Keegan Moyer Byron Woertz Bradley Nickell. TEPPC RTEP Update October 5 th, 2012 SPSC/CREPC/RPF Meeting

Transcription

1 Keegan Moyer Byron Woertz Bradley Nickell TEPPC RTEP Update October 5 th, 2012 SPSC/CREPC/RPF Meeting

2 RTEP Update Today s Discussion Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) 10-Year Study Results Scenario Planning Long-term Planning Tool Looking forward to the 2013 Plans 2

3 TEPPC 2012 Study Program Results 2022 Common Case results 2022 Stress Test results o Original request and study context o Study design o Results These studies only cover 8 of the ~75 high-priority 10-year studies in the 2011 and 2012 Study Programs 3

4 2022 Common Case Results and Assumptions The expected future and starting point for all other 10-year studies

5

6 Selection based on

7 Stress Test Studies Description and Goal

8 SPSC Study Requests and Stress Test Cases Original SPSC requests o Lower loads (DSM, DR, DG) o High loads o Resource additions/removals Concept: Bound the robustness problem by going up/down in renewable energy 6,000 GWh Stress Tests Renewable energy 2022 Common Case baseline level RPS off-ramp study

9 Summary Examine the Robustness of the Power Grid Evaluate systems ability to integrate and deliver added resources to load, subject to transmission constraints Rough proxy for a number of futures: o High gas renewables even more competitive on price o High load more RPS resources, more renewable energy o CO2 Policy fossil fuels penalized, renewables favored o State policy Increase in state RPS, more renewable energy None of these are explicitly modeled as this set of studies are designed as indicators Robust planning: understand how the system may behave under a variety of future conditions 9

10 Caveats No additional transmission added (as requested) Small addition of RE is not intended to and will not solely justify addition of large interregional project Capital cost analysis will not be performed as it is outside the intent of the study 10

11 Stress Test Studies Study Design

12 Stress-Test: PC8-PC15 Resource Selection Process Calculate ratios of planned renewables in TEPPC 2022 Common Case Do not include existing resources Did not include DG IRP and LRS data Apply ratio to study build-out of 6,000 GWh Concept: development trends are best representation of what could be added to each state More recourses available than what is identified in WREZ More granular information from CPUC/CAISO Extrapolation Method Locate resources using WREZ peer-analysis tool

13 7,000 Stress-Test Cases Resource Additions What does each state s 6,000 GWh addition looks like? 6,000 5,000 4,000 Solar GWh Wind Solar PV GWh 3,000 Evaluated as one study Per CPUC Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal GWh Geothermal Biomass RPS 2,000 1,000 - Arizona Basin -NV Basin - UT California Montana New Mexico Oregon Washington Wyoming CA Assumption: Resources from CPUC scenario that were originally decremented for Common Case netshort are added

14 Stress-Test: RPS-Off Ramp Resource Removal Process 2022 RPS Energy How much of RPS is acheived after removing Class 3? Total RPS Energy Req (GWh) in 2022 Total RPS Achieved w/o Future Resources RPS Energy (GWh) AB AZ BC CA CO ID MEX MT NV NM OR TX* UT WA WY

15 Stress Test Studies Sample of Results

16 Congestion vs. Utilization and the Robustness Question High Utilization Focus on Regional Impacts + Path limit P73 Flow (MW) 8760 hrs P66+P65 P8 P36 - Path limit Congestion P35 + Path limit P46 Flow (MW) 8760 hrs P47 - Path limit

17 California Stress Test Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Assumptions Transmission Results 100% 90% Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Generation Impacts Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Stress test had only minor impact on transmission utilization on major paths. Adding addition gen in CA reduces requirement for imports. No additional congestion as a result. Key Finding Robustness Indicator

18 Montana Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 P8 congested as a result. MT system is relatively isolated and is easily stressed. Robustness Indicator

19 RPS Off-Ramp Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Decrease in congestion on major paths. No increase observed. Robustness Indicator Production Cost CO

20 Stress Test Summary 1 System seems to be robust given the CCTA and Common Case as a starting point. NA NA Exceptions: Montana and Wyoming 2 When more renewable energy is added to the system, gas is the marginal fuel in all studies (except Montana), given our current price assumptions. NA NA CA combined cycle gas units are the most marginal resources. Robustness Indicator

