Climate Change from the WMO perspective

Transcription

1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Climate Change from the WMO perspective T. Abrate Scientific officer Climate and Water Division World Meteorological Organization WMO Climate & Water Department

2 Weather vs. Climate Weather is a snapshot of the state of atmosphere over a relatively short period of time (usually less than a week) Climate represents an average or collective state of the weather patterns over a long period of time Climate = Time average of weather + climate extremes Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

3 Climate is NOT constant Changes in Climate occur on all time and space scales characteristic of the Earth System

4 Climate Variability and Change Seasonal to interannual fluctuations are considered to be climate variability. Anomalies can be expected to recur at intervals less than a decade and the longterm mean state essentially remains the same. Decadal and longer time scale changes are considered to be part of what is widely known as climate change. Climatic characteristics tend to gradually move towards a substantially different mean state.

5 Future Climate Change Warming in the 21st century greatest over land and at the highest northern latitudes. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 C per decade is projected. Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions. Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.

6 Natural and Human-induced Changes Natural changes and variability: causal mechanisms Orbital variations Solar cycles Volcanoes Oceanic circulation Anthropogenic forcing on climate Greenhouse effect Land-use land cover changes Sulphate aerosols Stratospheric ozone depletion/cfcs

7 Source: IPCC WG1 AR4, 2007

8 Improving Model Resolutions Source: IPCC WG1 AR4, 2007

9 Projecting climate change EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO 2, methane, etc. HEATING EFFECT Climate Forcing. CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. feedbacks Scenarios from population, energy, economics models Carbon cycle and chemistry models Gas properties Coupled climate models Impacts models

10 Why use a Regional Climate Model? GCMs performance in reproducing regional climate detail is rather poor Regional Climate Models (~50 km resolution) add regional detail to GCM simulations - both of current climate and future climate change Better representation of islands, coastal areas and complex topography Finer scale appropriate to realistic simulation of mesoscale weather systems More realistic simulation of extreme events (e.g., improved simulation of severe tropical cyclones)

11 WMO s historical role in Climate Change 1976: First authoritative statement on the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential climate impacts. 1979: First World Climate Conference. Establishment of World Climate Programme (WCP), including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as a co-sponsored programme. 1988: Establishment of the WMO-UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1990: Second World Climate Conference (SWCC) which called for the establishment of a climate convention. Leads to the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992; Establishment of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) World Climate Conference Cg-Ext Establishment of the GFCS

12 Global Framework for Climate Services Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

13 What are Climate Services? Generating and providing information on past, present and future climate, and on its impacts on natural and human systems Historical climate data sets Climate monitoring Climate watches Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions Climate change projections Helping the user access the right product for decision making, and use it appropriately including aspects of uncertainty

14 Components of GFCS User Interface Platform - to provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact Climate Services Information System - to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers Observations and Monitoring - to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated. Research, Modelling and Prediction - to assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas Capacity Building - to support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services. Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism, transport, etc User Interface Climate Services Information System Observations and Research, Modeling Monitoring and Prediction CAPACITY BUILDING

15 Sales/earnings forecasting Water storage replenishment strategies Flexible water production and delivery Storage requirements needs assessment Storage logistics planning Regional Water mngt.. planning Stockpile planning Seasonal demand forecasts Delivery rate setting Hydo regional water mngt.. Strategy Compliance projections estimates Water Operations Aided by Reductions in Weather/Climate Forecast Uncertainty Months Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Hours Minutes Days 6 10 Days 8 14 Days Utility network management Hydo supply management Pipeline laying logistics Customer billing service Water supply forecasting snowmelt Maintenance scheduling Inventory management Pipeline throughput mngt. Pump load determination Infrastructure design Regional infrastructure plan New storage capacity plans Mitigation strategy design Plant/ infrastructure siting Water policy setting Water rate setting Boil water orders Demand forecasting Shortage/drought management Intelligent infrastructure Dispatch management Hazard response Forecast Lead Time

16 Extremes events and disasters

17 Climate extremes and impacts Cold days and nights Warm days and nights Length and number of heat waves Precipitation Tropical Cyclones Droughts Magnitude and frequency of floods Anthropogenic influence

18 Future extremes Warming in temperature extremes Heavy precipitations Tropical cyclones Drought Heat waves Permafrost Glacial retreat

19 Concluding Remarks In many regions, there is limited use of climate information. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability and change through improved access to climate information and prediction/projection products and the use of risk management techniques. Climate adaptation and Climate-related risk management require multi-disciplinary collaborations and crossdisciplinary exchange of information. WMO is looking forward to GFCS as a major step forward in systematically providing climate information for decision making at various levels of climate-sensitive sectors.

20 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Thank You WMO Climate & Water Department