International Building Trends

Transcription

1 . International Building Trends USA Europe Switzerland AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

2 . Statistics for comparison Vermont Switzerland Area 9,614 16,125 mile 2 Pop. 609,000 8,000,000 Density (Pers/mile 2 ) GNP/capita $42,500 $75,500 House $215,000 $1,000,000 Electricity $0.16 $0.28/kWh Gasoline $3.60 $7.60/gal USA Home ownership 65% 35% AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env. Source: Eurostat LBL 2013

3 . Current trends in Europe Form - Simplification to compact box - Large glass area to south - Row or duplex houses AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env. HVAC - Gas condensing boilers - Biomass/pellets rural areas - Heat pump growth - Ambient air - Ground - Solar combi - Solar space+water heat (Austria)

4 Building standards trends Europe: - PassivHaus spreading - PH conferences draw > 1000 part. Northern Europe - Adapting own version of PH Switzerland Dr Andre Feist - Prefer own standards / units - Minergie - Minergie-Eco - Minergie-P - Minergie-A AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

5 Trends Switzerland - Land ownership building rights - Apartments + row houses dominate - Lots tiny (>$100/sqft) - Low mortgage rates (1-2%) - 2nd home market explosion new limits on numbers of "cold beds" AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

6 "Plus-Energy" buildings - Reduce demand i.e. PH-strategies - Add pv until elect. supply * primary energy factor > demand (heating and power) BUT: "Plus-Energy" bldgs "Zero-Energy" bldgs Plus-Energy Cadruvi-Joos PV production mostly in summer Largest energy demand in winter so dependency on outside sources. AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

7 Economic factors behind future trends 1) PV prices but also feed-in tarrifs falling 2) Grid elec. prices rise Momentary grid supply shortages 3) Elec. hybrid autos increase elec. demand nights when no pv supply 4) New buildings need 75% less energy Renovated bldgs 33% less energy than average today. AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env. 5) Cost of living increases faster than salaries or pensions so decreased buying power

8 Demographic factors behind future trends Aging population changes market demands: 1) Smaller living units, more 1-person households 2) Access to public transport 3) Social contact spaces 4) More time home (comfort priority) 5) Less disposable income AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

9 Conclusions: - More bldg integrated pv - Renovation dominates construction with conversion to smaller living units - Construction/renovation costs adjust: - limited household disposable income - rising interest rates - Energy costs inflation Supply interruptions - Problems evident sooner in Europe than US, innovation in Europe can be useful for US. AEU Ltd. Arch., Energy & Env.

10 Buildings and End-Use Energy Efficiency in China: Some Facts, Policies, and Observations Better Buildings by Design 2013 Burlington, 7 February 2013 The Regulatory Assistance Project Global China European Union United States Frederick Weston 魏雷克

11 Beijing, 12 October 2007, 2:33 PM 11

12 Beijing, 25 October 2007, 12:30 PM 12

13 Beijing, 26 October 2007, 9:21 AM 13

14 China s Energy and Environmental Goals 中国的能源和环境目标 16% energy intensity, 17% carbon intensity, and 4 other pollutant reduction goals in 12th FYP 40-45% carbon intensity reduction and 15% nonfossil goals by 2020 General desire to control total energy and electricity consumption Control of coal consumption under discussion MEP s air quality management programs for 3 Regions and 6 City Clusters AQM rule identifies end-use energy efficiency (EE) as a means of reducing local air pollution 14

15 China and C0al China is responsible for half of the world s annual coal consumption China s power sector accounts for roughly 50% of the country s coal consumption Others, 24% India, 8% Japan, 3% America Russia America, 15% China, 47% Russia, 3% China Japan India Others 15

16 Reliance on Thermal Generation 16

17 Other Costs of Air Pollution in China World Bank: public health cost 4% to 5% of GDP between 1995 and 2003 MIT (2011): 6% to 9% of GDP between 1995 and 2005 ($112 billion in 2005) Non-quantified: flight delays & cancellations, traffic accidents, crop losses, ecosystem damage, tourism losses, etc. 17

18 Current Policies to Promote Renewables 目前促进可再生能源发展的政策 National goals: 11.4% of primary energy from renewables by GW of wind and 15 GW of solar by % of primary energy from renewables by GW of wind and 50 GW of solar by 2020 In support of these goals: Feed-in tariffs for wind and solar Priority given to renewables by grid companies in purchase and dispatch 18