21 Scenario Planning & 20-Year Studies

22 Scenario Planning Drives the 20-year Planning Process Plausible futures but not predictions o Provides context to understand what could impact the demand for electric power services o Policy, Technology, Environment, Economy Focus question: how will the bulk power transmission grid in the West need to change? Identifies strategic choices for planning o Sweet spot: what makes sense in all scenarios? Scenarios Proxies for Modeling Identify Resources and Loads Optimize Transmission Plans & Policy Implications 22

23 TEPPC Long-term Planning Scenarios Economic Growth To Have and Have Not Widespread economic growth Increasing standards of living Evolutionary changes in technology The New Frontier Widespread economic growth Increasing standards of living Paradigm changes in technology Technological Innovation Costs Matter Narrow and slow economic growth Stagnating standards of living Evolutionary changes in technology Renewables to the Rescue Narrow and slow economic growth Stagnating standards of living Paradigm changes in technology 23 The Long-Term Planning Tool will be used to analyze the long-term scenarios

24 Scenarios to Study Cases The LTPT is being used to identify transmission expansion needed in each scenario o What can be modeled in each scenario? Technology availability, capital costs, fuel prices, tax policies, policy drivers o Metrics Definition Task Force defining scenario modeling parameters o Differentiation between scenarios Result: study cases that describe each scenario o Transmission additions needed for each scenario o Environmentally-preferred corridors for expansion 24

25 Long-term Planning Tool What is it? The Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT) is a GIS-based capital expansion planning tool for performing long-term transmission planning studies Optimizes new generation and transmission build out Incorporates reliability, policy, environmental, and cost considerations 25 Understand potential energy futures and identify gaps in transmission.

26 Long-term Planning Tool Example

27 27 Generation Cost Update Costs & Performance Resource Capital Costs Natural Gas-fired cost and performance Technical improvements to wind turbine performance Solar thermal with storage cost and performance Solar PV performance Spreadsheet-based calculation tool Incorporated into LTPT

28 Transmission Capital Cost Update Understanding geographic differences Land Costs Transmission Line Cost Updates Substation Cost Updates AFUDC/Overhead Cost Assumptions Comparisons to actual project costs Spreadsheet-based calculation tool Incorporated into LTPT 28 28

29 Incorporating Environmental Data Environmental Data Task Force (EDTF) Develop and incorporate information on land, wildlife, cultural, historical, archaeological, and water resources into the transmission planning process o Created Environmental Risk categories based on a number of land-use environmental risks o Working on mitigation cost calculations Incorporate water availability information 29

30 EDTF Risk Classes 1-4 Blue line connects endpoints Darker areas = higher risk category

31 LTPT with Env Overlay Semi-transparent EDTF overlay on terrain map Semi-transparent corridor over EDTF and terrain maps

32 Energy-Water Nexus Water Availability Example

33 WECC 2013 Interconnection-wide Transmission Plans

34 2013 Transmission Plans Plan Development Timeline Jan Dec 2012 Finish analytic work and draft study results reports Sep 2013 Apr Jul 2013 Submit Plan Nov Mar 2013 Stakeholder and Jul Aug 2013 to DOE Create DRAFT Plan public review, Finalize Plan Finalize Plan Report Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2012 Sep WECC Regional Transmission Plan Development Timeline Feb 2013 TEPPC Meeting May 2013 TEPPC Meeting Aug 2013 TEPPC Meeting Mar 2013 WECC Board Meeting Jun 2013 WECC Board Meeting Sep 2013 WECC Board Meeting Approve Plan

35 2013 Transmission Plans Connecting the Dots How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate changes in the supply and demand for electric energy? 10-year understanding impacts of near-term decisions (bottoms-up) 20-year understanding drivers of potential energy futures (top-down) The Plans tell the story of how they are connected 35 Understanding the impacts of decisions, not determining what should be done

36 2013 Transmission Plans Enhancements from 2011 Cost of cycling Flexibility Reserve calculation Environmental data Capital cost calculation methodology Improved demand-side modeling Energy-water nexus Connection of studies with scenarios Reliability analysis of the 2022 Common Case 2010 Benchmarking Case 36

