energy Agency, 2014 Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives, 2016

8 Analysing biomass dependency - in four different system configurations 1. Standard bioenergy 2. Electrification 3. Electrolysis 4. Electrolysis + carbon recycling

9 The 4 system design configurations 90 PJ/y 625 PJ/y = 120 GJ/person/y 280 PJ/y = 50 GJ/person/y 220 PJ/y = 40 GJ/person/y

10 The 4 system design configurations 90 PJ/y 625 PJ/y = 120 GJ/person/y 280 PJ/y = 50 GJ/person/y 220 PJ/y = 40 GJ/person/y Global biomass availability in 2050 = EJ/year (IPCC, 2011 ) = GJ/person

11 VE system designs 2050 VE resources PJ/y Biofuel scenario VE scenarios Energy agency and SDU El scenario Hydrogen scenarios 120 GJ per prs./y Global average acc. to IPCC Brint Hydrogen Vind Wind Biomasse 40 GJ per prs./y 0 ENS SDU ENS SDU ENS SDU ENS SDU Even the most avanced VE scenario uses twice as much biomass as the GJ/prs./y available as global average according to IPCC (2011)

12 Modelling biomass supply - the GLOBIOM econometric model Cost of CO 2 CO 2 Yields Cost of land Cost of forestry Wood Price of wood A grid cell model Based on a partial equilibrium econometric model, the probable suppliers of wood for energy are identified under varying conditions for biomass price and CO 2 price

13 Identifying the response to a Danish change in demand Biomass supply Russia Biomass demand UK Energy system Latin America Market (Pellets, Chips) DK Energy system North America Other demands Other Other demands demands = Forest/plantation owner Africa Europe

14 When identifying the global biomass marginal, the assumption on the scale of global bioenergy production is decisive The scale of bioenergy production is, in turn, dependant on biomass market prices.

15 Partial equilibrium model of biomass supply - at varying biomass prices and high CO2 price

16 Mha EJ/year Mha EJ/year Mha EJ/year Mha EJ/year Partial equilibrium model of land use change - at varying biomass and CO2 prices 0 US$/ton CO2; 1.5 US$/GJ 50 US$/ton CO2; 1.5 US$/GJ US$/ton CO2; 5 US$/GJ US$/ton CO2; 5 US$/GJ Cropland area Plantation area Grassland area Old forest area New forest area Other land area Solid paid, EJ primary

17 Partial equilibrium model of land use change - at varying biomass and CO2 prices

18 Partial equilibrium model of land use change - incremental change at demand increase - what is the effect of a marginal change in demand?

19 Global biomass-for-energy marginals - overview of most probable candidates in an IPCC 2 o C RE world Biomass origin Scale of availability Plantation on grassland with no or low ILUC Forestry thinnings & residues Yield increases from forestry intensification Plantation on other land (savanna, cerrado, ) Harvest from existing forest Plantation on forest land Up to 40 EJ/year Up to 10 EJ/year Up to 10 EJ/year?? Above 80 EJ/year

20 Global biomass-for-energy marginals - overview of most probable candidates in an IPCC 2 o C RE world Biomass origin Scale of availability Plantation on grassland with no or low ILUC Forestry thinnings & residues Yield increases from forestry intensification Plantation on other land (savanna, cerrado, ) Harvest from existing forest Plantation on forest land New cropping schemes in agricultue Up to 40 EJ/year Up to 10 EJ/year Up to 10 EJ/year?? Above 80 EJ/year Potentally high e.g. in Denmark

21 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario?

22 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario? Cerrado

23 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario? Tropical forest

24 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario? Eucalyptus plantation

25 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario? Eucalyptus harvest

26 The origin of biomass - in a global Renewable Energy scenario? The sustainability of a bio-energy technology does not lie in its inherent nature of being BASED ON biomass, but in its ability to SAVE overall biomass consumption in the whole system

27 Thank you for your attention