Canada-China Clean Energy Initiative & Annual Workshop

Transcription

1 The 2060 Project: Energy Pathways for BC and Canada Estimating an Idealized Carbon Tax Via Dispatch Protocols Amy Sopinka Ariane Ouellette Lawrence Pitt June 18 th, 2014 Canada-China Clean Energy Initiative & Annual Workshop

2 Context Hoffert et al., 1998: Stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 at pre-industrial levels while meeting the economic assumptions of business as usual implies a massive transition to carbon=free power [ ] NERC IVGTF 2011: Balancing areas should evaluate the reliability issues and opportunities resulting from consolidation or participating in wider-area arrangements [ ] FERC Order 1000 to promote interregional cooperation in transmission planning. Creative Commons Attribution: Bouchecl, May 2009 (

3 United States British Columbia Rest of Canada Generation Type Capacity (GW) Annual Generation (TWh) Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Biogas $59.00 Biomass $ Coal w CCS $88.00 Geothermal $91.00 Natural Gas- Combined Cycle $58.00 Offshore Wind $ Onshore Wind $90.00 Run of River Hydro BC Hydro Resource Options as of $93.00 Solar $ Tidal $ Wave $440.00

4 Driving Questions How do system boundaries affect the potential for BC s planned and/or conceptual low-carbon resources to displace high-carbon generation? Total emissions and idealized carbon price used to compare transmission expansion strategies with the objective to reduce CO2 emissions. Case study: 1. Provincial level with British Columbia and Alberta 2. Federal/Continental level with Pan-Canadian System and Western Interconnection

5 Methodology Development of a zero-order energy-based tool to estimate idealized carbon price in a system with adjustable boundaries. Supply Cushion Demand Gen Type 6 Gen Type 5 Gen Type 4 Gen Type 3 Utilized Generation Gen Type 2 Gen Type 1

6 Assumptions

7 Case Study 1: BC and Alberta British Columbia Alberta 1200/1000 MW 3 scenarios: 1.BC + AB 2.BC AB Integrated 3.BC ROR 150 MW 3150/3000 MW

8 Case Study 1: BC and Alberta 8

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10 Case Study 1: BC and Alberta Scenario Units 2022 MtCO2 (Economic Dispatch) 2022 MtCO2 (Environmental Dispatch) MtCO2 $/tco2 AB + BC Mt $90.80 Integrated AB-BC Integrated AB-BC w/ ROR Mt $61.89 Mt $ Conclusions and Policy Implications: Integration of BC and AB would reduce emissions overall at a carbon price lower than in a separated system. The increment in carbon price from ROR addition is comparable to carbon price in separated system. 10

11 Case Study 2: Western Interconnect and Canada

12 Case Study 2: WECC vs. Pan-Can

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15 Case Study 2: WECC vs. Pan-Can Scenario Units 2022 MtCO2 (Economic Dispatch) 2022 MtCO2 (Environmental Dispatch) MtCO2 $/tco2 Pan-Can Mt $26.04 WECC Mt $36.81 Conclusions and Policy Implications: WECC larger system with more high-carbon generation allows for greater displacement of CO 2 emissions. Threshold between dispatch orders lower in Canada due to absenceof solar power. Possible benefit to develop targeted transmission expansion along side lowcarbon resources. Cost of transmission should be included in carbon price. 15

16 On-going Work Development of regional transmission expansion costing tool to include cost of transmission development into carbon price. Further development of certain scenarios in OSeMOSYS to improve timestep resolution and cost estimates. References Hoffert, M. I., Caldeira, K., Jain, A. K., Haites, E. F., Harvey, L. D. D., Potter, S. D., Wuebbles, D. J. (1998). Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content. Nature, 395, doi: /27638 National Energy Board of Canada. (2013). Canada s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035, (November). NERC. (2012) Long-Term Reliability Assessment. Retrieved from U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2014). EIA International Energy Statistics. Retrieved from

17 Capacity factor (%) Levelized capital cost Fixed O&M Variable O&M (including fuel) Transmission investment Total system levelized cost Total system levelized cost without transmission Plant type Dispatchable Technologies Conventional Coal Advanced Coal Advanced Coal with CCS Natural Gas-fired 0 Conventional Combined Cycle Advanced Combined Cycle Advanced CC with CCS Conventional Combustion Turbine Advanced Combustion Turbine Advanced Nuclear Geothermal Biomass Non-Dispatchable 0 Technologies Wind Wind-Offshore Solar PV Solar Thermal Hydro