37 37 Get Involved! Technical Reviews SWG Meeting October 25th TAS Meeting October 29th 2012 Study Program Result Webinars - October 19th - October 31st (In-person Tech Session) - November 16th - November 30th - December 12th (in-person)

38 Questions?

39 Stress Test Studies Full Results

40 California Stress Test Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Assumptions Transmission Results 100% 90% Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Generation Impacts Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Stress test had only minor impact on transmission utilization on major paths. Adding addition gen in CA reduces requirement for imports. No additional congestion. Key Finding Robustness Indicator

41 7,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC8 California Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000

42 California Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65 P36 Resource Additions 6,000 GWh Wind 100% 90% P35 Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% + 6,000 GWh P46 P47 Biomass RPS 10% 0%

43 Arizona Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Increase in AZ to CA imports. Congestion on P29. More detailed analysis required. Robustness Indicator

44 7,000 6,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC9 Arizona Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000-3,000

45 Arizona Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh 100% P66+P65 P36 Wind Solar PV 90% 80% 70% P35 Solar CSP6 60% Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal 50% 40% 30% 20% P46 + 6,000 GWh P47 Biomass RPS 10% 0%

46 New Mexico Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Increase in P22 (SW of 4- Corners) utilization, but not congested. Other paths are not heavily impacted. Robustness Indicator

47 New Mexico Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 100% Decrease in congestion (-5%) Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh P66+P65 P36 Wind Solar PV 90% 80% P35 Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% P46 P47 + 6,000 GWh 0%

48 Wyoming Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Some sensitivity observed P29 and P36. Large change in RMPA to Basin flow. Robustness Indicator

49 6,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC11 Wyoming Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000

50 Wyoming Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65 + 6,000 GWh Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh P36 Wind Solar PV 100% 90% 80% P35 +9% 70% Solar CSP6 60% Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS 50% 40% 30% P46 P47 Geothermal 20% Biomass RPS 10% 0%

51 Montana Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO P8 congested as a result. MT system is relatively isolated and is easily stressed Robustness Indicator

52 7,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC12 Montana Stress Test GWh Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3,000

53 Montana Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 + 6,000 GWh Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65 +24% Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh P36 100% Wind Solar PV 90% 80% 70% P35 Solar CSP6 60% Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS 50% 40% 30% P46 P47 Geothermal 20% Biomass RPS 10% 0%

54 Washington Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Small impact Robustness Indicator

55 7,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC13 Washington Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000-3,000

56 Washington Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 + 6,000 GWh P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65-5% Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh P36 100% Wind 90% Solar PV 80% 70% P35 Solar CSP6 60% Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS 50% 40% 30% P46 P47 Geothermal 20% Biomass RPS 10% 0%

57 Oregon Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Very little congestion observed Robustness Indicator

58 7,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC14 Oregon Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000-3,000

59 Oregon Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) P73 P66+P65 + 6,000 GWh P8 P36 Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh 100% Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 90% 80% 70% 60% + 6,000 GWh P35 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal 50% 40% 30% 20% P46 P47 Biomass RPS 10% 0%

60 Basin Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV Solar CSP6 Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Increased utilization, but not much congestion Robustness Indicator

61 4,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC15 Basin Stress Test Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 3,000 2,000 1,000 GWh 0-1,000-2,000-3,000

62 Basin Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65 P36 Resource Additions - 6,000 GWh Wind Solar PV 100% 90% 80% 70% + 3,000 GWh + 3,000 GWh P35 Solar CSP6 60% Solar CSP0 Small Hydro RPS 50% 40% 30% P46 P47 Geothermal 20% Biomass RPS 10% 0%

63 RPS Off-Ramp Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Increase in congestion (+5%) No change Decrease in congestion (-5%) Generation Impacts Key Finding Wind Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS Combustion Turbine Pumped Storage Combined Cycle Production Cost CO2 Percent Change: Generation, CO2, Prod. Cost Decrease in congestion on major paths. No increase observed. Is it apparent that our system built for RPS compliance is highly versatile and can accommodate more local/thermal generation? Robustness Indicator

64 20,000 Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs PC16 RPS Off-Ramp Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Renewable Other 15,000 10,000 5,000 GWh 0-5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000

65 RPS-Off Ramp Stress Test Increase in congestion (+5%) No change P73 P8 Decrease in congestion (-5%) P66+P65-5% P36 P35 P46 P47