Health Canada Jim Frehs Climate Change and Health Office Health Canada

Transcription

1 Helping Canadians Adapt to a Changing Climate: Developing Heat Resilient Communities and Individuals in Canada Health Canada Jim Frehs Climate Change and Health Office Health Canada

2 Workshop Outline Canada s Changing Climate Climate Change and Heat Extreme Heat and Health Individuals Most at Risk Communicating to the Public Developing Heat Resiliency

3 Climate Change and Health Vulnerability Assessment Table of Contents Introduction: Health in a Changing Climate Assessment Methods Impacts of Climate Change on Water, Food, Vector and Rodent-borne Diseases in Canada Air Quality, Climate and Health Canadian Vulnerabilities to Natural Hazards and Extreme Weather Health Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec Health Impacts of Climate Change in Canada s North Vulnerabilities, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in Canada

4 Increase in average surface temperatures Increase in average sea levels Decrease in average snow cover Source: IPCC Climate Change Report 2007

5 Exposure will increase in the future Very likely 90 99% chance

6 Climate Change is Happening Source Environment Canada

7 Increase in the Frequency of Natural Disasters Frequency of Natural Disasters in Canada ( ) Number of Natural Disasters Wildfires Avalanches Cold Waves/Heat Waves Droughts Earthquakes/Landslides Floods Freezing Rain Hail/Thunderstorms Hurricane/Typhoon Storms Tornados Tsunamis/Storm Surges Year Period Canadian Disaster Database, 2006

8 Climate Change Health Risks Are Real Spreading of Infectious Diseases Lyme Disease by Deer ticks Extreme Weather Events Manitoba Flood 1997 Ontario s Most Expensive Weather Disaster August 2005, $500 million Extreme Heat Events All-time Night-time Heat Record, 2006

9 Extreme heat is becoming an increased health risk in Canada

10 How many days after the onset of an Extreme Heat Event are people most at-risk?

11 Most deaths occur 2-3 days following the onset of high temperatures Degrees Celsius (max) Daily Deaths Montreal, June 1994

12 Chicago Heat Wave 1995 Most deaths in Chicago occurred after onset of extremely high temperature Source: Semenza, NEJM 1996

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14 Source: Klinenberg, 2003

15 European Heat Wave 2003 Seven days with temperatures of more than 40 C (104 F) were recorded. How many excess deaths were attributed to the European Heat Wave? Over excess deaths In France alone, 14,802 people (mostly elderly) died from heat Most dead came from a specific group: elderly people not requiring medial care, living alone, without immediate family. Source: Robine et al. 2008

16 What provincial capital is predicted to have the most hot days in the future? Toronto Fredericton Winnipeg

17 Projected number of hot days in Canada Today 2050 Days Fredericton Quebec Toronto London Winnipeg Calgary Victoria Number of hot days above 30 C Source: Hengeveld et al. 2005

18 Projected number of hot days in Canada Today 2050 Days Fredericton Quebec Toronto London Winnipeg Calgary Victoria Number of hot days above 30 C Source: Hengeveld et al. 2005

19 Heat in Canada Heat is causing deaths in Canada BUT Communities are already doing something about it! Toronto: Spatial Synoptic Classification Montreal: Heat Alert and Response System Source: Gosselin et al. 2007

20 Adaptation can save lives The 1995 heatwave in US midwest caused 514 deaths in Chicago However, a similar heatwave in 1999 resulted in only 119 deaths (4X less) due to better response plans WHO study indicated that most of the 15,000 heat wave deaths in France in 2003 were preventable Recent study (2008) indicates that a similar heat wave in France in 2006 lead to approx. 4,000 less deaths due to implementation of alert system

21 On average, how many degrees warmer is the urban air temperature compared to non-urban areas? 1.5 C 3.4 C 5.6 C

22 Urban Heat Islands The transformation of nonurban areas into urban infrastructure creates an environment where greater amounts of solar radiation are: Pink means HOT Example: Montreal Source: Stone Image B. Landsat , Geobase 2004

23 Who are the at-risk (Vulnerable) populations in your community?

24 Vulnerable Populations

25 How many people will be considered elderly (65+) in the next 20 years? 50 years? Percentage of Canadian population 65 years and over, Source: Human Resource, government of Canada

26 The proportion of seniors in the population will double Percentage of Canadian population 65 years and over, Source: Human Resource, government of Canada

27 Where is the Heat in Canada? A simulation of projected changes in annual mean temperatures for to Source Atlas of Canada, 2003

28 And Where are the Vulnerable Populations? Location of seniors in Canada Large population of seniors (65 +) reside in Canada. Source: Statistics Canada

29 Heat Health - Challenges Scientific basis for messaging Public perception of risks Changing behaviour of vulnerable populations Reaching public health authorities Communicating accurate and informed messages

30 Seniors are least likely to. Perceptions of Seniors believe that climate change is definitely occurring think that climate change poses risks to health today think that either they or their community are vulnerable to climate change impacts name seniors as a population that is vulnerable to health impacts of climate change Source: Environics, 2008