19 Current Policies to Promote EE 目前促进能效的政策 Top 10,000 Industries Program Differential pricing for industries Retail electricity price rises as the enterprise s manufacturing efficiency goes down Energy Efficiency Power Plants (EPPs) End-use energy efficiency investments aggregated to produce savings that replicate the output of a conventional power plant Demand-Side Management (DSM) Rule for grid company investment in EE and load reductions 0.3% annual reductions in peak load and energy DSM Cities Program Municipal requirements for reducing electricity demand 19

20 Current Policies to Improve Environmental Protection End-use energy efficiency as tool to reduce emissions of pollutants State Council Guidance: Joint Prevention and Joint Control of Air Pollution May 2010 Local coal cap pilot programs three regions Beijing, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta Co-control of air pollutants (SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 ) pilot in Urumqi Impacts on water to be considered Energy consumption standards for specific industries/processes, including coal-fired generation 20

21 China s Building Stock Today there over 43 billion square meters of building stock in China 90 percent of it is not energy efficient China adds an average of 2 billion square meters of new building stock each year In 2011, new construction totaled 3.4 billion square meters Rapid urbanization, increased per capita living floor area, and improved living standards have increased energy demand by China's building sector Some 300 million people (an entire United States) will move into China s cities in the next two decades A recent study shows that when Chinese rural residents become city residents, their electricity consumption per capita increases fourfold China s challenges: Enforcing building codes for massive new construction By one estimate, over 80% of China s building stock in 2050 has not yet been built Retrofitting the existing building stock 21

22 The 12 th Five-Year Plan ( ) Energy consumption by China s buildings is projected to reach 950-1,100 Mtce by 2015 Space heating in northern China accounts for 40% of total building energy use In May 2012, the Ministry of Housing and Urban- Rural Development (MoHURD) announced the 12 th FYP on building efficiency goal to cut the sector s energy use by 116 Mtce by 2015 As part of this, China set a goal to retrofit 50 million square meters of residential buildings in the hot-summer-cold-winter (HSCW) climate region, where economic growth is highest 22

23 Environmental Considerations Regional air quality rules for local pollutants NO X, SO 2, PM are driving provincial and municipal energy-saving efforts Heavy industry has been moving out of some major eastern cities over the last decade Shanghai, for one, has discovered that, to meet its air quality goals, 80% of the emissions reductions will have to come from energy savings in the building sector 23

24 But the GHG Challenge Still Overwhelms Source: Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program 24

25 Additional Activities National incentive program to mandate green buildings In April 2012, Ministry of Finance (MoF) and MoHURD jointly announced that a district committed to 100 percent green buildings would be rewarded 50 million RMB ($8 million) By the end of 2012, a total of 400 million RMB ($64 million) was given to eight green building districts 1 January 2013, the State Council adopted the National Green Building Action Plan. The Plan calls for the construction of one billion square meters of new green buildings by 2015 National Incentive Program and Roadmap to Scale Up RE In 2011, MoHURD set a goal that renewable energy would supply 15 percent of total building energy by 2020 Matches the nation s overall objective for RE s share of primary energy RE currently provides around two percent of building energy 25

26 Additional Activities Mandatory Energy Performance Standards The China National Institute of Standardization (CNIS) estimates that the cumulative energy savings from performance standard for 19 major appliances are 500 billion kwh (since 1990) Savings are equivalent to the annual output of six Three Gorges Dams. National Incentive Program for High Energy Efficiency Appliances In June 2012, MoF, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) initiated a 26.5 billion RMB ($4.2 billion) incentive program to expedite market penetration of five high energy efficiency appliance products (flat panel TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, room air conditioners, and household solar water heaters) CNIS expects savings of 19.6 billion kwh annually. 100 Energy Efficiency Standard Project NDRC and the Standardization Administration of China (SAC) launched the Project in June The object is to develop or revise more than 100 energy efficiency standards over the next two years. 26

27 Some Challenges Buildings Lack of a long-term national goal for the building sector Lack of financing mechanisms for scaling up existing building retrofits Lack of key levers to transform the building materials and products sectors Appliances Capacity building in setting and evaluating standards and labels Lack of local (provincial) means by which to implement and supervise energy labeling Lack of public outreach to educate consumers and retailers 27

28 About RAP The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that: Promote economic efficiency Protect the environment Ensure system reliability Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers Learn more about RAP at Frederick Weston, rweston@raponline.org

29 More stringent codes

30 More stringent codes