31 Perception of Risk from Heat waves Higher risk Lesser impact Higher risk Higher impact Second-hand smoke Obesity Heart disease Air pollution Chemical pollution Pandemic flu Pesticides in food CLIMATE CHANGE % saying "major risk" Heat waves Lower risk Lower impact Extreme cold Tap water West Nile % saying "health risk increasing" Lower risk Higher impact Environics, 2008

32 Knowledge of Health Risks Respiratory/breathing problems 22 Infectious diseases/ West Nile/pandemic flu Cancer Air quality impacts Heat stroke Poor nutrition/food supply Water quality impacts dk/na 34 Environics, 2008

33 Preparing for Extreme Heat Communicating Risks to Health

34 Effectiveness Heat-Health Messaging Perception of risk is closely linked to behavioural action Characteristics of vulnerable population groups play a role in how they respond to health warnings Media plays key role in educating and shaping perception of risk Research results indicate that many do not change their behaviours even after receiving the heat alert warning Berry et al. 2009

35 Results: Where Does Extreme Heat Fit as a Health Message? Number of Websites West Nile Virus Extreme Heat Drinking Water Safety Food Safety Sun Safety Beach Water Safety Extreme Weather (Natural) Flooding Lyme Disease Extreme Cold Health Impacts of Climate Change Source: Berry et al In publication

36 100% 80% Consistency of Heat Messaging Preliminary Results (Continued) % 40% 20% % 4 3 Exercise Acclimatization Amount of Fluid Intake Salt Tablets Medications Air Conditioning Misting/Damping Fans Alcoholic and Caffeinated Hats Appropriate Misleading *based on the 76 heat-health factsheets found which included a total of 478 statements Source: Berry et al In publication

37 What is the best choice on a hot day?

38 Who should acclimatize to the heat BEFORE an Extreme Heat Event? Who should not?

39 What is the best choice of hat on a hot day?

40 Which is the better message? Use fans to circulate the air Use fans to draw cool air at night, but do not rely on fan as a primary cooling device during extended periods of excessive heat Best answer: Use a fan unless the temperature exceeds 35 C and it is very humid

41 Are people aware of increased risk to heat when taking medication?

42 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NO 80 % My doctor/pharmacist told my meds make me vulnerable 80% of people are NOT AWARE medications make them vulnerable to heat YES 20 % Kosatsky et al. KAP Surveys

43 3 1 2 Which Bond is cooler? (or dressed more appropriately for the sun)

44 Heat Health in Canada What are we doing about it?

45 Helping Canadians Adapt to a Changing Climate In Dec at the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2007 (Bali- Indonesia) the Government of Canada announced 4-year initiative to help Canadians adapt to a changing climate change Activities to be funded include: 1. Research to improve climate change scenarios; 2. A program to assist Northerners in assessing key vulnerabilities and opportunities for adaptation; 3. A program on climate change and health adaptation in northern / Inuit communities; 4. A program to develop regional adaptation programs and risk management tools; 5. Research on heat and infectious disease alert and response systems

46 Developing Heat Resiliency An Overview 1. Heat-Health Science addressing knowledge gaps 2. Clinical Competencies helping health care workers advise/diagnose/treat patients and clients 3. Pilot Heat Alert and Response Systems developing and testing warning systems 4. Health Messaging helping promote awareness and enhance personal adaptation 5. Partnership and Dissemination establishing networks

47 Heat-Health Science Objective To address a number of critical knowledge gaps that currently hinder the effective diagnosis, prevention and management of heat-related morbidity and mortality. For example Understanding heat health thresholds and the triggers for calling heat alerts

48 Objective: Clinical Competencies To enable health professionals to better advise their clients/patients on how to prepare for heat events, and to rapidly diagnose and treat them, if they have experienced a heat illness

49 Pilot Heat Alert and Response Systems Objective Develop and test the effectiveness of heat alert and response systems (HARS) in four pilot communities For example: Testing differences in HARS in several communities of various sizes and capacities Evaluating current HARS - Montreal, Toronto

50 Health Messaging Objective Identify best practices for heat-health messaging to enhancing personal adaptation to heat For Example Production of education and outreach materials for protecting the most vulnerable populations

51 Dissemination and Partnerships Objective Develop networks of stakeholders to support extreme heat and health research and program objectives and for disseminating products developed through the project How can you be involved? Heat Forum 2011 Heat Sharing Network

52 Next steps Develop and implement HARS over the next two summers in pilot communities Conduct simulation exercises in pilot communities Begin testing of heat health messaging and individual perceptions of heat Conduct evaluations of existing HARS Engage health professionals in discussions on heat Undertake targeted communications activities for heat conference

53 Health risks from climate change are real Many Canadians are vulnerable to the hazards such as extreme heat Adaptation is needed to protect Canadians We can learn from others Overall Key Messages Health Canada is supporting adaptation through its extreme heat initiative Contact us: